In 2050, the elderly population in Beishangguang will exceed 300 million, and there is great potential for pension real estate.

The pension real estate market, once under the unilateral jurisdiction of the government, has gradually become a potential development field for private real estate developers and investors. According to the data of the United Nations Population Agency, China has entered the stage of rapid growth of the elderly population, and the population over 65 will reach 200 million in 2025 and exceed 300 million in 2050. However, China's existing pension real estate stock is limited and the types are relatively single. Realizing that one way to solve the serious shortage of pension real estate is the participation of the government and social forces, the central government has introduced many policies to attract foreign investors and domestic private enterprises to enter the pension real estate market. The pension real estate market in first-tier cities has great potential.

The market is huge, but the development model is still immature.

20 16 12 The General Office of the State Council, China issued "Several Opinions on Fully Liberalizing the Aged Care Service Market and Improving the Quality of Aged Care Service", proposing to fully liberalize the aged care service market. By 2020, the aged care service market will be fully liberalized, and the effective supply capacity of aged care services and products will be greatly improved. The supply structure and the aged care service industry will become new kinetic energy to promote economic and social development. The "Opinions" clearly put forward the inclination to home community service, further expand nursing service resources, and vigorously cultivate and develop miniaturized, chained and specialized service institutions. Encourage the construction of small community nursing homes to meet the needs of the elderly. By 2020, the proportion of government-run pension beds in the total number of local pension beds will not exceed 50%. Encourage social forces to participate in the reform of public pension institutions through sole proprietorship, joint venture, cooperation, joint venture, equity participation and leasing.

Colliers International found that there are plenty of development opportunities for both developers and investors, especially in the first-tier cities in China. Among the three major cities of Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, the population over 65 is higher than the national average and close to that of the United States, Britain and Japan. At the same time, families in first-tier cities are usually only-child families with high disposable income and relatively high requirements for medical care. These factors will promote the strong demand of the pension real estate industry in the coming decades. However, Xie Jingyu, senior director of China Research Department of Colliers International, believes that the pension real estate market segment of the real estate market is still in its infancy. Although some developers and investors have tried a variety of business models, the most popular profit model still needs further exploration.

"In order to meet the urgent needs of the pension real estate market, the central government has promoted the implementation of policies to attract foreign investment. However, major policies should be formulated according to local conditions and implemented in an orderly manner to encourage private enterprises to allocate resources in this field. Although the supporting policies have not yet been implemented, there are many opportunities for investors and developers in the market. It is very important for developers to study the current business model and their own comparative advantages. Developers should deeply analyze the whole development process and think deeply about how to choose the best partner. With the gradual distribution of government subsidies and benefits, the earlier the action, the greater the benefit. " Xie Jingyu said.

The market lacks experienced operators.

Talking about the most important problems in the market practice of China's pension real estate market, Deng Yijun, executive director of China Industry and Industrial Real Estate Services of Colliers International, said: "First of all, it is certain that the market has invested or can invest a lot of money in this field. However, the market lacks experienced operators. Foreign operators have the ability to bring mature business service concepts, but they are still slightly unaccustomed to domestic consumer demand. " Deng Yijun said that the investment in pension real estate is generally divided into two parts: real estate and operators. Traditional real estate enterprises generally tend to realize the sale or rental value of old-age land and real estate. But in the absence of brand operators, this value is difficult to reflect, which is similar to hotel property. In contrast, another group of investors have taken a fancy to the huge pension market, preferring to invest in light assets operators, and can expand rapidly according to their respective service positioning.

Colliers International also conducted an in-depth study on the barriers for market participants to enter this market segment. Deng Yijun thinks: "As far as real estate is concerned, the value of land and real estate comes from the service orientation, crowd orientation and charging standard of old-age care. Developers take land in the name of providing for the aged and sell it after development. If the follow-up pension service can't keep up, buyers will feel cheated. However, the definition of the quantity and quality of services provided is reasonable, the market reference standard is still in the default state, and even consumers themselves have no experience to evaluate. " As for operators, Deng Yijun said that foreign investors have management and service experience, but the consumption habits and service requirements of elderly consumers in China are still being explored. Local operators may know the consumption needs of the elderly, but most of them lack management or marketing experience. Therefore, these years are a period of rapid market expansion, and most market participants are in the stage of groping and trying, trying and practicing a successful model.

The country's new foreign exchange policy restricts overseas housing purchase.

On 20 16, 12 and 3 1 day, the state administration of foreign exchange issued an announcement, stipulating that from 20 17 and 1 day, individuals must clearly fill in the purpose of purchasing foreign exchange, and stated that foreign exchange will not be used to purchase overseas real estate or invest in related insurance products, nor will individuals be used. If there is any violation, it will be listed in the "attention list", and individuals will not enjoy the personal convenience line in the current year and the next two years, and must be investigated for anti-money laundering. Analysts pointed out that the new foreign exchange policy is aimed at overseas housing purchase, and China people's activities of purchasing overseas real estate may be restrained, but it may also stimulate more individuals to transfer funds and avoid further tightening of foreign exchange control in the later period.

Savills said that concerns about the continuous outflow of private and institutional capital put pressure on the RMB to depreciate further, and the announcement was a response to market concerns. This round of regulations is consistent with the main purpose of several regulations last year, that is, to fill policy loopholes and promote the better implementation of existing regulations, rather than simply introducing new policies and restrictions. This announcement may make it more difficult for individuals to transfer funds abroad, so China people's purchase of overseas properties may be restrained. Some people have also analyzed that although the difficulty has increased, it may also stimulate more individuals to transfer funds and avoid further tightening of foreign exchange controls in the later period. No matter what policies are introduced, China's capital outflow will continue, but stricter implementation of the policies should slow down the pace of capital outflow, help stabilize the exchange rate and ease the pressure on China to reduce its foreign exchange reserves.

(The above answers were published on 20 17-02-03. Please refer to the current actual purchase policy. )

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