In 2022, the property market sales may reach 1.4 trillion, and the real estate industry has gone through a bumpy dawn.

In 2022, the real estate industry was extremely difficult. It is estimated by the industry that after the transaction scale of new commercial housing in China has reached more than 654.38+07 billion square meters for five consecutive years, it will drop to about 654.38+04 billion square meters in 2022, and the estimated sales will drop to about 654.38+04 trillion yuan.

This year, Zhengzhou fired the first shot to save second-tier cities, and 39 cities including Hangzhou relaxed their purchase restrictions. Jinan and other cities relaxed their loan restrictions. The new policy of the property market followed; 165438+ 10, policies such as "finance 16" and refinancing restart were introduced, which helped the real estate industry to usher in the dawn. As a pillar industry of the economy, the resilience of the real estate industry still exists.

"Under the pressure of the market itself, we need to build confidence." At the recent extraordinary shareholders' meeting of Vanke, Yu Liang, Chairman of Vanke's Board of Directors, said that the strength and breadth of policy guidance exceeded expectations, which injected vitality into the future development of the industry, and the dawn gradually turned to dawn.

More than 300 cities, more than 1000 new policies.

Stabilize sales and enhance confidence

Under the positioning of "staying in the house and not speculating", in 2022, the space of "making policies due to the city" gradually opened up. The core is to stabilize market expectations and achieve a soft landing of the industry, rather than blindly stimulating the irrational recovery of the market.

Since Zhengzhou started the "first shot" of second-tier cities to save the market, relevant policies in various places have been introduced one after another. Looking back on 2022, according to Kerry's statistics, 39 cities relaxed their purchase restrictions, and Ningbo and Foshan completely canceled their purchase restrictions; The minimum down payment ratio of the first suite in more than 80 cities has dropped to 20%; In 57 cities, housing is recognized and loans are not recognized to promote replacement demand to enter the market; Seven cities relaxed the price limit, and Xi' an explicitly canceled the release mechanism of second-hand housing guidance price; 170 preferential fiscal and taxation policies to support the market, including reducing and exempting taxes and fees for housing transfer and granting financial subsidies to stimulate the demand for housing purchase; 243 cities relaxed provident fund loans?

According to the monitoring data of the Central Finger Hospital, since 2022, more than 300 provinces, cities and counties have issued more than 1000 new policies for the property market, and the frequency of optimization has reached the peak in recent years.

"Since the beginning of this year, many places have combined real estate control policies with policies such as talents, population and leasing, such as housing support for families with many children, provident fund housing for' one person buying a house to help the whole family', leasing to break the purchase restriction, and supporting centralized housing purchase." Chen Wenjing, director of market research in the Index Division of the Central Reference Institute, told the Securities Daily that these innovative policies have been extended to hot cities after being promoted in second-and third-tier cities.

In addition, the demand-side policy optimization and adjustment also includes relaxing the lottery of new houses and encouraging the shed to be changed into a house ticket. Supply-side measures include relaxing pre-sale evidence collection, relaxing supervision of pre-sale funds, relaxing local auction conditions, and supporting housing financing.

More importantly, the recently held Central Economic Work Conference emphasized "ensuring the delivery of houses, people's livelihood and stability", which not only protects people's livelihood, but also protects market players, stabilizes expectations, relieves the worries of buyers, and then drives enterprises to increase investment.

"There is still room for further relaxation in the regulatory policies of key cities, such as adjusting the mortgage recognition, relaxing the purchase restriction and reducing the down payment ratio." Guan Rongxue, a senior analyst at Zhuge Housing Search Data Research Center, told the Securities Daily that it is expected that the real estate market will remain stable in 2023, the effect of easing policy will gradually ferment, and the market will slowly pick up from the bottom.

During this period, it is still necessary to effectively prevent and resolve the risks of high-quality head housing enterprises and reduce the overall debt level of the industry. To do this, financial services must keep up.

"Three arrows in one go" stable financing

Accelerate risk clearance

In the coming year of 2022, liquidity risk events such as default of wealth management products, debt extension and offer exchange still occur from time to time, and the overall debt repayment pressure of the real estate industry will not decrease. About 40 of the top 100 real estate enterprises have defaulted on their debts, which is repeatedly mentioned by the regulatory authorities to effectively prevent and resolve risks in the real estate sector.

In this context, the real estate financing policy has gradually loosened. From the beginning of the year, it was clear that M&A loans were no longer included in the "three red lines" to August, when China Bond increased credit to support housing enterprises to issue bonds. In September, the regulatory authorities instructed banks to add 600 billion yuan in real estate financing. Until June, 65438+ 10, some housing enterprises were allowed to raise A shares, and the breadth and intensity of adjustment were constantly increasing.

"In the first half of the year, the company's cash flow mainly came from sales receipts, asset realization and a small amount of cash obtained from other channels, and the financing ratio was extremely low." A person from the financing department of a real estate enterprise told the Securities Daily that the overall financing environment of the industry has improved in the second half of the year thanks to policy support. However, due to the prudent strategy of financial institutions and the credit enhancement of enterprises' own assets, it is still not easy to fill the cash flow by broadening financing channels.

According to the monitoring of the Central Hospital, in 2022, from 1 to1,the total non-bank financing of real estate enterprises was 779.63 billion yuan, down 51.7% year-on-year; It is estimated that non-bank financing will reach about 900 billion yuan in 2022, down 50% year-on-year. What changes with it is the financing structure of housing enterprises.

"Credit bonds accounted for half of non-bank financing, up 22.5 percentage points year on year; ABS financing accounted for more than 30%, up 8.5 percentage points year-on-year. " Liu Shui, research director of the Enterprise Division of the Central Reference Institute, told the Securities Daily that the proportion of overseas debt and trust financing dropped sharply, and the proportion of overseas debt was only 2.3%, a year-on-year decrease of 14. 1 percentage point.

"Domestic debt has become the' pillar' of non-bank financing for housing enterprises this year." Guan Rong said.

Xiao Yunxiang, a senior analyst at Tongce Research Institute, told the Securities Daily that in the early stage, housing enterprises made efforts in diversified financing channels, such as ABS, green bonds, rental houses, industrial parks REITs, etc., but mainly high-quality housing enterprises, state-owned enterprises and urban investment. It is more difficult for private housing enterprises to raise funds at home and abroad.

Fortunately, the policy warmth at the end of 2022 inspired the industry. The watershed appeared in June 5438+065438+ 10, which fundamentally changed the financing attitude of housing enterprises, and the direction of bail-out changed from "quality projects" to "coexistence of projects and enterprises", which was regarded as an important turning point for housing enterprises to get through the darkness and usher in the dawn.

165438+1October 1 1, "Finance16" issued by the central bank and the China Banking Regulatory Commission; 165438+1On October 28th, CSRC issued "Five Articles of New China" to support real estate equity financing; 65438+February 2 1 day, the CSRC issued a document again, allowing qualified real estate enterprises to "borrow" listed real estate enterprises.

During this period, in practice, credit, bonds and equity financing are "killing three birds with one arrow". Up to now, more than 60 banks have granted credit to housing enterprises exceeding 4.8 trillion yuan; 8 private real estate enterprises registered to issue bonds 1, 2 1 100 million yuan; More than 32 listed real estate enterprises disclosed their equity financing intentions or plans, among which Huaxia Happiness and other real estate enterprises were among them.

After restarting equity financing and backdoor listing for many years, many types of real estate enterprises and upstream and downstream related enterprises are expected to benefit. Many analysts and related persons of real estate enterprises have expressed similar views to the reporters of Securities Daily. "On the one hand, it is conducive to reducing the overall debt level and financing cost of the industry and improving cash flow; On the other hand, real estate enterprises out of danger can further achieve the goal of' guaranteeing the delivery of houses' and debt restructuring. Real estate enterprises that are not out of danger can alleviate the pressure of debt repayment, and high-quality real estate enterprises will usher in the opportunity of acquisition and expansion. "

Looking forward to the market outlook, it is expected that more housing enterprises will carry out business restructuring and asset replacement to speed up the clearing of industry risks. In addition, with the stabilization of sales, it is expected to bring second growth opportunities for enterprises, and the industry concentration will be further enhanced, forming a new competitive pattern.

The era of great development is over.

Transition to a new development model

When stabilizing real estate is listed as "preventing and resolving major economic and financial tasks", faced with the great changes in the current industry and the re-established industry competition pattern after the clearing of the industry in the future, the helm of real estate enterprises also needs to re-plan the layout and forge ahead.

"The industry difficulties have passed, and the dawn is now. There will indeed be some challenges and pressures in the future. " Zhu Jiusheng, president of Vanke, said at the above-mentioned extraordinary shareholders' meeting that in the medium and long term, Vanke has three things to adhere to for a long time: first, it must operate steadily; Second, we should keep the development business in the first camp; Third, we must truly realize the transformation from real estate development to real estate development, management and service, and resolutely complete the transformation.

"For beautiful property buyers, this is not the first time we have felt the biting chill. The clearing of the industry is a necessary process and there are opportunities. " Midea's real estate management told the Securities Daily reporter that in the future, the company will adjust its development strategy, stop pursuing scale, reduce debt, slow down and gradually improve its profitability. We should take the development chain business as the main axis, continue to promote diversified real estate-related businesses, deepen the future-oriented real estate technology capabilities, that is, intelligent and assembled buildings, and maintain a sustained and stable growth momentum.

Behind the new development goals set by stable housing enterprises, it indicates that the real estate industry needs to speed up the smooth transition to a new development model.

"The era of large-scale development is over. The number of' 100 billion housing enterprises' has dropped from 42 at the peak to less than 20 now. The era of scale expansion based on the "old three high" model of "high debt, high leverage and high turnover" has ended. Exploring a new development model is the only way out. For example, we can consider increasing the layout of long-term rent, affordable housing, urban renewal and green technology. " Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, told the Securities Daily reporter that, more importantly, China has the largest residential service market in the world, with a scale of over 30 trillion yuan, and related enterprises can take a diversified development path around this field.

"There is almost no land acquisition this year, but voting meetings are still very frequent, because people who invest in the extension line are busy launching construction projects." The management of a real estate company told the Securities Daily that this is one of the important business lines that the company needs to expand vigorously in the future.

"The correct demand of the agent construction market is gestating new demand. For example, the projects of city investment companies and asset management companies need to be taken over by construction companies, and their market scale is huge. " Xiao Yunxiang said that with the arrival of the stock era and the professional development of the industry, the strategic focus of real estate business is gradually changing from asset management to light asset strategy, and asset management and property services are the key areas to explore new development models.

In Liu Shui's view, the new development model involves the direction of light assets such as leasing, property management, commercial management and agent construction, as well as urban renewal to revitalize the stock market. In addition, warehousing and logistics, industrial park REITs and real estate private investment funds are also important new areas.

It is worth mentioning that capital is helping the real estate industry enter a new development period. For example, the establishment of REITs market with income and risk between the securities market and the bond market has achieved initial results. Up to now, four public REITs have been rented and listed, the first biomedical industrial park REITs was listed on February 27th, 65438, and the first private enterprise warehousing and logistics public REITs was approved? In the industry's view, enriching the basic assets of REITs is conducive to building a new housing development model of "rent and purchase simultaneously".

After 2022, the industry ushered in a real turning point. Looking forward to 2023, it can be expected that the housing enterprises in danger will continue to clear out in an orderly manner, and the business operation is expected to gradually return to the right track, accelerate the transformation to a new model, and build a solid foundation for the healthy development of the real estate industry in the future.