Dry goods: the development trend of the property market is like this, and buying a house must be seen.

In 20 14, "macro-control" was loosened, and house prices continued to fall. 20 15 bailout policy continued, and house prices stopped falling and rebounded. The property market has reached a crossroads again. The stock market is risky and funds will be transferred. Will the property market become the next battlefield? What is the development trend of the property market, and how to grasp the opportunity to buy a house in the trend? Today, Bian Xiao will discuss with you the future development trend of the property market in August 18. You must look at buying a house!

High inventory in the property market has always been a headache for local governments. On August 3 1 day, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and other three ministries jointly issued a document to lower the threshold for provident fund loans again. The document stipulates that if you pay off the first home provident fund loan and apply for the second home provident fund loan again, the down payment ratio will be reduced to 20%. This policy continued last year's "9? Since the "Article 30" New Deal, the policy theme of encouraging self-occupation and improving housing demand through "reducing costs and increasing leverage" has also continued the policy choice of provident fund as the "main force" to support the property market.

The major adjustment of the provident fund policy is mainly aimed at "destocking" in third-and fourth-tier cities by stimulating the demand for improved housing.

As the future change prospect of the property market is still unclear, many people are very entangled in buying a house now or later. Let's take you to know about the future trend of China property market 12, and see if it is appropriate to buy a house now.

1, the price gap between cities will be even greater.

The government has always wanted to realize the balanced development of large, medium and small cities in the process of urbanization. However, due to the unbalanced allocation of public resources, development opportunities are more concentrated in the capital, municipalities directly under the central government, provincial capital cities and special zones, so the "Matthew effect" in urban development will become increasingly obvious.

In the past five years, China has formed six population growth centers, namely, Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and its surrounding cities. The "three small schools" are Zhengzhou, Changsha, Xiamen and Quanzhou. In terms of capital increment, Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Chengdu, Hangzhou and Nanjing have become star cities. In these places, housing prices will be supported by both people and money.

2. Houses in big cities are becoming more and more capitalized.

First-tier cities, as well as strong second-tier cities around 10, the real estate in the central area will become more and more capitalized, and investors will become global and nationalized. In small and medium-sized cities, especially cities with population loss, houses will return to their original attributes such as residence, office and business. For most people in China, the worst of the house is over. After 1995 in most cities, their youth will no longer be squeezed by housing, which is the biggest benefit brought by the real estate bubble.

3. Small troops will be mechanized.

In the central area of big cities, mechanized small-sized houses will rise. A small apartment of 20 square meters will evolve into a sophisticated instrument, which will create rich life scenes by folding and opening. Developers are more and more like manufacturers of passenger planes and cruise ships.

4. Reverse urbanization is hard to appear.

After full-scale urbanization, many countries will have anti-urbanization. That is, city people go to the countryside to buy land and build villas. In the next 10 to 20 years, it is very difficult for China to see this situation. Because China has a large population and little arable land, the land belongs to the state. In addition, the uneven distribution of public and private resources also makes people living in rural areas inconvenient and unsafe.

5. It is difficult for big cities to "decentralize".

Most cities in Europe and America have the trend of decentralization. At present, domestic megacities are facing the pressure of traffic and environment, so it has become a dream for many people to have multiple centers in one city. China's national conditions are less arable land per capita and nationalized land. The state is delineating the boundaries of big cities to prevent unlimited occupation of land. Coupled with the fact that public resources cannot be evenly distributed, it is extremely difficult to go to the central area. On the contrary, the development of mobile internet technology is bringing a new change to traffic: if there are 6.5438+0.5 million taxis and cars in a city like Beijing, there is no need for private people to own cars. This opens the traffic deadlock in the city, and decentralization is of little significance.

6. The store is facing a revaluation.

The biggest problem faced by shops is "package consumption" (clothing, shoes, hats and household appliances, etc. ) is increasingly replaced by online shopping, leaving only "experiential consumption" (catering, movies, training, skating rink) to support the value of shops. Street shops in traditional business districts may be the most dangerous assets because the unit price is too high. In addition, it is a complex of urban suburbs and new districts with population loss. It is becoming more and more difficult to raise three generations in one shop, and the tragedy of "raising three generations in one shop" occurs at any time.

7. The prices of office buildings and houses will be upside down for a long time.

In first-tier cities, there has always been a phenomenon that houses and office buildings (including business apartments) in the same location and grade are more expensive. Why? There are three reasons: first, commercial properties basically have no degree and cannot be registered; Second, the land use life of commercial properties is short; Third, the management fee is high, and the water and electricity are generally suffocating.

In the network era, home-based, decentralized and suburban office is becoming a fashion, and the "just-needed color" of office buildings is insufficient. An office person may only need 3 square meters, but the demand for residential area is more, the better. This phenomenon will continue in the future, and investing in real estate in the central area of big cities is still the first choice. Of course, if you want to have sufficient cash flow, you must invest in good office buildings.

8. Property tax will be introduced, but it will have little impact on the market.

Due to the inflection point of real estate in most cities, in order to stabilize growth, the state is unlikely to introduce strict property tax. Property tax is the tax source of local governments, and it will definitely be adapted to local conditions in the future, with different tax rates and different reduction and exemption policies. The property tax rate in first-tier cities is definitely the highest. On the whole, property tax has little effect on housing prices.

9. The family planning policy will be gradually adjusted, but it will have little impact on the property market.

It is only a matter of time before the second child is fully released. There may be a looser population policy in the future. Otherwise, decades later, China will face a serious population crisis (excessive aging and insufficient labor force). This constitutes a long-term positive for the property market, but the effect may not be as great as expected, because the cost of childbirth is getting higher and higher, and the enthusiasm of young people for childbirth is declining, which is also a worldwide trend. Sooner or later, the local government will announce that one more child will reward half a house.

10, housing prices in big cities: rising and rising.

China's urban model is completely different from that of the United States. We are a stacked city with high density and high population concentration. Once this trend is formed, it is difficult to change. You can't let China people live a life of "driving for 10 minutes even if you buy a toothbrush". Therefore, in cities with an increasing population, it is difficult for house prices to fall back. Coupled with the long-term high RMB money supply, house prices can only keep rising.

In dollar terms, house prices in big cities in China may fluctuate, repeatedly or even fall in the next few years. However, the general trend of RMB house prices is rising. In other words, there is a big factor: currency depreciation.

1 1, a large number of housing enterprises will die out and transform.

Numerous experts have said that the China property market is experiencing a great escape, and the escape routes include: escaping from third-and fourth-tier cities, escaping from suburbs, escaping from high debts, fleeing to diversification and fleeing overseas. Now it seems that all this has come true. In the next 10 year, this trend will continue, and a large number of small and medium-sized housing enterprises will be acquired, transformed or extinct. In the end, there may be only 100 large housing enterprises left in China, and they are diversified. A large number of people will leave this industry to find another way out.

12, the "internet+real estate" bubble will burst.

The new wave of Internet craze brought by mobile Internet has reached its peak in China and the United States. With the approach of the US dollar interest rate hike, the major adjustment of the US stock market has begun. In China, the reform of IPO registration system was inevitably postponed because of the stock market crash, which made the crazy PE and VC investment in recent two years face the exit dilemma. 20 16 years is likely to be a full-scale low tide in internet plus. There will be a group of "Internet plus real estate" enterprises that have no profit model and will die of "running out of ammunition". However, the reshaping of real estate by the Internet will not stop.

Does the rescue policy continue to advance to the "harvest season"?

Data show that in the second quarter of 20 15, the average transaction price of commercial housing in 30 typical cities was 12 187 yuan/square meter, up by 16.2% year-on-year, and the average transaction price reached a record high.

What happened? Is the house price coming back to life again? What about the agreed rules?

In fact, in the first half of this year, China's commercial housing sales have bottomed out. An increase in sales will inevitably lead to an increase in prices. Coupled with the skyrocketing stock market in the early stage, many people took profits and moved to the property market. It seems natural for house prices to rise.

House prices are getting higher and higher.

The report released by the central bank shows that the volume of commercial housing in China has stabilized and rebounded, the number of cities with rising house prices has increased, the growth rate of real estate development investment has continued to decline, and real estate loans have grown steadily and rapidly.

Rising house prices can't restrain consumers' desire to buy. In the first half of the year, the sales area of commercial housing was 500 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%. The price increase in first-and second-tier cities is very obvious. In terms of price, the average transaction price in first-and second-tier cities reached a record high. Due to the heavy task of destocking in third-tier cities, the average transaction price increased slightly from the previous month. In terms of transaction volume, the transaction volume of first-tier cities in the second quarter increased the most year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, reaching a record high.

First-tier cities are the "leaders" of rising house prices in the second quarter of this year. On the one hand, the continuous narrowing of the destocking cycle has released the destocking pressure in the real estate market, and housing enterprises have taken the initiative to raise prices. For some luxury goods, better turnover will also prompt them to raise prices. On the other hand, with the constant changes in market expectations, the first-line real estate market is still generally optimistic, which will also bring about an increase in real estate market prices.

Judging from the recent situation, the stock market seems to have planted land for the property market. Experts say that "the property market is the harvester of the stock market". For investors who have made huge profits in the stock market, the skyrocketing market also means an increase in risk. In addition, China people have a long-standing cognitive tradition of real estate, so it is an inevitable choice to properly cash out profitable funds for high-quality real estate investment. Stimulated by various favorable policies, it is expected that the market turnover will remain considerable in the second half of the year.

What do you think of the future property market?

(The above answers were published on 20 15-09-08. Please refer to the current actual purchase policy. )

For more real estate information, policy interpretation and expert interpretation, click to view.