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First, the prospects of e-commerce

E-commerce is a new thing in China. The emergence of e-commerce will challenge the knowledge system, legal system, value system and social organization system formed by human beings so far. With the development of e-commerce technology, there will be many new knowledge systems, legal systems, value systems and social organization system theories based on e-commerce system. For example, under the traditional economic conditions, economics has a set of mature theories and calculation methods to guide the laws of economic activities, such as resources, commodities, values, socially necessary labor hours, and commodity exchange laws. These theories will no longer be applicable to the network economy environment. We will not be able to reveal the economic laws under the conditions of e-commerce with traditional economic theories, but will be replaced by new economics under the conditions of e-commerce. The development of e-commerce should be guided by the new economic theory, which promotes the emergence of the new economic theory. It can be predicted that in the near future, a brand-new theoretical system of e-commerce will be established.

The laws that have been formed for a long time are all based on paper media and tangible goods, and the application of these laws under the conditions of e-commerce has encountered insurmountable difficulties. Most of the existing laws stipulate that documents using "written", "signed" or "original" have legal effect, which imposes some restrictions or contains restrictive meanings on the use of modern communication means. International and domestic laws and regulations on electronic information (for example, China's new economic contract law, although it is mentioned that electronic data interchange documents have legal effect) do not cover all of e-commerce, making it impossible for people to accurately grasp the legal nature and effectiveness of providing information in non-traditional written forms, and to fully believe in the security of electronic payment.

The unique operation mode of e-commerce poses a great challenge to the existing commercial standard mode in terms of technology, finance and transaction security. Without legal norms, e-commerce will be difficult to develop normally. It is an important task of China's current legislative work to formulate and promulgate corresponding laws in time to encourage, guide and maintain the healthy development of e-commerce. The development of e-commerce challenges the traditional legal system, which will promote the establishment of a new legal system. The development of e-commerce depends on the new legal system to regulate it.

It is predicted that the new industrial revolution caused by e-commerce will be completed in the next 20-30 years. In this way, the e-commerce revolution takes 30-40 years from birth to completion, which is much faster than the previous industrial revolution. When this industrial revolution is completed, the revolution of economic theory and legal theory will also be completed at the same time, and a brand-new theoretical system will be formed under the conditions of e-commerce, such as e-commerce economics, e-commerce law, e-commerce organization and so on.

1, technical development of e-commerce

From the technical development trend of e-commerce, there will be the following aspects:

(1) An object-oriented overall solution will appear. This includes the extensive application of computer cooperative work technology and relying on cooperative work system (computer cooperative work closely combines computer technology, network communication technology, multimedia technology and various social sciences, providing people with a brand-new communication mode, including industry and commerce, taxation, banking, transportation, commodity inspection, customs, foreign exchange, insurance, telecommunications, certification and other departments, as well as shopping malls, businesses, corporate customers and other units to cooperate and contact each other according to certain norms and procedures.

(2) Solutions for small and medium-sized users will be developed (most of the current e-commerce platforms are B2B e-commerce solutions, and there is no good e-commerce platform for small users);

(3) There will be mobile embedded e-commerce technology that can be generated automatically. Using this technology, small embedded e-commerce systems can be automatically generated in the computer systems of enterprises, departments and individuals.

(4) There will be a customizable and flexible e-commerce system. Using this technology, users can meet the requirements of e-commerce applications, and use this system to generate an extensible and flexible e-commerce system that meets the requirements of users.

At the same time, with the expansion of application scope, new technical requirements will be put forward for e-commerce, and e-commerce technology may also have new developments that cannot be foreseen now. For example, the combination of e-commerce and new materials, e-commerce and bioengineering technology will form new disciplines and new applications.

2. Application and development of e-commerce.

The application of e-commerce at home and abroad has just started, even in the earliest United States, it has only a history of nearly ten years. Such a short time, even if it is estimated that the shortest time to complete the industrial revolution is 30-40 years, is relatively short, and the application of e-commerce is far from being discovered. E-commerce is bound to have broad prospects because of its remarkable economic benefits. It can make enterprises increase economic benefits; Can make small companies that are not well-known famous all over the world; Can make big companies more competitive. In short, it can greatly reduce the TOC (total cost of owned ships) of enterprises. Therefore, the development of e-commerce is amazing and rapid (the development of e-commerce is basically synchronized with the development of Internet users, and the development speed of the Internet is 250% in China and more than 50% in the world). )

Specifically, the application and development of e-commerce has the following characteristics.

(1) The depth of e-commerce will be further expanded.

At present, limited by technological innovation and application level, enterprises are still in the initial stage of developing e-commerce. With the improvement of these two aspects and the development of other related technologies, e-commerce will advance in depth, and a new generation of e-commerce will appear, replacing the current simple trust mode of "website+email". E-commerce enterprises will transition from the primary form of online stores and portals to extend their core business processes and customer relationship management to the Internet, so that products and services are closer to the needs of users. Interaction and real-time have become the common characteristics of enterprise information exchange, and the network has become the central nerve of enterprise resource planning, customer relationship management and supply chain management. Enterprises will create and form a new value chain, unite new, old and upstream and downstream interests, form a more efficient strategic alliance and jointly seek greater interests.

(2) E-commerce will rapidly penetrate into all walks of life.

The advocates of e-commerce are the giants of IT industry in the world, such as IBM, HR and Microsoft. The implementation of e-commerce is first in the financial services industry (including banking system, stock trading system, insurance system, Amazon and other service companies that sell books), followed by large multinational companies (such as Dell and General Motors). While there are not many large multinational companies in China, China home appliance giants such as Chunlan, Haier and TCL actively promote e-commerce plans, followed by traditional processing and manufacturing industries, retail enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises to realize the grafting and transformation of e-commerce to traditional industries, retail industries and small and medium-sized enterprises. Finally, it is extended to government departments, military departments, medical and health departments, education departments and other public utilities. At present, the situation of e-commerce in China is that the financial industry has been fully developed and deepened; Other service industries have not yet entered this field; Large enterprises have just entered and need further development; Other applications are not yet available. The future development will be the continuous demand of these industries. With China's entry into WTO, e-commerce will penetrate into all walks of life in China, which is the inevitable and only choice for all walks of life in our country and China, and it is also a severe challenge to China's traditional economy.

(3) The geographical scope of e-commerce will expand rapidly.

E-commerce technology originated in the United States and has unique advantages in electronic information technology. The reason why the United States advocates duty-free e-commerce activities is because American electronic information technology is the pillar of the American economy, which almost monopolizes the global market, and all transactions of electronic information technology are very suitable for online transactions. If the global e-commerce activities are tariff-free, it means that American electronic information technology can gain a global market without national borders and tariffs. From this point of view, the United States spares no effort to promote e-commerce, which has the purpose of economic colonization and technological hegemony, and countries have to guard against it. But whether you like it or not, just like Britain in those days, whether you like English and steam engines or not, English and steam engines are still not controlled by our will. Steam engines are very popular all over the world, and English has become the universal language. This is the international competition of survival of the fittest and law of the jungle. Because of this, no country, whether developed or developing, has a passive attitude towards e-commerce. But to gain certain advantages in e-commerce technology (the Cyberport project in Hong Kong, the super multimedia corridor in Malaysia and the electronic information port project in Singapore are all products of various countries and regions vying for the commanding heights of e-commerce), which will not be eliminated by the international community. It is precisely because of this scrambling competition and the strong support of governments that e-commerce will rapidly expand from developed countries to developing countries, including the least developed countries.

(4) E-commerce websites will have a merger boom.

The first is a similar merger. At present, there are tens of millions of websites on the Internet, many of which have the same or similar positioning and the same business content (especially in China). Due to limited resources, only the top websites won in the end. Those leading e-commerce companies have great advantages in resources, brands, customer scale and so on. If these websites with good foundation and good development prospects want to develop, they must adopt complementary acquisition strategies and form strategic alliances. Individualization and specialization are two major trends in the development of e-commerce, and the resources of each website are always limited, and the needs of customers are all-round, so it will be an inevitable trend for different types of websites to cooperate with each other in the form of strategic alliances.

(5) Industry e-commerce will become the mainstream of the next generation of e-commerce.

The typical feature of e-commerce entering a period of rapid development is that venture capital and website positioning will change from the previous "big and comprehensive" model to a professional business portal. E-commerce companies must also conduct serious market segmentation research to meet the different needs of consumers for e-commerce. The first generation of e-commerce is content-oriented, and the second generation is comprehensive e-commerce. The next generation of industry e-commerce will closely combine value-added content with business platforms, give full play to the advantages of the Internet in information services, and make e-commerce truly enter the practical stage.

(6) E-commerce will give birth to EASP (Electronic Commerce Application Service Provider).

E-commerce is the main business transaction mode in the future, but for a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises in China, it will face a series of problems such as large construction investment, high operating cost, long validity period, unsatisfactory effect, lack of standardized application system, and continuous upgrading of software and hardware. With e-ASP e-commerce application service providers, small and medium-sized enterprises can transfer the above problems to them and only focus on their own products and services.

Second, the development of e-commerce resistance

People are very optimistic about the development prospect of e-commerce, but some situations in reality are not so optimistic, which makes us have to reflect and analyze deeply, face up to various obstacles in the development of e-commerce and avoid failures and losses caused by blind obedience. The resistance of enterprises to develop e-commerce can be summarized as the following aspects:

1, information infrastructure scale

The development of e-commerce can be said to depend on the scale of information infrastructure to some extent. Because e-commerce is a business activity based on information network communication, it is necessary to build necessary information infrastructure, including the construction of various information transmission networks, the development of information transmission equipment and information technology, and the construction of a series of information infrastructure such as multimedia teaching, distance teaching and telemedicine. However, at present, the development of information infrastructure in the world is extremely uneven, and the information infrastructure in developed countries has reached a relatively perfect level; However, the information infrastructure construction in developing countries is in its infancy, and they need a lot of investment in infrastructure construction such as education, energy and transportation, so the funding gap for information infrastructure construction is also very large.

2. Popularization of information terminal equipment.

The development of e-commerce depends on the popularization of information terminal equipment. After the information infrastructure is completed, it must be connected with information terminal equipment to realize e-commerce activities. Therefore, the popularity of information terminal equipment such as telephones, personal computers and mobile phones will become a restrictive factor for the development of e-commerce. For the above terminal equipment, although the total ownership and growth rate of China are among the highest in the world, the per capita ownership is far behind. The development of China's eastern, western and central regions is still extremely unbalanced, and the relative lack of information terminal equipment in the central and western regions will become a huge obstacle to the development of e-commerce in this region.

3. The integrity of the architecture

The operation of e-commerce needs a complete e-commerce application architecture to support it. The establishment of e-commerce application architecture is very important for the development of e-commerce applications. A complete e-commerce system includes at least two important functional sub-modules, namely, security sub-system and payment sub-system, to complete the security issues and electronic payment issues in the process of e-commerce interaction. This is also the key factor for the smooth development of e-commerce.

4. Development technology is changing with each passing day

In the final analysis, the establishment of e-commerce system should be realized by using various technologies in computer science and related fields, that is, on the basis of e-commerce system architecture, combined with the latest technical means and development tools, to generate a realistic and feasible e-commerce application system. China is still very short of talents in this field.

5, the standardization of the market.

The development of e-commerce needs a standardized market environment, but in China, the market and its system are still not perfect and standardized, fake and shoddy goods are repeatedly banned, fraud occurs from time to time, market behavior lacks necessary self-discipline and strict social supervision, and the moral system of personal integrity has not been fully established. In this case, we must speed up the cultivation of the market to make it mature and standardized as soon as possible, so as to facilitate the smooth transformation from traditional commerce to e-commerce.

6. Quality of financial services

E-commerce needs payment and settlement, which should be accompanied by high-quality and efficient financial services and their computerization. Therefore, due to the low level of financial services and electronicization in China, China's financial industry should accelerate the pace of reform to adapt to the process of global integration.

7. Availability of network resources

The availability of network resources is mainly measured by three indicators: the number of network resources, the cost of internet access and the cost of internet access services. The less the number of network resources, the higher the cost of internet access or the higher the cost of internet service, the lower the availability of network resources. In China, due to the lack of online resources, high internet access fees and high rental fees for dedicated data lines, the data transmission speed of online services is difficult to satisfy customers. At the same time, high equipment investment is also an obstacle for enterprises to try e-commerce.

8, personnel quality and skills

E-commerce is a new thing, and its knowledge needs popularization. Worldwide, the number of business users and home users on the Internet has increased dramatically, but Internet users are still concentrated among young people between the ages of 15 and 50, with upper-middle income and secondary education, most of whom are men. For China, it is particularly necessary to improve the professional quality and network skills of business people. In addition, enterprises must rely on the specific operations of staff in various operating departments to carry out e-commerce, which requires these staff to have the basic quality of computer application. Therefore, improving the quality of the whole society is an important step to develop e-commerce.

9. Inter-departmental and inter-regional coordination

E-commerce involves not only the two parties to the transaction, but also the industrial and commercial administration, customs, insurance, finance and taxation, banking and other departments, as well as different regions and countries, which need a unified legal and administrative framework and a strong comprehensive coordination agency.

10, corresponding legal framework

The development of e-commerce needs to establish the necessary legal framework. This refers to the legal obligations and responsibilities that must be clearly defined and observed when conducting e-commerce between enterprises, governments and enterprises, enterprises and consumers, and governments and governments. Because e-commerce is a kind of world economic activity, its legal framework should not be limited to one country, but should be used in international economic exchanges, which is recognized and observed by international voices.

1 1, network access standard

Because the development level of information technology and the network access standards adopted by different countries are different, it is necessary to formulate the necessary network access standards for the development of electronic equipment in various countries. It is required that countries should allow users with different information technologies to conduct e-commerce activities under different solutions, and the key is to establish network access standards between different technologies.

12, safety and reliability

E-commerce transmits business information and conducts transactions through information networks. Compared with the traditional paper trade, it reduces the direct commercial transaction activities of bill delivery and confirmation, so e-commerce is required to be safer and more reliable than paper trade. On the one hand, it needs technical support, such as using electronic signature, electronic identification and other technical means; On the other hand, these technical means need to be determined by law.

These aspects are huge obstacles and obstacles for enterprises to carry out e-commerce, and they are also problems that enterprises must pay attention to when participating in e-commerce.

Third, countermeasures to solve the problem

To sum up, we can easily find that the main factors affecting the development of e-commerce in China are payment, logistics, laws and regulations, credit, taxes and prices. Online payment, credit system and logistics network are still three bottlenecks restricting the development of e-commerce in China. In order to change the status quo, the following measures can be considered:

1, strengthen the construction of credit system. At present, the credit evaluation of Chinese enterprises is seriously lacking, counterfeit and shoddy goods are repeatedly banned, and the market behavior lacks social supervision, which leads to a mixed e-commerce market and seriously restricts the development of e-commerce. A good social credit system is the foundation for the existence and development of e-commerce. Only in a standardized, legally guaranteed market economy and a good social credit system can e-commerce play a better role. In the face of the imperfect credit system, we can't copy the western countries', so we need to take effective measures from the perspective of innovative ideas in combination with the current reality. First of all, as a network economy, e-commerce has temporal and spatial differences. In view of the credit problems faced by e-commerce and its uniqueness, e-commerce enterprises should set up special supervision institutions to make e-commerce more institutionalized and standardized, and minimize the risks caused by lack of credit. Secondly, all parties involved in e-commerce transactions should weigh their own interests independently and carefully analyze the risks, information credibility and opportunity costs brought by online transactions. Third, when the conditions for the full implementation of e-commerce are not mature enough, we should pay attention to the combination of e-commerce and traditional commerce.

2. Realize knowledge management. When implementing e-commerce, enterprises should establish advanced market awareness and grasp their position in the network economy. First of all, the network economy is a direct economy, which needs to break the traditional economic concept and management mode. In the e-commerce environment, enterprises are faced with a complex and changeable network business environment. The economic basis of survival and dependence has changed from industrial economy to knowledge economy. Accordingly, the business philosophy and management methods of enterprises must break through the shackles of the traditional market environment. Second, the main driving force for the economic development of e-commerce enterprises is their own innovation, not capital and labor. Innovation is the life of e-commerce enterprises. An e-commerce enterprise with a sense of continuous innovation can keep ahead of its competitors and form a first-Mover advantage.

3. Improve e-commerce payment methods. Because the electronic level of banks is not high, and the banks are closed, it is impossible to bear the online transaction costs. Quite a few enterprises are skeptical about the security of online payment. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a safe, rigorous and reliable personal credit card and electronic money payment system in the society, and establish an e-commerce certification body; Encourage qualified banks to open online banking and provide various forms of online services; Establish a unified online settlement center to provide online settlement services for domestic and foreign customers.

4. Accelerate the construction of logistics distribution system. Logistics is one of the bottlenecks in the development of e-commerce in China. To solve the logistics problem, we need to take the government as the leading factor, strengthen the construction of modern logistics information platform, build a government information network covering all levels of party and government organs, information security and advanced technology as soon as possible, meet the management needs of the government under the modern logistics situation, and build a four-level agricultural information network at the provincial, city, county and township levels. At the same time, encourage postal organs to give full play to their own advantages and sign agreements with e-commerce manufacturers; Gradually open the market to attract domestic and foreign express delivery companies to participate in the competition; Accelerate the construction of the third-party logistics system, make the third-party logistics industry scale and specialization, thus saving costs and improving services.

5. Strengthen the research and formulation of laws and regulations to provide legal protection for e-commerce. The healthy and stable development of e-commerce depends largely on the legal construction of e-commerce. Although our government attaches great importance to the legislation of e-commerce, there is no legal document on the special legislation of e-commerce at present, which can not meet the requirements of the rapid development of e-commerce. Compared with foreign countries, China's information industry policies, laws and regulations are not perfect enough, and there are many blind spots. Accelerate the improvement of e-commerce laws and regulations, open the e-commerce market, and adjust the laws and regulations of departments, regions and departments, which provides a foundation for e-commerce enterprises to compete on an equal footing, operate in an orderly manner and standardize management under the legal environment.

6. Strengthen online tax collection and management. Internet trade is global and paperless, breaking the traditional trading mode. Sales vouchers of buyers and sellers exist in the form of electronic data. It is difficult for tax authorities to determine taxpayers, control the transaction process between buyers and sellers, identify the nature of transactions and determine taxes and tax rates, and find tax basis. It is urgent to standardize online tax collection and management. At the beginning of 2005, the General Office of the State Council issued the first policy document on e-commerce in China-"Several Opinions on Accelerating the Development of E-commerce in China", asking relevant departments to speed up the research and formulation of preferential policies on e-commerce, strengthen the management of e-commerce taxes and fees, and take the first step of online tax collection and management.

7. Promote the development of e-commerce software and hardware. Most enterprises in China have a weak computer and network foundation, especially small and medium-sized enterprises. When introducing e-commerce system, the price of the introduced system is too high, and the enterprise itself is unable to develop the business system, which leads to the slow progress of e-commerce. In order to speed up the process of e-commerce in China, we need to make full use of market mechanism, attract more funds and talents with the support of national industrial policies, create subjective and objective conditions for the rapid development of e-commerce and establish an e-commerce environment suitable for Chinese enterprises.

8. Vigorously cultivate e-commerce professionals. Talent is the key to the development of e-commerce. Cultivating e-commerce talents can be achieved through the joint efforts of the government, universities and enterprises. The government formulates relevant policies to encourage and support universities and scientific research institutions to train teachers for the whole country, hire domestic and foreign experts to teach and study abroad; Colleges and universities can offer professional courses such as e-commerce and logistics according to their own conditions, and train junior college, undergraduate and even graduate students to meet the long-term demand of society for e-commerce talents; Enterprises can provide short-term training for employees to meet their recent demand for e-commerce talents.