The secret of high housing prices was finally revealed.

Why is Beijing's regulatory policy so dead? Why are housing enterprises still grabbing land under the strictest regulation in history? Can the house still be bought? Will house prices fall?

Viagra has a high school classmate named Xu Pangpang who is now in Nanjing. Although he doesn't like studying in high school, he loves thinking. Recently, he often asks Viagra these questions.

Viagra has been thinking, so today I will briefly talk about the phenomenon of thinking and first-line observation these days: I hope dry goods are useful.

1: Why should we learn from Beijing's good example in regulation? In fact, it is not because Beijing's policy strength is only once, but Beijing's awareness of property market regulation is indeed several levels higher than other cities.

Compared with other cities, they are afraid of falling house prices. This round of regulation and control brewed in Beijing in early March came out at least in the middle of the market, otherwise the second half of March is likely to be a chicken feather.

2. The principle of this round of regulation is no longer one city, one policy, but one street.

Judging from the policy content, it seems that there are still differences among cities, but we should pay attention to them. In fact, you will intensively formulate and introduce policies. Except for Beijing, other cities are well aware of the passive actions after the meeting of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development.

Round after round of regulation from south to north has blossomed everywhere. In fact, there is also a basic principle, that is, the bottom cap. This sentence seems simple, but it actually has many connotations:

The principle of blocking is that the house cannot be speculated, and the funds should go to the third and fourth lines.

The principle of bottoming is that systemic financial risks cannot occur, and the policy of regulation is not a long-term mechanism.

The whole country includes Fuzhou, Chengdu, Jiaxing, Jurong, Dongguan, Fuyang, Cangzhou, Guangzhou, Xiamen, Zhuozhou, sanhe city, Dachang, Xianghe, Gu 'an, Huailai, Zhongshan, Foshan, Changsha, Baoding, Zhengzhou, Nanjing, Qingdao, Sanya, Nanchang and Hangzhou.

3: 20 17, the unified real estate registration system will usher in a "decisive year", and strive to access high-level information platforms in all cities and counties before the end of the year. By then, a person has bought several suites all over the country. As long as they register, they are expected to inquire according to law.

It's only a few years before you can make money from a house. Land finance is unsustainable, and the next round of leeks will change from land to house.

4. What is the ideal state of this round of regulation?

In that big word, a house is for living. In fact, the core is the population trend. Cities such as Beijing and Shanghai have the demand of population overflow, and the regulation will inevitably be great. But other people accept the city, and the regulation is actually just to curb the virtual fire.

Don't be discouraged if you don't do well in the first half of the year.

Because: the founding of the party on July 1st, the founding of the army on August 1st and the founding of the country on November 11th were all completed in the second half of the year, and the first half of the year was either the May 4th Youth Day or the Children's Day, which was immature.

Although the property market regulation frequently appeared in the first half of 20 17, the capital chain of most enterprises is stable and will be magnificent in the second half of the year. How to market the 20 16 series of rehmannia glutinosa and how to adapt to the policy will be a point of view.

6. Why are housing enterprises still actively taking land?

This actually involves how to calculate the index of market cooling. Judging from the land facts, there is a simple logic, that is, the difference between the land acquisition area and the planned area is about 20%, the difference between high-volume plots is smaller, and the difference between low-volume plots is higher. In other words, if a piece of land is 700,000 square meters, the actual overall planning area may be around 6,543,800 square meters.

So in this case, looking at the recent plots in Beijing, especially commercial plots, the price has indeed come down.

7. Real estate regulation has been tightened, but there is still a lot of money.

The furthest distance in the world is-a friend circle advertisement "I received a recommendation advertisement for a small loan.

You received a new recommendation from Hermes. "

8. There is a game relationship between banks and financial institutions and the central bank. If they don't drain water, they will fall to the ground and play dead. If they release water, they will speculate in real estate.

9. In recent years, the liberalization of M2 has brought about an increase in house prices, which in turn has pushed up the operating costs such as rent and labor, and the pressure on enterprises' operation has become increasingly great. The price increase of upstream raw materials has become the last straw to crush camels. So the risk of real estate is not real estate risk, but the risk of China economy.

10: The Federal Reserve has definitely entered the interest rate hike cycle, and the spread between China and the United States has obviously narrowed. The middle class has a very obvious outflow pressure on money, and the mother has been unable to do so. Continue to release water, capital flight will inevitably accelerate, RMB exchange rate pressure is great, and it is not impossible to have a vicious financial crisis. What about cruelty?

1 1: This winter, China's economy is likely to be much longer and colder than we thought. Therefore, it is suggested that it is better to have cash than to invest blindly, especially not to use bullets in areas with uncertain returns.

12: In recent days, under the heaviest regulation in history, the regulation of local governments has reached its limit. But in many cities, including Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, there are still 10 companies, and 20 companies grab every package. Today, Nanjing Tupai shakes the number in minutes.

It comes down to too much money. The regulation of the property market can't move the market yet, and the market trend still depends on the credit orientation. The short-term impact of more than ten trillion yuan issued last year cannot be cancelled.

13: The funds of housing enterprises are unprecedentedly loose, including tens of billions of cash from Vanke, Evergrande and Sunac.

14: Vanke's 20 16 annual report released yesterday shows that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies is 2 102 billion yuan; The core net profit of Evergrande 20 16 is 20.8 billion yuan, and the net profit of Country Garden (Dynamic) 2011500 million yuan. ICBC's annual net profit reached 279,654.38 billion yuan.

The three 300 billion-class real estate enterprises in the real estate universe have a total profit of 53.3 billion, equivalent to 19% of ICBC.

15: This regulation is the most difficult to achieve 1 policy marginal effect in history, because the housing and construction sector is destroying the banking system because of the asset panic under the capital tide. The key is how to clean it up if there is debt risk in the real economy.

16: Late stage: I have been cautious about buying a house recently, just need to choose the core. And if it is not recommended to sell the property in the core area, high-quality assets will be valuable in any year.

(The above answers were published on 20 17-04-25. Please refer to the actual situation for the current purchase policy. )

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