What are the factors that affect investment in real estate development?

Incomplete and inaccurate information, hasty investment decision. The information based on it is not accurate enough, or the preliminary investigation is not detailed, and the expectation of the purchasing power and sales prospect of the project is too optimistic, which will lead to a big deviation from the original estimate in the application. Unexpected adverse changes have taken place in the macro situation, causing various risks. This is also often encountered in economic life. The performance is as follows: first, the serious inflation and price increase in previous years have induced the price of building materials to rise, and the project cost has risen accordingly; The second is the currency issuance policy and bank credit policy; The third is the change of real estate supply and demand situation. The serious shortage of real estate supply has become history. If the supply exceeds the demand, the house price will naturally fall, the sales difficulty will increase, the promotion cost will increase, and it is almost impossible to sell faster. The fourth is the real estate policy and the resulting climate. For example, at present, the focus of banks' support for the real estate industry has changed from "development" to "purchase", which is not conducive to the development of real estate projects that have just been developed and need continuous investment.

Developers subjectively have deviations in understanding, judging or grasping the supply and demand situation of the real estate market, real estate policies and financial policies. Specific performance: developers believe their "feelings" too much, but in fact "feelings" are wrong or upside down. If some developers are too confident that they will easily find the "next home" and sell the project, it is not as expected; Some developers only consider and analyze the temporary market supply and demand when making project decisions, without considering the cyclical factors of development. The relationship between supply and demand is "different", or the estimation of the market and the judgment of the project's own advantages are too optimistic, which eventually leads to sales difficulties; Some developers believe too much in their own "Tao" (that is, the ability to obtain "good projects" through "relationships"), but their business strength (development strength, management ability and marketing ability) is insufficient or weak, so it is difficult to achieve the expected business performance in project operation. In addition, natural disasters and accidents are also the causes of engineering construction risks in real estate development.

Identification of real estate investment risk

How to correctly estimate and evaluate the risk of a real estate investment? The usual method is to calculate the investment risk rate, and its calculation method is as follows.

(A) the use of international real estate investment industry commonly used three indicators for identification.

1. Real estate investment operation rate.

Any real estate that can bring income will inevitably generate operating expenses. Maintain its ability to make money with profits. Operating rate is used to determine whether the net operating income of the investment report is true. The calculation formula is: operating rate = total annual operating expenses/total annual planned income.

According to the relevant survey data, it is feasible that the operating rate of new apartments is between 38% and 40%. The operating rates of office buildings and commercial buildings are different. The low operating rate shows that some costs are not considered in the investment plan. Too high indicates poor management. Too low or too high means too much risk.

2. Debt service income ratio.

Net operating income is the income after deducting all costs and expenses, and it is the basic source of debt repayment funds. Its ratio to debt repayment responsibility reflects the borrower's ability to repay the loan. Debt service income ratio = net operating income, the smaller the required annual debt service income ratio, the greater the risk of loan investment; On the contrary, the smaller the risk. Only when the ratio of debt service to interest income of residential assets exceeds the general requirement of 1: 2 can it be considered safe.

3. Guaranteed occupancy rate.

Break-even occupancy rate is another important index to calculate the safety of real estate. Its calculation formula is: break-even occupancy = total operating expenses in F years+amount of debt to be repaid every year). The higher the break-even occupancy of annual planned total income, the greater the investment risk. The acceptable occupancy rate of residential assets is generally 85%-90%.

Probability and mathematical statistics methods

Because risk measurement involves the probability distribution of possible results of real estate investment projects, probability theory and mathematical statistics can be used as identification methods of real estate investment risks. The investment results here mainly refer to the return rate of real estate investment. It is not easy to obtain the probability distribution of return on remuneration. Although market research can be conducted, the data of developed projects can be obtained, and the distribution or its estimation can be obtained through mathematical statistics. Even through statistical test, the results can only represent the probability distribution of the proposed development projects in a relative sense. This is because the real estate projects vary greatly, sometimes by more than ten meters. Even if other conditions are the same, the return on investment varies greatly. It is a common method for practical workers to determine the probability distribution of investment return rate of real estate projects by combining sampling survey with subjective probability judgment.

Second, the risk factors

1, batch

Pay attention to the location when buying a house, and pay more attention to the location when buying a shop. There may be a short difference, but the rent and selling price may be quite different. Therefore, when choosing the location of shops, it is necessary to conduct a detailed investigation and analysis of lots in order to achieve the expected purpose.

The location of shops is generally divided into three categories. The first category is the mature central business circle-the region with the most active economic activities. These areas are usually the most popular and dynamic, and have the greatest demand for leasing. The second category is the emerging business circle. These areas are mostly near large residential areas or employment centers (commercial office buildings or economic development zones that can absorb a large number of employed people), and the transportation, communication and infrastructure pipe networks are developed. The third category is the interior of residential quarters. There are all kinds of supporting facilities in the community, which is equivalent to increasing the amount and selectivity of resources that people can access. The latter two categories should be the investment focus of ordinary investors.

Employment centers provide demand markets for residential areas, and residential areas provide sufficient labor for employment centers, creating conditions for the rapid development of shops. The rise of shops will start the second prosperity of housing and employment, especially the quality and price of new buildings will be significantly improved, which will further increase the value of shops. However, if you invest in shops in the community, you need to be more cautious. On the one hand, the flow of people is restricted; On the other hand, residents spend only for convenience, and it is difficult to have sustained and large-scale consumption. Generally, shops in residential areas suitable for investment should be large enough, or open residential areas with spacious streets and roads.

2. Environment

The improvement of ecological, cultural and economic environment conditions will make real estate appreciate. The ecological environment depends on whether the climate of the community can be improved due to the change of green space. We should pay attention to the guiding role of urban planning and try to avoid choosing houses located in industrial areas. Every community has its own cultural background. The higher the cultural level of the community, the greater the value-added potential of real estate. The investment of shops depends on whether the surrounding business environment has formed a mature business circle. If so, there is no doubt about the appreciation of shops.

3. Building quality

Property with investment value must be durable. The more durable the property is, the more economical it will be for investors, and the more returns it will bring to investors. Durability is reflected in: First of all, the material of real estate should stand the test of time, if it is genuine. Second, the property manufacturing process should be fine. Third, the property equipment should be durable and efficient. Fourth, good property management is equivalent to the support system for the maintenance of fixed assets.

The second is to have suitability. To be suitable for people to live and use, the functional spatial layout of the property should conform to people's behavior habits. The degree of functional space and appliances should meet the requirements of human activity comfort. Good ventilation and lighting are needed to maintain the communication channel between man and nature, which is conducive to maintaining the good living conditions of users. It is necessary to introduce humanities or natural landscapes as much as possible to meet people's psychological needs such as security, detachment and superiority. Need a high level of intelligence.

The third is to be changeable. This means that there is room for people's behavior changes, indoor space is detachable, and the position of functional space can be adjusted and reorganized. This is a necessary condition for renting a property.

The fourth is to be ornamental. Must have aesthetic value, spirit and spirituality. The style and taste of the property are different. Among many styles, those that can form the main theme and be praised by most people are of investment value.

4. Property rights status

The property rights of houses and shops invested and purchased must be legal, effective and complete without any legal or economic disputes. It is necessary to find out whether there is a bank mortgage or other mortgage, and whether it has been rented. The term of property rights and the function of statutory houses are also very important. Although some houses are in good locations, the remaining period of land use is about to expire. Some houses are legally used for living, but they have been used as shopping malls when they are transferred, and they cannot be purchased as commercial houses when they are invested.

5. Value analysis

Investors should evaluate the current market value of the real estate to be purchased.

First of all, choose a real estate agent with good brand, good reputation and many customers. According to various factors of the house, the market price of the house at a specific time, place and environment is calculated, and different methods are selected according to the actual situation of the house. Finally, considering several different results, a price that is closest to the market and can best reflect the real value of real estate is obtained.

Invest in real estate transactions to earn future income. When investing in a real estate, it is particularly important to predict and judge the future market price trend.

Step 6 analyze

Most investments in real estate transactions are made when the market is in short supply. If the market is already in short supply, investors should be extra careful. At this time, we should consider two aspects: first, the price is very low, and there is a lot of room for appreciation in the future; The second is to make long-term investment, otherwise it will be easy to be quilted and will not be solved in the short term. In the analysis of real estate investment, the following changes in market supply and demand should be considered.

Third, the changing trend.

With the gradual transition of China's economic system and the introduction of a series of deposit-oriented economic policies, the risks of real estate investment generally show the following changes.