China Academy of Social Sciences: The real estate market will usher in a new round of adjustment in the second half of the year.

20 19 "Stabilizing house prices" is the keynote. In megacities and big cities with large population inflow and high housing prices, we will actively revitalize the existing land and speed up the construction of rental housing. Continue to maintain the continuity and stability of regulatory policies, strengthen the two-way regulation of supply and demand in the real estate market, improve the housing supply structure, support reasonable demand for self-occupation, resolutely curb speculative real estate speculation, and ensure market stability.

The tightness of real estate policy depends on the prosperity of real estate market development, which has the nature of countercyclical adjustment. Whether it is "one city, one policy" or "one city, one policy", it is necessary for every city to take control measures according to the actual situation of the local real estate market. This is the basic principle of real estate regulation in the future, that is, to maintain the healthy and stable development of the real estate market without systematic risks.

At present, under the guidance of the strategic positioning of "housing and not speculating", the real estate market adheres to "one city, one policy" and implements the main responsibility of the city, and the regulation of the real estate market has achieved remarkable results. In the first half of 20 19, the real estate market generally showed a steady but declining trend, the sales area of various properties showed a negative growth trend, the land purchase area and land transaction price both dropped sharply, and the phenomenon of hot residential investment and cold commercial property investment continued. Although the housing sales in various places showed a "small spring" trend in March and April, and the market is expected to improve, the decline in market data in May indicates that the recovery of the property market is still unstable, and the momentum of the "small spring" in the property market is obviously insufficient. This "small spring" triggered by loose funds has cooled rapidly under the influence of policies, especially in some third-and fourth-tier cities, and then the real estate market may enter a new round of adjustment.

Outstanding characteristics of real estate market operation in the first half of the year

From 20 19 and 1 to May, the national real estate development and sales showed three obvious changes:

First, the sales area of various properties is negative, and the increase in sales prices has dropped. Residential, office and commercial sales areas all experienced negative growth. From June to May, the sales area of commercial housing was 560 million square meters, down 65,438 0.6% year-on-year, and the decline rate was 65,438 0.3 percentage points higher than that in April. Among them, residential sales area decreased by 0.7%, office sales area decreased by 12.2%, and commercial sales area decreased by 12.9%. At the same time, the sales of commercial housing was 565.438+0773 billion yuan, up 6.654.38+0% year-on-year, of which residential sales increased by 8.9%, office sales decreased by 654.38+02.3%, and commercial sales decreased by 9.7%. From this, it can be calculated that the average sales price of commercial housing from June 2065438 to May 2009 was 9325 yuan/square meter, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.8% and a year-on-year growth rate of 0.8 percentage points. Among them, the average residential transaction price was 9243 yuan/square meter, up 9.7% year-on-year; The average transaction price of commercial business buildings increased by 3.6% year-on-year; The average transaction price of office buildings decreased by 0. 1% year on year. Compared with the whole year of 20 18, the average price of commercial housing increased by 6.7%, and the increase rate dropped by 2.86 percentage points. Among them, residential buildings rose by 8.2%, office buildings by 2. 1%, and businesses by 1.7%.

Second, the land purchase area and land transaction price dropped significantly. From June to May of 20 19, the land acquisition area of real estate development enterprises decreased by 33.2% year-on-year, and the land transaction price decreased by 35.6% year-on-year. The land acquisition area and land transaction price dropped unprecedentedly, with the largest decline since 1998 and the largest decline since the data was first published in 2004. Moreover, the land transaction price decreased more than the land purchase area, and the average land transaction price decreased. From June to May, the average land transaction price was 4,389 yuan/square meter, with a year-on-year growth rate of -3.5%, which was the first year-on-year decrease since 20 12, and was 2 1% lower than the 5,525 yuan/square meter of 20 18 and 20 17. As land price is the basic factor to form the price of commercial housing, its rise and fall will be reflected in the commercial housing market after a lag of 1-2 years. So in the short term, the land market will lower the market price of new commercial housing.

Third, the phenomenon of hot residential investment and weak commercial real estate investment continues. From June to May of 20 19, the national real estate development investment increased by 1 1.2% year-on-year, which was higher than the growth rate of 9.5% in 20 18. If this investment momentum can be maintained throughout the year, it will be the first time to return to double-digit growth since 20 15. The growth of real estate development investment is driven by the growth of residential investment. From June to May, residential investment increased by 16.3% year-on-year, while investment in office buildings and commercial buildings showed negative growth, with investment growth rates of -3.6% and -9.7% respectively. The phenomenon of hot residential investment and weak commercial real estate investment continues. Among them, although the investment in office buildings is negative, the decline is narrower than that of 20 18, and the decline in investment in commercial buildings is further expanded than that of 20 18. From the perspective of regional differences, the growth rate of real estate development investment in the western region is about twice that in the eastern and central regions from June to May, and the investment growth rate in the northeast region is the lowest. The growth rates of investment in eastern, central, western and northeastern regions are 9.7%, 9.2%, 18.5% and 7. 1% respectively. At the same time, the housing construction area of real estate development enterprises increased by 8.8% year-on-year, and the newly started housing area increased by 10.5% year-on-year.

Generally speaking, the characteristics of the real estate market in the first half of the year are: weak market transactions, commercial housing sales will further decline; The sharp correction of the cumulative growth rate of land transaction area and amount will form a greater downward pressure on the future market; The overall development investment remains high, but the growth rate of real estate investment will be further adjusted back. It is estimated that there will be no substantial change in the stable adjustment of the real estate market in 20 19.

Several key factors affecting the future trend of real estate market

Based on the real estate market situation in the first half of 20 18 and 20 19, some potential problems in the future real estate market deserve attention.

First, housing prices in some cities have risen too fast due to urban polarization. The urbanization of China has entered a new stage, that is, some second-tier megacities have formed new growth poles. No matter the extent or duration of rising house prices, some second-tier and even some third-tier cities have completely surpassed the first-tier cities. If the rise in urban housing prices is supported by fundamentals, the risks are relatively controllable; On the contrary, if the rise in urban housing prices is not fundamentally supported, but purely supported by the expectation that housing prices will continue to rise, it is that the bubble needs to strengthen risk prevention. At present, some second-tier hotspot cities and some third-tier cities have promoted the prosperity of the real estate market due to the influx of young and middle-aged people and urban economic growth. At the same time, the shortage of safe and high-quality products in the capital market has not changed, which makes the demand for speculative investment brought about by rising housing prices in some second-tier cities still very strong. In addition, administrative measures taken in some places, such as new house lottery, have actually increased a lot of arbitrage demand.

Second, some small and medium-sized cities have market worries after the shed reform and exit. Due to the superposition of policy effects of destocking and shantytown renovation, the area of commercial housing for sale in China continues to decrease significantly. Compared with large and medium-sized cities, small and medium-sized cities have contributed more to the increase of sales in the real estate market, which is mainly affected by the shed reform policy. In the future, the financing of shed reform will shift from the government's purchase of shed reform service mode to the issuance of special bonds for shed reform, and CDB and Agricultural Development Bank will be encouraged to continue to provide loans with balanced income for shed reform projects. With the tightening of the policies of destocking and shantytown renovation, and the improvement of market saturation in small and medium-sized cities, the real estate market risks in small and medium-sized cities lacking population and industrial support will increase.

Third, shrinking cities are facing the possibility of falling real estate prices. After more than 30 years of rapid growth and expansion, the local contraction represented by some industrial and mining cities and resource-based cities has begun to take shape. Driven by globalization and informatization, various socio-economic factors will further gather in megacities and urban agglomerations. Coupled with the existence of potential risks and uncertainties such as the slowdown of global economic growth, it is inevitable that individual cities will shrink, which will inevitably have no impact on the shrinking of urban housing prices. Therefore, in the current deceleration stage of urbanization in China, some cities that show signs of contraction or have contracted should avoid unnecessary urban expansion and suburban real estate projects to the greatest extent, and reduce the difficulty of urban renewal and development planning in the later period. At the same time, for cities with signs of contraction, it is necessary to avoid incremental planning, gradually turn to stock planning, and even reduce planning. Turn the focus of urban development to the redevelopment of existing stock land, and adjust the nature and function of the city according to the urban development environment and its own advantages.

Fourth, the housing rental market may face the impact of collective land entering the market. Under the guidance of the policy of "adhering to the position that houses are used for living, not for speculation, and accelerating the establishment of a housing system with multi-subject supply, multi-channel guarantee and simultaneous rent and purchase", various localities have introduced policies and measures to vigorously develop the housing rental market. Among them, the impact of using collective land to build rental housing on the market should not be underestimated. Taking Beijing as an example, it is planned to supply 1000 hectares of collective land for the construction of collective rental housing in 20 17 to 202 15 years, with an average annual land supply task of about 200 hectares; 20 18 in Beijing's construction land supply plan, it is planned to supply 1000 hectares of state-owned residential land and 200 hectares of collective rental housing land, accounting for one-sixth of all residential land. By the end of 20 18, the supply of collective rental housing land had reached 209.2 hectares, with a completion rate of 105%. It can be predicted that in the next few years, with the supply of land for collective land rental housing and the construction of collective land rental housing, a considerable number of new rental housing will be concentrated in the market, which will bring no small impact to the local housing rental market.

Fifth, the decline in land market transactions may put pressure on local fiscal revenue. In 20 18, the land acquisition area continued to increase, but the increase of the average land transaction price was obviously narrowed, and the average land transaction price increased by 3.3% year-on-year, far lower than the increase of 20 10% to 30% since 20 13. In the first half of 2065438+2009, both the land purchase area and the land transaction price dropped sharply. The decline in land transactions, on the one hand, the overall tightening trend of real estate credit funds has not changed, and there are too many additional conditions for the transfer of some plots, which reduces the willingness of real estate development enterprises to take land; On the other hand, the financing cost of real estate enterprises is high, and the future situation is unknown. When the local price level is high, the attitude of real estate development enterprises tends to be cautious. The sharp decline in land market transactions will inevitably increase the pressure to reduce fiscal revenue. From June to May of 20 19, the revenue from the transfer of state-owned land use rights decreased by 6.0% year-on-year, and has been in a negative growth state since 20 19. In the future, if land market transactions continue to decline, the pressure to reduce fiscal revenue will further increase.

The policy of "housing and not speculating" has been continuously improved.

Since 20 16 central economic work conference put forward the orientation of "housing without speculation", the regulation policy that lasted for more than two years has achieved the expected effect, which has substantially changed the long-term expectation of housing price increase. Especially since the second half of 20 18, the increment of housing sales has slowed down, the land premium rate has continued to decline, the number of land auctions has surged, the growth rate of real estate development investment has slowed down, and the downward pressure on the market has increased. Various localities have introduced measures to relax restrictive control policies and ease market pressure. However, the central government's regulatory thinking of "housing is not speculation, because of the city's policy" has not fundamentally changed, and the future real estate regulatory policy will be further broadened and thickened from the following three dimensions.

First, stability-the healthy and stable development of the real estate market is the top priority. 20 18 12.24 Wang, Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, said that 20 19 will aim at stabilizing land prices, housing prices and expectations and promoting the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. It is necessary to solve the housing problem of new citizens as the main starting point and fill in the shortcomings of rental housing. Therefore, 20 19 "stable housing prices" is the keynote. In megacities and big cities with large population inflow and high housing prices, we will actively revitalize the existing land and speed up the construction of rental housing. Continue to promote the pilot work of building rental housing on collective land. Deepen the reform of housing provident fund system, study the establishment of residential policy financial institutions, increase support for urban low-income families and new citizens to rent houses, and comprehensively improve the service efficiency and management level of housing provident fund. Continue to maintain the continuity and stability of regulatory policies, strengthen the two-way regulation of supply and demand in the real estate market, improve the housing supply structure, support reasonable demand for self-occupation, resolutely curb speculative real estate speculation, and ensure market stability.

Second, differentiation-real estate regulation and control policy differentiation is the general trend. The tightness of real estate policy depends on the prosperity of real estate market development, which has the nature of countercyclical adjustment. At present, real estate in first-and second-tier hotspot cities is mainly driven by market and population growth, while third-and fourth-tier cities are mainly driven by shed reform policy. Therefore, the real estate regulation and control policies have also shown an obvious differentiation trend. Whether it is "one city, one policy" or "one city, one policy", it is necessary for every city to take control measures according to the actual situation of the local real estate market. This is the basic principle of real estate regulation in the future, that is, to maintain the healthy and stable development of the real estate market without systematic risks. In the first-and second-tier hotspot cities with greater market pressure, we will continue to maintain strict control policies. While preventing the real estate price bubble, we will focus on the supply-side structural reform and promote the housing system reform from the aspects of land, finance and taxation. In other third-and fourth-tier cities, maintaining the stability of the real estate market and preventing the real estate market price from falling too fast will be the primary task.

Third, decentralization-pay more attention to the main responsibility of local governments in real estate regulation and control. 20 18, 12, 19 to 2 1 the central economic work conference positioned the real estate market in 66 words: "build a long-term mechanism for the healthy development of the real estate market, adhere to the positioning that houses are used for living, not for speculation, strengthen the main responsibility of urban governments, and improve the housing market system and housing security system." In this year's government work report, the main responsibility of the city will be further clarified, which means that the independent power of local governments to regulate the real estate market will be further expanded. Emphasis on "one city, one policy" and "one city, one policy" pays more attention to expanding the main responsibility and autonomy of local governments in real estate regulation and control, which embodies the combination of the principle of central regulation and control policies and the flexibility of local regulation and control measures.

General understanding and suggestions on the current real estate market

First of all, the market heat of some second-tier cities rebounded significantly in the first half of the year, which triggered the regulation and upgrading. In order to curb the continuous rise of land prices, many cities have made relevant adjustments to the land auction rules. From this point of view, "housing is not speculation" is still the core of regulation, and the policy tone of "stability first, one city and one policy" has not changed. Combined with the land transaction in May, the enthusiasm for investment in the land market has eased, and the premium rate of land auction has dropped significantly. This shows that market regulation has achieved results, and housing enterprises have gradually lowered market expectations and gradually returned to rationality. Although the adjustment of the new rules of land auction has alleviated the high fever in some cities in the short term, it has not had a substantial effect on the long-term trend of the market. The key to keep the land price stable is to moderately increase the land supply in hot cities, promote the balance between supply and demand in the land market, and truly realize the goal of "stabilizing land prices, housing prices and expectations".

Secondly, because the market operation results of different urban energy levels show obvious differentiation trend, first-and second-tier cities focus on ensuring just-needed and improved demand, and appropriately relax over-tight administrative control measures. Under the marginal improvement of policy, the activity of market transactions will be improved, and the sales area may increase slightly year-on-year; Most areas that have completed destocking in third-and fourth-tier cities will gradually withdraw or reduce monetized resettlement. Without strong policy backing, the market demand is obviously overdrawn, and market sales may return to the downward channel. Although the housing sales in various places showed a "Koharu" trend in March and April, and the market was expected to improve, the market data in May showed that the recovery of the property market was still unstable, and the momentum of the property market in Koharu was obviously insufficient. Some third-and fourth-tier cities may gradually enter the cooling channel, and the real estate market may enter a new round of adjustment period. The real estate market should focus on preventing the risk of rapid price decline in some third-and fourth-tier cities.

Finally, regardless of short-term regulation or long-term mechanism, the overall goal of real estate policy is the same, that is, to keep the market basically stable and prevent ups and downs. It can be said that the basic stability of the real estate market itself is a significant contribution to the national economy. At present, the general direction of the central government's policies and classified regulation is correct, and it has also produced good results, and the market risks are generally controllable. Facing the pressure of market price fluctuation, we should further subdivide the control means. On the one hand, it is necessary to "block", on the other hand, it is also necessary to "sparse" and ease and resolve the pressure before reaching the dangerous border. At the same time, strengthen the real-time monitoring, forecasting and early warning of the national market pressure distribution, and conduct in-depth follow-up research and guidance and regulation of cities and regions that have risen and fallen too fast.