Liquor enters a "negative era"

In the first half of 2020, among 19 listed companies, 14 company's revenue declined, which is the first time that liquor companies have experienced a decline in collective performance since 20 14.

At the same time, according to the data of China Liquor Association, the output of liquor industry has declined for three consecutive years. In 20 19, the output of liquor was 7.859 million tons, which was nearly 10% lower than the previous year's 87120,000 tons. The number of liquor enterprises above designated size decreased to 1 176 for three consecutive years.

Although the performance indicators of the liquor sector have declined collectively, it does not seem to affect the enthusiasm of investors to invest in liquor stocks. Before April 2020, the liquor sector was highly consistent with the Shanghai Composite Index, but after April, it went out of the independent market. In the first half of the year, the liquor sector rose as high as 25.7%, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.26%. As of September 8, 2020, the liquor sector has increased by 52.97% this year. However, after the deadline of August 3 1 semi-annual report, there was a slight correction in the liquor sector.

Chart 1: comparison chart between liquor sector and Shanghai stock index since this year.

Liquor business performance declined. How should liquor enterprises respond in the future?

According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, from June to June 2020, the output of liquor enterprises above designated size in China was 35010.5 kiloliter, down 8.59% year-on-year; Sales revenue was 273.668 billion yuan, down1.27% year-on-year; The profit was 72.992 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.22%. At the same time, 19 liquor listed companies achieved revenue of129.927 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.15%; The net profit was 47.845 billion yuan, up 8% year-on-year.

Regardless of the growth rate of revenue or net profit, the performance of listed wine companies is significantly higher than the industry average. Under the influence of the superposition effect of COVID-19 epidemic, the industry concentration has been further enhanced.

Except Maotai, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, Jiugui Liquor and ST Huangtai, the revenues of other 14 companies all decreased year-on-year. Among them, Fang Shuijing, Kouzijiao, Li Qingqing Fenjiu, Yingjia Winery and Laobaigan Liquor dropped significantly, followed by Golden Seed Wine, Yanghe Stock, Shede Wine, Yilite, Jin Hui Wine, Gu Jing Winery and Jin Shiyuan Wine. Among them, Fang Shuijing's revenue halved, from 169 billion yuan in the first half of 20 19 to 804 million yuan in the first half of 2020, a decrease of 5.244438+0%.

Chart 2: 19 Performance indicators of listed liquor enterprises in the first half of 2020.

In the first half of the year, the trend of market share concentrated in the head became more and more obvious.

Although the revenue of 14 company declined, driven by the rapid growth of Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, 19 company as a whole still achieved year-on-year growth, although the growth rate was only 2. 15%. The total revenue of Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye was 74.72 billion yuan, and the total revenue increased by12.1%; The total net profit was 33.457 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 65.438+04.2%, leading the whole industry.

In the first half of 2020, the total revenue of the six famous wine listed companies was 654.38+008.204 billion yuan, accounting for 85.33%, and the total profits of the six famous wine listed companies accounted for 94.36%.

In terms of net profit, except for Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD, Shanxi Fenjiu, Jiugui Liquor and *ST Huangtai, the other 13 enterprises all experienced negative growth. Among them, *ST Huangtai won the first place in net profit growth with an increase rate of 65,438+065,438+08.47%, followed by Shanxi Fenjiu, Jiugui Liquor, LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD and Huangtai. They are 33.05%, 18.42%, 17. 12%, 16.68% and 13.29% respectively.

In a word, influenced by the epidemic situation in COVID-19, the economic environment, market demand and consumption patterns have all undergone major changes, and the consumption scenarios of liquor are limited. In the first half of 2020, the overall development of liquor industry is under great pressure.

Under the catalysis of the epidemic situation, the differentiation of liquor industry is increasing, and high-end brands always control the market initiative. Compared with enterprises below the waist, head liquor enterprises showed tenacious anti-risk ability in the special period of epidemic situation.

Judging from the double growth of revenue and net profit, Maotai, Wuliangye and Shanxi Fenjiu have successfully passed the "big test" of this epidemic regardless of their ability to resist risks or cope with emergencies.

Although the epidemic caused the performance of major wine companies to decline, Kweichow Moutai still achieved steady growth in revenue and net profit. In the first half of 2020, Kweichow Moutai achieved an operating income of 43.953 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of11.31%; The net profit was 22.602 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 65,438+03.29%.

For a long time, Kweichow Moutai has been popular with many institutions. Since the beginning of this year, even the sudden epidemic has failed to shake the market's confidence in Kweichow Moutai. The data shows that the cumulative increase of the stock price in the first half of the year reached 25.46%. It is reported that among the top ten listed companies in the second quarter, Kweichow Moutai was held by 1360 funds, making it the listed company with the largest number of funds. By the close of September 8th, the market value of Kweichow Moutai was 2 15 trillion yuan, ranking first among listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, far higher than the second-ranked Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (1.76 trillion yuan).

The reason why the status of Kweichow Moutai is hard to shake is not unrelated to its development strategy. In 20 16, Li Baofang, then the chairman of the board of directors, put forward the strategy of "two-wheel drive" of Kweichow Moutai: Moutai and series of liquors kept pace. After this concept was put forward, the revenue of Moutai series surged from 690 million yuan in the first half of 20 16 to 4.65 billion yuan.

For the results of the semi-annual report in 2020, Kweichow Moutai said that the company's main indicators maintained "double-digit" growth in the first half of the year, laying a solid foundation for completing the annual target. In the second half of the year, the company will adhere to the concept of high-quality development, focus on implementing the "Five Unswervings", make new breakthroughs in deepening reform, embody new requirements in strict management, strive for new measures in the ecological environment, identify new goals in high-quality development, achieve new results in strictly administering the party, and strive to promote the company to achieve better development. "

In the first half of the year, Wuliangye achieved revenue of 30.768 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 65,438+03.32%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 65.438+0.0855 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 654.38+06.28%.

Specifically, the company's liquor sales in the first half of the year reached 2.81.67 billion yuan, accounting for 9 1.55% of revenue, while the gross profit margin of liquor was 80.27%, an increase of 2. 1. 1% over the same period of last year. In addition, the company's monetary funds accounted for 58.98% of the total assets, up 2.34% year-on-year.

It can be said that Wuliangye handed over a beautiful answer sheet in the context of the epidemic. In this regard, Wuliangye said: "In terms of innovation system, Wuliangye cooperated with Sina Group to launch a' digital wine certificate' based on blockchain technology to tap the consumption and investment value of Wuliangye."

In July this year, Wuliangye new retail company officially opened, and actively created a "vertical ecological empowerment platform" integrating brand promotion platform, product sales platform, consumer interaction platform and online market management platform. In addition, the Wuliangye cloud store platform has been launched, and all Wuliangye specialty stores in China have been launched, building online and offline integrated marketing interaction and providing contactless product distribution services.

The above measures are also a solid step for the high-quality development of Wuliangye. Its clear marketing system has boosted the steady growth of Wuliangye's performance.

In the first half of this year, Shanxi Liquor achieved revenue of 6.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%; The net profit of returning to the mother was 65.438+60.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.05%.

In the long run, the growth rate of Shanxi liquor is still in the forefront of the industry. The data shows that from 20 17 to 20 19, the revenue growth rate of Shanxi Fenjiu was 37.06%, 47.48% and 25.79% respectively, which was much higher than that of LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD (20.5%, 25.6%, 21./kloc-0).

Judging from the capital market, Shanxi Fenjiu is really favored by the market. The data shows that as of September 8, 2020, the cumulative increase of Shanxi Fenjiu was 1 10.93%, much higher than the 50% of the liquor index.

It is reported that the good performance of Shanxi Liquor in the first half of the year is mainly attributed to three factors: First, Shanxi Liquor has been widely promoted nationwide since last year, and a large amount of investment in the southern market has contributed a large part of the performance; Second, the health wines such as Zhuyeqing under Shanxi Fenjiu have grown rapidly; Third, after the completion of the mixed reform, the internal relations of Shanxi Fenjiu were sorted out smoothly and the efficiency of resource allocation was improved.

According to the market planning of Shanxi Fenjiu, Shanxi Fenjiu will focus on the market south of the Yangtze River, with a view to greatly improving the performance of the core markets in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta.

The development of China wine industry has entered a "negative era". How should all kinds of wine enterprises deal with it?

We believe that only by embracing changes, such as creating new communication methods and new business models, can we be invincible in the competition.

First, integrate online and offline balanced development and attach importance to new media communication.

In the "negative era", wine enterprises will face a new generation of consumer groups and consumer demand. Wine enterprises should focus on the younger generation of their own products, actively communicate with users, pay attention to the spread of new media in the way of communication, and appear on the new media platform that consumers contact. At the same time, do a good job in the expansion of online integrated platforms, such as JD.COM, Tmall and other online integrated e-commerce platforms.

With the normalization of epidemic prevention and control, product innovation and business model innovation based on the Internet and big data will provide consumers with a more personalized and convenient service experience.

Second, actively carry out product innovation and transformation and upgrading.

With the intensification of competition, the surplus of product supply and the gradual maturity of consumers, the inheritance and innovation of the industry are bound to complement each other. Wine enterprises should focus more on product innovation and model innovation, and impress consumers with the transformation and upgrading of enterprises and the evolution of products.

For example, in the golden age of liquor, liquor enterprises should look for new models to lead the competition, such as channel monopoly strategy, office director strategy, main projects and tasting meeting model.

Third, leading wine enterprises should be good at using new technologies to empower them.

In the "negative era", it is also an era in which new technologies emerge one after another. Leading wine companies should use new technologies to enhance the market, brand and customer experience. For example, Wuliangye's terminal club and consumer club, Yanghe's blue classic send health and so on.

Fourth, small and medium-sized wine enterprises should try their best to seize the regional market.

Small and medium-sized wine enterprises should improve their share and structure in the stock market, among which structural improvement is more important. For example, Anhui Wangwen Winery set up a marketing center in Fuyang, focusing on the Fuyang market.

The arrival of the epidemic provides a critical period and a window period for the market layout outside the province. Regional leaders should seize the opportunity of outward development, attack when other wine enterprises "retreat" and win market opportunities.

Regional wine merchants should achieve "three focuses". First, focus on core products, cut off the last three products in the region, and also focus on product categories; Second, focus on superior channels, concentrate core resources on their own superior channels, and expand their market share in this channel; Third, concentrate resources and don't over-disperse them.

When the liquor industry enters the "negative era", the growth of enterprises will be the underlying logic of quantity and price, and the industry will present a situation of ice and fire. Poorly managed enterprises will continue to be depressed, and the phenomenon of mergers and acquisitions will be concentrated. "Whether it is the government or capital, the purpose of running a business is to develop well. If business continues to slump, getting rid of the burden becomes the most rational decision. M&A is also the inevitable result of market competition. " A brokerage analyst said frankly.