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Guangzhou 14 new! Housing enterprises no longer look at the "golden point" when selling buildings?

Every year, "Golden September and Silver 10" is the key promotion link for real estate enterprises to bet on their treasures, and many properties are selected to open on 1 1 day. However, since the beginning of this year, the trend of new sales in Guangzhou has become more and more obvious. Many properties are pushed from the end of August to the middle of September in advance, hoping to attract customers as soon as possible and speed up the completion of the year-end payment task. According to statistics, there are 14 sets of first-hand houses opened or pushed in Guangzhou on the eve of the "Eleventh" and holidays this year, totaling 2,306 sets, which is 3 sets less than the same period last year, but the total push volume has increased by 2 1%.

Environment: money is tight, and housing enterprises admit that the financial pressure is great.

On May 17 this year, the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) issued the Notice on Carrying out the Work of "Consolidating the Achievements of Combating Disorders and Promoting Compliance Construction", clearly requiring commercial banks, trusts, leasing and other financial institutions not to carry out real estate financing in violation of regulations, which became an important node to tighten real estate financing in the first half of the year.

In August, the regulatory authorities stepped up efforts to rectify the chaos in the housing market where institutions illegally transfused blood. On August 9th, China Banking Regulatory Commission issued a document to carry out a special inspection of bank real estate business in 32 cities, involving bank real estate-related loans such as land reserve loans, development loans, personal mortgage loans and housing lease loans, and strictly investigate all kinds of illegal acts of misappropriating funds into the real estate industry. On August 30th, China Banking Regulatory Commission issued a circular on the on-site inspection of some local small and medium-sized banks, criticizing them for providing financing for real estate projects in violation of regulations.

"Now the loan amount is relatively tight and the time is relatively long. The most important thing is that interest rates are unstable. " A few days ago, when a reporter stepped on a real estate in Zengcheng, the salesperson said so. She said that now, in cooperation with several major banks, the loan interest rates are basically floating 10%~20%. "Now near the end of the year, the approval cycle of bank loans has been lengthened, which is actually a big test for our developers."

On September 6th, the central bank announced that it had decided to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points on September 6th, 1965, and reduce the deposit reserve ratio by 65,438+0 percentage points. The long-term funds released by RRR's interest rate cut are about 900 billion yuan, of which RRR's interest rate cut is about 800 billion yuan and targeted cuts to required reserve ratios's is about 654.38+00 billion yuan. However, industry analysts believe that RRR's interest rate cut is mainly to support the real economy, and the real estate policy is not too loose. It is not ruled out that the loosening of funds brought by RRR interest rate cuts will bring some boost to the real estate industry, but under the tightening real estate policy, the impact is not great.

However, it is worth noting that on September 20th, the new loan market quotation (LPR) was released: 1 year LPR was 4.2%, down 5 basis points from the previous period; The 5-year LPR is 4.85%, which remains unchanged. Some analysts pointed out that the LPR interest rate over five years remains unchanged, indicating that under the background of current real estate market regulation, the decision-makers hope to prevent the house price from rising too fast by stabilizing the mortgage interest rate.

Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, said that the second-hand housing data showed a downward adjustment of housing prices in 20 cities for three consecutive months, which was the first time in the last two years. Judging from the changes in different cities, both new houses and second-hand houses in first-and second-tier cities have dropped significantly. "Xiaoyangchun in the first half of 20 19 has passed." Zhang Dawei said.

Supply: "A hundred flowers blossom" in areas where stocks decrease and goods increase.

According to the monitoring of Guangzhou Zhongyuan Research and Development Department, there are 2,306 sets of first-hand houses 14 in Guangzhou on the eve of the "Eleventh" and holidays this year, which is 3 sets less than the same period of last year, but the total pushing volume has increased by 2 1% compared with the previous year. The characteristics of "the number of first-hand houses has decreased and the volume of goods has increased" are obvious. Generally speaking, the push of goods in the peripheral areas is obviously greater than that in the central area, but at present, the Guangzhou market is still dominated by a small amount of push, and the popularity is created by controlling the supply rhythm.

From a regional perspective, the main areas opened during the May 1 or 11 period in recent four years have experienced changes from "Zengcheng-Panyu" to "Zengcheng-Huangpu" and then to "Zengcheng-Nansha". In addition, the proportion of new products launched by the two major supply areas in the past has exceeded 50%, and the hot features are remarkable. This year, the "tradition" of the "Eleventh" hot spot was broken, and the supply of new houses in various districts showed the trend of "letting a hundred flowers blossom". The main supply area only accounts for 20% of Zengcheng, while Panyu and Huangpu, which are tied for second place, only account for 17% each. The industry believes that this is mainly due to the more unified land supply in Guangzhou in recent years.

During the Golden Week this year, the average supply of 165 units per tray was 46% higher than that of 1 12 units in the same period of 20 18, and the single-tray supply capacity was significantly improved. Guangzhou Zhongyuan Research and Development Department believes that this is mainly due to the optimization of the property market regulation measures in June last year, 5438+065438+ 10, especially the acceleration of the number of new central projects. Take the Guangzhou Iron and Steel Project as an example. In the same period last year, "only 50 sets were approved at a time". At present, the same plate project can be approved for 200~300 units at a time. In addition, last year's "Eleventh" improvement projects such as Changlingju, Jiaomen, Huadu Huashan and Zengcheng Shilou were concentrated in the market, and the number of such projects with long transaction cycle was once small, which indirectly lowered the average supply level last year; On the other hand, this year's "Eleventh" push goods, mainly high-rise villa units, with stronger supply capacity.

Phenomenon: the goods are scattered, and many projects are "robbed" and "delayed"

Every year, "Golden September and Silver 10" is a key promotion link for real estate enterprises to bet on, and many properties will choose to open on the 11 th holiday. However, since 20 18, the trend of new sales in Guangzhou has become more and more obvious. This year, developers push the goods more dispersed, and many projects have rushed or postponed the push plan.

According to industry insiders, from the perspective of developers, pushing goods from the end of August to mid-September in advance can attract customers as soon as possible and accelerate the completion of the year-end payment task; From the buyer's point of view, because the price and supply in Guangzhou market tend to be stable for a long time, customers keep a rational attitude. The situation of "grabbing the market" in the early years is no longer there. Many customers choose to travel and return home during the "Eleventh" period. In order to facilitate customers, real estate enterprises generally push goods in advance.

Judging from the characteristics of the rush-to-run project, from August 24th to September 7th, the new products were mainly at middle and high prices. Including Zijunfu in Gezhouba, Guangzhou Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. and Pearl River Flower City in Tianhe Olympic Sports Center, among which Pearl River Flower City obtained the pre-sale certificate on September 6, and sold 400 sets in total. During the "Golden September and Silver 10" period, "sufficient ammunition" was opened twice in September (9.7 and 9.2 1). In the peripheral area, the high-quality subway plates in Nansha and Panyu, jinzhou area District and Xinzhuang respectively launched the Cisco Smart City with high-end plates Yuexiu Tianqi and 12 light years.

Guangzhou Zhongyuan Research and Development Department believes that due to the long storage time of mid-to high-end plates and the insufficient supply of first-hand plates except Guangzhou Steel in recent years, the intentional customers are highly concentrated, so the early opening of the project is conducive to the transaction. After the Mid-Autumn Festival, all districts only need to start "testing the water". At this time, the sectors promoted by new projects are generally well supplied (such as Huangge, Shitan and zhu cun), and the competition is fierce. It is conducive to attracting wait-and-see buyers and grabbing the "first soup" in the market.

In addition, this year, except for some large markets such as Asian Games Town and Cuihu International City, which chose to push goods during the Eleventh Holiday, other major primary markets basically maintained a stable selling state. As early as July and August, a large number of pre-sale certificates were obtained for some projects, and about 500 sets of saleable stocks were basically maintained in major markets in various districts. Guangzhou Zhongyuan Research and Development Department predicts that during the "Eleventh" period, each district will launch a small number of promotional units and special rooms, and maintain a stable sales state.

In addition to "rushing to run", there are also many "delayed orders" on the market this year, which are expected to be put on the market after the 11 th holiday. Guangzhou Zhongyuan Research and Development Department pointed out that some "delayed projects" have objective reasons that the construction progress does not meet the requirements of obtaining pre-sale permit, so they have to adjust the launch time. Another part of the delay is because developers need longer time to "build momentum". For example, Huadu Lake and Nansha Lingshan Island are brand-new sectors, with high land acquisition cost and unknown market acceptance. Therefore, during their stay in Jin Jiu, developers usually carry out "propaganda offensive", for example, by holding press conferences, advertising and setting up demonstration sites in popular business districts. Start the popularity of the project first and then push the goods at the right time.

Layout: Hot plate focuses on "cost performance" to attract customers.

According to the monitoring of Guangzhou Zhongyuan Research and Development Department, Asian Games Town is the "pillar" during the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period, and the new Asian Games Town "Tian Yun" group will soon enter the market, and it is expected that 400 sets of new goods will be launched. In addition, it is expected that the brand-new grand city Science City will enter the market before the festival. With the sales of Poly Roland International and Ke Cheng Villa, it is expected to attract commuter customers from the eastern subway to enter the market.

In addition to the traditional volume plate, Conghua Jiekou and Zengcheng Shitan benefit from the high cost performance advantage of 20 19, and their attention is constantly improving. From June to August this year, 2,700 sets were sold in Conghua, a year-on-year increase of 10%. Driven by the favorable commuting on the 14 line and the demand spillover caused by the price increase of the knowledge city plate, more and more office workers in Baiyun and Huangpu are concerned about the Conghua property market.

In addition to the traditional large-scale Cuihu International City, the brand-new Panjin Zhongjiang Yuefu and Fiona Fang Yunshan Poetic Cloud Creek are officially launched, and the regional heat is on the rise. In addition, some stone beach projects gave the high price of OCT to winNo. In July this year, Lunatone Beach A 19022 Zhengtian Village was used as a selling point to stimulate buyers to accelerate the pace of entering the market.

Foreground forecast

The "customer grab war" may start after the holiday.

According to the current "Eleventh" pre-judgment, during the holiday season, most projects in Guangzhou will be directly operated, or a small number of one-price units and lottery activities will be launched to attract customers, but the overall market turnover is stable. From the perspective of local sectors, the price of developers may be relatively "tough" in sectors where subway commuting and supply are relatively scarce; There is a great possibility of making small profits in the highly competitive sector.

Take the survey conducted by Guangzhou Zhongyuan Research and Development Department in September as an example. In the sectors such as Nansha jinzhou area Area and Tianhe Olympic Sports Center, where the primary supply is relatively tight and the land price of new land around them is relatively high, developers generally hold the mentality of "not worrying about selling" and sell at a regular price during the "Golden September and Silver 10" period, and the promotion efforts are weak. In Huangpu Knowledge City, because the 2 1 line runs through Tianhe not long ago, and a large number of second-hand units in the plate have not yet entered the market, some buildings in the knowledge city even show a slight upward trend. Based on the "tail-jumping" characteristics of primary market transactions in recent years, Guangzhou Zhongyuan Research and Development Department believes that a further "customer-grabbing war" may be launched after the holiday, especially in the fourth quarter of this year, a large number of brand-new projects will enter the market, and the trading atmosphere will be more enthusiastic.

expert opinion/advice

In fact, there are three shortages in Guangzhou market now, namely, there is no shortage of housing demand, no shortage of favorable policies and no shortage of market confidence. First, housing demand is likely to continue to be released, especially some wait-and-see housing demand will also actively enter the market in the near future. Second, with the regional development and various rail transit construction, the suburban market in Guangzhou is active. Third, in the past two years, the housing appreciation opportunities in Guangzhou are obvious, and the market has sufficient confidence. Therefore, it is expected that Guangzhou's "Golden September and Silver 10" performance will be good this year, or the market fair in Guangzhou will be more active. Considering that the recent market is still dominated by price reduction and promotion, it is expected that some properties are still willing to give certain discounts or concessions, and buyers can actively grasp them.

—— Yan Yuejin, research director of think tank center of Yiju Research Institute

Recently, the transaction volume of the property market has come up, but only compared with the downturn in June, July and August, the overall increase is actually not large. Since we have not achieved the goal of substantially recovering funds, the promotion will definitely continue in the next "Eleventh" Golden Week, otherwise the problem of tight project funds will not be solved. How much room is there for price reduction? In addition to some regional real estate projects that have achieved the goal of recovering funds, the "Eleventh" is likely to increase preferential treatment for those projects that do not sell much in the Mid-Autumn Festival.

-real estate expert Deng Haozhi

As of September 23rd, there were 4,080 first-hand houses in Guangzhou in September, covering an area of 472,000 square meters, and 4 172 houses were sold, covering an area of 458,000 square meters. Although the developer's enthusiasm for supply has increased, the marketing action is still conservative, so the transaction performance is flat. It is expected that the developer will increase the promotion efforts near the Golden Week. Starting from 10, there will be a wave of more extensive preferential wars in the fourth quarter.

—— Chief Market Analyst, Guangzhou Ke Rui

Little Xiao Wen.

Some properties "Golden September and Silver 10" push new information.

Liwan District

Gezhouba Guangzhou Zijun House will add143m2 four rooms.

Hyatt Bay in New World added 76~ 143 square meters of products, with two to five rooms.

Tianhe district

There are 7 new buildings in Pearl River Flower City, 1 15~ 139 square meters, with four to five rooms.

Yunshanghui launched 30~55 square meters of creative space, 155~900 square meters of corporate headquarters.

Haizhu district

Yuexiu Tian Yue Jiangwan is the first riverview duplex unit with a construction area of about102 ~140m2.

The main building area of Fahua Jiangnan Mansion is about 128 ~ 143 square meters, with four bedrooms.

Baiyun district

On August 3rd1day, Witten Yunxing launched a two-to four-bedroom apartment with an area of 79 ~130m2.

The southbound building area of China Resources Land Runfu is about 105~ 133 square meters, and 3+ 1 to 4+ 1 duplex units will be launched soon.

Langyun Garden Planning 12 1 flat, duplex house1~115 flat, villa products.

Huangpu District

Vanke Happiness Word of Mouth Vanke Mountain View City Moon Mountain Project has been promoted.

Huabiao Peak Lake Yujing will launch 328~586 square meters of five-to nine-bedroom large-sized units.

Panyu district

A new set of 28-story ordinary residence with four bedrooms and an area of about 286 square meters was launched in the fourth phase of Xinghewan Peninsula.

In September, the Asian Games Town launched 89~ 135 square meters three-to four-bedroom apartment.

nansha district

Jialin Heju Zun Yue Tai is the first to promote two-to three-bedroom apartment with a construction area of about 76~96 square meters.

Jinke Cui Bo Zhu Ming will push 80~ 138 square meters three-four-room river view residence.

CCCC Blue Bay is expected to sell 1 villa with a construction area of about 144 ~ 237 square meters.

Agile Lugang is expected to build residential units with a main construction area of about 34~90 square meters.

Hua Hui center commercial project, promoting 50~70 square meters LOFT office apartment, South Sea view.