In the first half of the year, domestic real estate transactions totaled 88.4 billion, which city was hot?

In the first half of 2020, the transaction volume of China mainland real estate block trading market was about 88.4 billion yuan. Beijing and Shanghai performed well, accounting for 80% of the transactions. Four first-tier cities account for 9 1%. On July 30th, dtz released the above data at the online sharing meeting of the first-tier cities' block trading market in the first half of the year.

Judging from the contents of the above meeting, the four first-tier cities have their own advantages. Shanghai's real estate transactions accounted for more than 50%, and Beijing surpassed Shanghai for the first time to become the "new darling" of foreign investment. Guangzhou's vacancy rate is at a low level of 6.7%, which is conducive to stability. Shenzhen's explosive power and net absorption are far ahead.

In the second half of the year, Shenzhen Industrial Real Estate, Beijing Tongzhou and Shanghai Industrial Park will become the investment hotspots of real estate block transactions. In addition, under the influence of the epidemic, in order to speed up the removal of commercial inventory, developers will successively launch large-scale asset packages.

Beijing surpassed Shanghai and became the "new darling" of foreign investment.

According to the statistics of dtz, in the first half of this year, the scale of China real estate block trading market was about 88.4 billion yuan. Beijing and Shanghai are still eye-catching, with a turnover of about 70 billion yuan, accounting for 80% of the turnover.

Shanghai, which holds up half the sky in mainland real estate transactions, has a turnover of 45.5 billion yuan, accounting for 52%. The buyer's demand for personal use is still strong, and the secrets of Haitong Securities, Shanghai Bank and TST Court are all behind.

In the first half of the year, the bulk real estate transactions in Beijing reached 24.4 billion yuan, down 5.45% year-on-year, and the overall market was active and stable. Buyers' demand for their own use is also very strong. Among the 14 transactions recorded in the first half of the year, 4 were self-use buyers, accounting for about 23% of the transaction volume, exceeding the proportion of last year.

It is worth noting that Beijing has performed well in attracting foreign investment. In the first half of the year, it attracted 654.38+008 billion yuan of foreign investment, surpassing Shanghai's 654.38+007 billion yuan for the first time, becoming the "new darling" of foreign investment.

Can this trend continue? Liu Bing, deputy managing director of dtz China Capital Market Department, believes that foreign investors have been optimistic about Beijing since 20 18. In 20 18 and 20 19 years, foreign capital accounted for nearly 30% of Beijing's real estate block transactions.

Liu Bing said that Shanghai has become the most important investment destination for foreign investors, because as early as 2009, the Beijing office market experienced high supply, high vacancy rate and low rent, and foreign investors lacked confidence in its prospects. At that time, Shanghai was just the opposite, and the market vacancy rate was declining, which gave birth to the active real estate transactions in Shanghai. But in recent years, Beijing has become the most stable office market in China, with the highest rent, low vacancy rate and higher rental return rate than Shanghai, so foreign investors have turned their attention to Beijing.

In this regard, Zhang Weimin, executive director of dtz Huadong Capital Market Department, also believes that it is a fact that the rental return rate of Grade A office buildings in Shanghai's core area is lower than that in Beijing. In the next five years, more than 6 million square meters of Grade A office buildings will enter the market, equivalent to 50% of the existing stock, which will put pressure on leasing. In addition, many foreign investors bought real estate in Shanghai and began to seek investment projects in other first-tier cities and strong second-tier cities.

However, Zhang Weimin thinks that Shanghai is better than Beijing in terms of asset realization and liquidity, because Shanghai is considered to be the most transparent and mature bulk property rights trading market in China, and it is often the first stop for foreign capital to enter China. In addition, its high liquidity and open policy have also attracted the demand of mainland capital or self-use customers, such as Haitong Securities' acquisition of Greenland Huangpu Riverside Office Building and Skyqi's acquisition of Dahongqiao R&F Property.

Guangzhou's vacancy rate is low, and Shenzhen's net absorption is leading.

Compared with Beijing and Shanghai, which account for 80% of the total transaction volume, Guangzhou and Shenzhen only account for 1 1% of the total real estate transaction volume, and the total amount exceeds 100 billion yuan, which is significantly lower than that in the second half of last year.

However, according to Su Jianting, director and executive director of the Capital Market Department in Central China, dtz, the office market in Guangzhou is very stable. Even affected by the epidemic, the vacancy rate of office buildings in Guangzhou was still at a low level of 6.7% in the second quarter, and the rent also achieved the lowest decline in first-tier cities, showing strong resilience and risk resistance. In addition, Standard Chartered Bank, Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange have all recently settled in Guangzhou due to the use of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area concept by major institutions to bless Guangzhou real estate.

From Shenzhen's point of view, in the first half of the year, the bulk real estate transactions were 5.6 billion yuan, down 78% year-on-year, but the number of cases only dropped by 2 cases, mainly small and medium-sized transactions, with an average turnover of about 500 million yuan. However, large-scale real estate transactions in Shenzhen are still active if we do not consider the increase in the overall transaction amount caused by the two super-large transactions of OCT Building and Central City in the same period last year.

It is noteworthy that Shenzhen's industrial property has returned to the stage of real estate block trading. In the first half of the year, there were 3 industrial property transactions, which contributed about 2 1% of the transaction volume, accounting for more than the whole year of last year. The old concept of industrial real estate was once a hot investment spot in Shenzhen. After the transaction was quiet last year, it began to recover this year.

If investors want to take advantage of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area TMT (Digital New Media Industry), how should they choose between Guangzhou and Shenzhen? Su Yuting said that Shenzhen pays attention to hardware manufacturing and technological innovation, while Guangzhou pays attention to online and virtual aspects, especially the game industry and e-commerce live broadcast. Among them, there are two top 3 game companies in Guangzhou. Driven by the industry environment, the performance of relevant regions is also particularly eye-catching. For example, Tianhe District ranks first in Guangzhou's GDP because it benefits from the game industry. Pazhou has attracted well-known enterprises such as Alibaba, Vipshop, Xiaomi and Gome under the favorable effect of headquarters gathering. Therefore, Pazhou has an increasing demand for office space. In the future, it may undertake the Pearl River New Town and become the next CBD in Guangzhou.

Chen Junru, director and director of dtz South China Capital Market Department, said that Shenzhen's strong demand and growth momentum make investors full of confidence in the transformation of Grade A office buildings in Shenzhen, and the strong consumption upgrading demand and growth momentum brought by the young and energetic population structure will also stimulate the future development of retail properties.

Chen Junru further explained that Shenzhen has a clear positioning in many industries with cutting-edge international competitiveness and strong folk vitality, which has also stimulated considerable rental demand. In the first half of this year, the net absorption of 6.5438+0.4 million square meters of Grade A office buildings in Shenzhen has exceeded the whole year of 2065.438+09, far ahead of other first-tier cities. For example, high-tech Internet companies such as Huami Technology and JD.COM have also rented or expanded their rents.

The return on investment in bulk properties will increase, and developers will accelerate the destocking of commercial inventory.

Judging from the types of real estate transactions in the first half of the year, office buildings /R&D office buildings were sought after by buyers. According to the statistics of dtz, the number of retail property transactions dropped from 65,438+07 in the second half of 2065 to 65,438+00 in the first half of 2020. However, the return on investment of bulk properties has further improved this year. The capitalization rate of office and retail properties in first-tier cities increased 10%-30% on average compared with 20 19, and the capitalization rate of logistics warehousing increased 10%-20% on average compared with 20 19.

"Although the epidemic has had an impact on the real estate block trading market, with the decline of the epidemic, the mentality of investors has also changed greatly, and the market is gradually recovering." Ye, president of dtz Greater China Capital Market Department and head of China Capital Market Department, said so.

In the second half of the year, it is expected that office projects with stable cash flow and high occupancy rate in Shanghai will be more popular; Industrial park properties will be sought after; Self-use buyers will become the main force of asset acquisition. In contrast, industrial property will continue to be an important investment hotspot in Shenzhen real estate block trading market.

In Beijing, Tongzhou may become an important "battlefield" for large-scale real estate transactions in Beijing. In the first half of the year, the Three Gorges Group officially signed a contract with Tongzhou Chengda Plaza, and Jinghang Plaza will also be built into Beijing Beitou Aegean Shopping Park. The frequent occurrence of the above-mentioned real estate block transactions in Tongzhou also shows that the market is optimistic about the region.

Ye believes that under the influence of the epidemic, the demand for real estate financing will increase in the second half of the year, while bank financing may be relatively tight, and everyone's layout strategy will be adjusted. It is foreseeable that domestic institutions will continue to expand their market share in the future, and developers will launch large-scale asset packages in order to speed up the removal of commercial stocks.

Beijing News reporter Yuan Xiuli Image source dtz

Editor Wu Xin School vs. Liu Baoqing?