Beijing property market: smart people start bargain hunting.

With more than ten years' practical experience in the real estate market, Jingfanghui has provided investment and house purchase advice to more than 1 1000 families, and it is a practical expert who rarely cuts into every transaction link in the micro market from the macro market in Beijing. Accumulated more than 10000 communities and more than 1500 trading experiences; Help people who work hard in the imperial city to buy a set of high-quality and good houses, seize the dividend of urban economic growth, and get a certain return!

Q: Hello, Mr. Jing, I'm Chun Xiaobai. In September, 20021year, I bought a house of 100 m2 in Lize West Park, Wangjing. What I value is Li Ze's nine-year continuous study, with a total price of 800 yuan, of which 186 is a loan (because my wife had a loan record before marriage, so it is two sets). This is the only house in my name now. At present, I have about 400 yuan's cash in my hand, and I want to buy an old and shabby set in Dongcheng. The reason is that it is said that the high school in Chaoyang is not ideal. I want to immigrate to Dongcheng before the mid-term exam. Please give me an idea. How about Chongwenmen Xinjing Home? Now the price of one-bedroom online search in the south is close to 700. How to implement asset allocation, or there is another good way. Thank you.

Answer: Hello, thank you for your trust! 1, Lize West Garden belongs to the boarding plate of Wangjing. Although the house is a little old, it is still very warm because of the blessing of the school district. The total price is 800 yuan, and the loan is 186, that is to say, there is 500-600 yuan available for the house, and with your existing 400 yuan, the total price can reach about 1000. There are two options.

(1), pay off the existing loan, re-mortgage the funds, and add the cash you hold to buy a set of products with good quality. First, you can live by yourself, and second, you should pay attention to investment.

(2), or you can consider selling it and replacing it with high-quality real estate. Although the old house is also in the core area, the probability of becoming the dominant market is very small. Now the law of rising house prices is in the upward period of house prices; First of all, the quality of the first round of school districts and popular areas (core) has increased, and the second round of school districts+popular areas+first-class mature spillover areas just needs quality improvement. With a principal of 6,543,800 yuan, you can get a second-class three-bedroom or two-bedroom with quality in the core area. Beijing's long-term regulation will focus on improving groups, and the core area with relatively concentrated purchasing power will be second-class three-bedroom or two-bedroom with quality, which is in line with the mainstream of the future market.

2. Chongwenmen Xinjingjiayuan, Guorui City and Xinglong City Xinyuan are all good quality plates. You can look at 2 or 3 according to your own situation; It is recommended to read carefully the article "The Core Logic and Principles of Beijing Real Estate Investment" by Planet Top, "Put all your eggs in one basket in the next five years, short miscellaneous vegetables and only stay dominant". I wish all the best and ask me again if you have any questions.

Question: Hello, Teacher Jing! After the epidemic, what will happen to the housing prices in Dongba area of Chaoyang, whether it will rise or fall, whether to sell the house quickly or wait for the second half of the year?

A: Answer; Hello, Dongba market is overdrawn in the early stage, and the ceiling of house price is difficult to break. Beijing property market is a policy city, with small water rising slightly, big water rising sharply, and big water plus policy stimulating skyrocketing. There are favorable policies in these two days. We can wait for the epidemic to come and see what the market is like. If the turnover comes up, it can catch up with the mid-term shipment of the regional market warming up. It is recommended that you carefully read the article in column 3 1# on how to judge the best purchase cycle through the cold and warm law of the second-hand housing market. There is a specific delivery time in it, and I wish everything well!

Q: Hello, President, can you consider investing in national fashion companies?

A: Hello, this community used to be very popular. The disadvantage is that the community is too small. There are only three buildings, and the plot ratio is above 3. The distance between the buildings of each building is very close, and you can almost face each other through the window. If Wei Ming takes a bath without drawing the curtains, he will be seen by the next building! The last change, we don't like this community with only a few buildings, and there is no guarantee for future property services. It is recommended to read carefully the article "15# Wangjing 139 disk, only 39 disks are growing steadily". I wish all the best and ask me if you have any questions.

Q: It's always good to be in Beijing. I admire your profound understanding of the Beijing property market. Ask a question about the election of housing in Xicheng school district: the annual income of two families is 100w, and they have 850w free deposit, which can be used to buy a house in full. At present, I live in Aizhe City, Chaoyang (2 suites), one of which is loaned in my own name (3 apartments). The other set is in the name of parents (2 houses)

Because the child goes to school in 2023 and is going to buy a school district house in Xicheng (the child's household registration has always been in the financial street with his father, and the unit has a certain probability to help him go to school, but there is no guarantee), so I want to buy a house in Xicheng as a guarantee (don't live in my own house, consider taking the elderly and renting a house when I come). At present, it is considered to be near Xidan Primary School or Struggle Primary School. Of course, if you can buy a house to go to school, a good primary school such as Xicheng Yumin can also do it. Please ask Mr. Jing for advice on how to choose a fund. Need to sell the house in Chaoyang and buy a more suitable house in Xicheng? Thank you.

A: A: Hello; Thank you for your trust! 1. Love The city has been in a gloomy state from 20 17 to February this year. After the Spring Festival this year, it probably rose by more than 10%. This market belongs to the mid-end market and the third echelon in Sihui: Sihui is just in need of lots, and the popular boarding markets are Yixian International and Tonghui Home. The main value of these two markets is relatively low prices.

The high-quality plate is the second phase of Dongheng era, and the golden place name is Beijing; These two disks are mainly groups that undertake replacement in the area; The price of loving this city is around 80 thousand, and the plate advantage in 2008 is not particularly obvious in this area; Therefore, the increase has always been backward; From the interest point of view, these two three-bedroom apartments should be replaced by high-quality business districts, because your bottom warehouse is sufficient; +existing funds can choose a good disk; In the past, Beijing just needed to promote housing prices, and the future is driven by improvement; High-quality hot business district, two-class three-bedroom apartment is the mainstream apartment in the future market;

2, the unit has a certain probability to solve the enrollment quota, coupled with the factor of renting a house, to be on the safe side, or buy the school district with the lowest total price; Small huxing has an advantage in liquidity;

3. The high-quality buildings in the whole West City have investment value; Xicheng is one of the best administrative districts in Beijing at present, and most of the residents are retirees from state-owned enterprises and central enterprises. Medical resources and educational resources are also top-notch, because I don't know your specific financial situation, so I can't recommend real estate to you; I suggest that you carefully read the articles "The Core Logic and Principles of Beijing Real Estate Investment" and "In the next five years, change positions, sell short and miscellaneous vegetables, and leave only monopoly". I wish all the best!

Question: Hello, Teacher Jing! We only have one elevator slab building in 2004 in Tonghui Jiayuan, with a loan record of 65,438+000 square meters. My baby will go to primary school in 2027. I feel that the school district here in Tonghui Jiayuan is too poor compared with the branch schools of Ritan Primary School and Middle School, and I want to change the school district. After the sale of Tonghui Home, the down payment can be raised to 4.5 million, but the housing in the school district in the west of Yizhuang River has risen rapidly, and now the policy of recognizing housing and lending can only lead to a loan of 20%. We are currently struggling:

First, according to the census results released by Beijing, the number of school-age children will decrease after 2026, and the school district may have an inflection point. Bet that in 2023-24, the house in Tonghui Jiayuan can keep up with or slightly outperform the broader market, or that the adjustment of mortgage policy will lead to an increase in the loan ratio (our income is ok, but we feel that there is little hope), and then re-plan. But I'm worried that the secondary school district attached to Hexi People's Congress can still get more than 70 square meters of two-bedroom rooms, and the difference between school districts will be even greater.

Option 2, change to a small two-bedroom apartment in Hexi core school district, instead of pursuing two new ones; It is still a small house of about 90 square meters around 2000. However, there are few rooms in Hexi School District that can be bought at present, so it is difficult to choose valuable sub-new ones, and the area inside the suite is much smaller than at present. The main concern is the policy adjustment of the school district, and then if we can't choose the second new school district of Yizhuang Hexi core school district, at the expense of living and commuting experience, can the value-preserving property of the house we can buy be comparable to our Tonghui home (there is a rare apartment with elevator board in the south of the community, and the transaction in this community is also active).

Option 3, consider other sub-new second-hand houses in Yizhuang non-Hexi area, and choose more in this part. However, the bet is on Yizhuang's policy of dividing up school districts as a whole, and the entanglement is the greater uncertainty of the school district housing policy; I hope I can get your advice. Thank you very much.

Answer: Hello, thank you for your trust! 1. Recognizing housing and loans is a phased policy. This is not static. Now affected by the policy, only 20% of the loans cannot be leveraged. Please write to me privately and I will tell you the specific operation method.

Your child will go to primary school in 2027, five years from now. There is no need to buy a school district house too early. If you buy now, there will be too many changes in these five years. Once the policy reform is carried out, the losses may be relatively large. School district housing has a considerable increase, but the decline is also very serious. At present, the premium is serious, and the most stable investment method is to avoid the school district. There are not many school districts I am optimistic about.

The high-quality plates in some high-quality areas are ok, but their own value is scarce. If the school district changes, the safety factor is relatively high; As you said, the quality housing in Yizhuang Hexi belongs to high-risk investment products, so don't invest deliberately. With the constant change of policies, the concept of school district housing may be cancelled at any time, which is risky. Members of the planet generally recommend buying small ones because their children go to school, because higher real estate prices are the price of degrees;

The degree is calculated according to the suite, regardless of the size of the apartment. The house price is calculated in square meters. The value of large and small real estate schools is the same. Big property is equivalent to paying a lot of premium. Once the school district is changed, it may face huge losses. If you are willing to gamble, in the short and medium term, the profit of the school district may be crucial, but risks and opportunities coexist. A more stable way is to invest in pure houses. Although the increase is not exaggerated by the school district, there will be no fluctuation, but it will rise steadily with the value of the region; The prudent way is to invest in pure houses. Although the increase is not exaggerated by the school district, there will be no fluctuation, but it will rise steadily with the value of the region. More stable!

Although the transaction volume of Tonghui Jiayuan is very active, the growth rate is very poor. There has been almost no growth in recent years, and there has been a slight decline in the middle. Shuangqiao belongs to Chaoyang cold area, including Guanzhuang area, bordering the Fifth Ring Road in the west, Tongchao intersection in the east, Jingtong Expressway in the north and the Third Ring Road in the north. In addition, there are a large number of public houses and relocations in this area, as well as Tonghui River and villages in the city in the south. Four don't occupy+narrow interface+poor internal life contact, no business circle, lack of quality supporting. Therefore, the price has not been able to rise, and the performance of recent rounds of increase is relatively weak; If we consider the principle of giving priority to efficiency, we should sell the house of Tonghui Jiayuan and replace it with a pure investment sector, and enjoy a five-year sector dividend. Before the children go to school, we can cash out the rising part of the house and buy the school district house at the lowest total price.

It is suggested to read the article "The Core Logic and Principles of Beijing Real Estate Investment" carefully. Good luck with everything. Please ask me more questions if you have any questions!

Good evening, Mr. Kim. I just joined the planet today and read your article on the top of the planet. I have been completely awakened. At present, the room tickets in Beijing have been used up. At present, Kyoto households and parents still have room tickets. At present, there is not much money, about 200 in cash, and you can find some money to raise about 300. Beijing's non-core plates, such as Fangshan, Shunyi and Daxing, have also appeared in BZ before. Can you buy it before it goes up? Thank you, manager Jing.

Answer: Hello, thank you for your trust! These outer suburbs are unsustainable. If you look carefully, the increase in these places may rise within half a year, but there will be a cooling-off period of three to five years after the increase, and it may continue to fall, that is, the market of these sectors is not so strong, and they are all flourishing.

Weak value leads to no continuous follow-up purchasing power, so this wave may be cold for a long time, and it may fall back, with poor continuity and instability! I generally recommend shipping companies in these locations, rather than buying during peak hours. Can amoy the second-hand in the main city; It is suggested to read carefully the columns of Planet Essence, Core Logic and Principle of Beijing Real Estate Investment and Early Warning and Judgment of Marginal House Prices in Seven Administrative Regions of Beijing. I wish all the best!

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Update an article every week.

Macro category (some articles)

0 1# Ten-year mainstream forecast of Beijing property market (2022-2032)

08# epic inflation is on the way, the rights and strategies of ordinary people.

The value of 03# Beijing property market is becoming desertification.

04# In the next five years, put all your eggs in one basket to change positions, sell short miscellaneous vegetables, and only stay dominant.

05# commercial housing B rose because there were enough affordable housing.

07# can't move forward without understanding the lever.

4 1# on the real estate bubble

Micro-course (some articles)

1 1#

12# pit avoidance highlights: map of Beijing's great depreciation zone 17

13# School District Collection: Guidance Map for Housing Selection Planning of Dongxihai School District

14# replacement set: 10 once a year, refusing ADHD.

15# wangjing 139, only 39 of them grew steadily.

Practical classes (some articles)

8 1# Core Logic and Principles of Beijing Real Estate Investment

Analysis of 82# Beijing down payment of 300-400, stable 78 just needed.

83# Tongzhou outperformed the market.

84# Daxing outperformed the market, and the guide map was selected.

Investment skills of 84# Beijing holding currency below 200W

86# Fengtai outperformed the market.

continuous renewal ...