Shanghai senior high school entrance examination new deal comes out for 20 days: the heat of second-hand houses continues to cool down.

According to the latest data, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in Shanghai was around 39,000 units in March, which continued the peak transaction volume in February, only a few thousand units less than the 44,000 units in 65,438+10.

Compared with the high turnover of the second-hand housing market in Shanghai, the housing in the school district has cooled down. Like the logic of ordinary house price reduction, this round of school district housing price reduction also started from the outer ring. The school districts in Central and Inner Ring still have more guests and fewer rooms, but the price drop is also obvious.

Zhang Huan, who is in the anxiety of replacement, has a profound understanding of the market. Recently, because the favorite school districts are all reducing prices, she began to struggle whether to enter the market. In the second half of 2020, Shanghai's structural housing prices rose, mainly driven by school districts. According to incomplete statistics, in 2020, the growth rate of Shanghai school districts will generally reach more than 20%.

Zhang Huan had taken a fancy to the lakeside morning rhyme of Fangjing City, a school district located in Chunshen plate. The price peaked at 202 1 at 10.95 million yuan/square meter, and fell to 10.32 million yuan/square meter in March. The listing price of the community has dropped by 0.8% in the last week.

The price reduction of school districts can be traced. On March 16, the Shanghai Municipal Education Commission officially reiterated the "Senior High School Entrance Examination Reform" proposed in 20 18, including the quota allocation of key high schools in the region. As soon as the new policy of educational reform came out, the school district housing fell.

Lu Wenxi, an analyst of Shanghai Zhongyuan real estate market, believes that from the trend point of view, although there are many new houses in April, it will dilute the pressure on second-hand houses. According to the current listing of second-hand houses and the market performance of Xiaoyangchun in the past, it is still possible to touch 30,000 sets or even reach more than 30,000 sets in April. However, judging from the average price of online signing, it may show a downward trend.

The second-hand housing market continues to be hot, and the school districts have cooled down. In this regard, Lu Wenxi believes that there was market speculation in the school district before, and it is currently in the stage of value regression, which is in line with the origin of "housing and not speculating". At the same time, some insiders pointed out that the logic of parents buying school districts has changed. The new policy of educational reform has promoted the change of housing and second-hand housing pattern in Shanghai school district, which is reflected in the logic of population flow orientation.

School district housing in price reduction

Zhang Huan, who lives in Minhang District, Shanghai, sold a house at the end of last year, which happened to meet the soaring school district and failed to replace it.

One phenomenon is that the price of Chunshen plate in Minhang District of Shanghai rose by 50% last year due to the blessing of the school district. During the period from 65438+February to 20021in 2020, Zhang Huan held 6 million cash and watched the house price he was concerned about jump every week. As of 1, Shanghai offered a combination boxing of property market regulation; In mid-March, the education reform policy was also introduced. Zhang Huan's house purchase plan has also been shelved.

Zhang Huan previously optimistic about the housing, whether it is "old broken small" or a second new house, the price is lowered every week. On March 20th, after the owner perfected and put back the information, the total price of a set of houses in Morning Rhyme on the lakeside of Spring Shenjingcheng was reduced by 265,438+00,000. Since Zhang Huan paid attention to this property in early March, the total price has been reduced by 540,000.

Vanke's holiday scenery is in the same section, a large-sized house, which has decreased by about 165438+ 10,000 since the middle and late February.

Zhang Huan also noticed that after the introduction of the new education reform policy in mid-March, the number of school districts in Huangpu District and Jing 'an District was still small, but the prices were also lowered. For example, Jing 'an Jinghua Garden has only one house recently, and the unit price has dropped from about 220,000 yuan/square meter in early March to 6,543.8+0.7 million yuan/square meter in early April. This may reflect the changes and trends of school districts. On the premise of having to buy the school district house, Zhang Huan was caught in the anxiety of whether to change the plate.

In addition, the joint price increase between the intermediary and the landlord has not been eliminated. On April 7, Lin Yugang chose an intermediary to list exclusive houses and signed a gambling agreement. The listing price is 3 points higher than the latest transaction price in the same community. There are still many intermediaries willing to gamble with the landlord. The asking price ranges from 1 month to 5,000 yuan to 3 months to 1 ten thousand yuan.

Sales staff of some intermediary stores believe that the overall volume of second-hand houses in Shanghai is declining. Under the dual pressure of the property market regulation game period and the digestion period of the New Deal in the senior high school entrance examination, the landlords' mentality of some high-premium school districts has been much lower than before, and their houses have also been sold, but the price reduction is still in the exploratory stage. For example, in Weifang, Meiyuan and other sectors, the transaction price decreased slightly from the high of10.20 million yuan/square meter to1.10.00 million yuan/square meter. As LinYu said, "As soon as it rises, it will rise by 3 million, and as soon as it falls, it will drop by 300,000."

The logic of the school district has changed.

Zhang Huan's psychological changes fully reflect the impact of the rise and fall of school districts on the mentality of buyers. Many parents no longer insist on the school district of the first echelon, but settle for the second best and seek a school district with good schools and relatively good development prospects. On the one hand, there are financial considerations, on the other hand, the introduction of the new policy of education reform has changed parents' cognitive logic of school districts.

On the other hand, the lottery policy of private schools introduced by Shanghai 20 19 is a huge educational reform, which has increased parents' attention to primary school districts. The new policy of education reform introduced in mid-March this year has little marginal impact on public junior high school districts after 2020, and has little impact on the pattern of second-hand housing.

Many parents believe that the lottery policy of 20 19 private schools will have a certain impact on the decision-making of parents with children entering school in 2020. For example, many students who should have reported to the top schools, their parents choose to return to their counterpart public schools out of "avoiding uncertain risks".

It is worth mentioning that when the overall market of 20 18 fell, the housing price of Shanghai school district remained firm and its resilience was obvious. Parents' mentality of "guaranteeing the school district" led to the slow recovery of the Shanghai property market on 20 19, and the school district began to lead the rise; In April and May of 2020, the second-hand houses in Shanghai rose as a whole.

2 1 Some parents of students interviewed by the reporter of Century Business Herald believe that the school district before 20 19 is a "school district" or a "primary school district". A good primary school is actually for private junior high schools. Nowadays, Shanghai has once again emphasized the policy of "reform of senior high school entrance examination", and parents have begun to get rid of the concept of "primary school district housing" and look for "district housing", especially the nine-year school district housing. This is one of the reasons why Zhang Huan pays more attention to the housing price trend in the school district.

Therefore, the industry believes that the real school district of the first echelon has little impact on the second-hand housing market. Based on the comprehensive housing price data, many school districts that are rapidly rising in Shanghai in 2020 are not the first echelon schools in the true sense, but the school districts with population inflow, industrial support and other factors that are more favorable to the development of the district on the basis of good schools. This has also expanded the channel for the rapid rise of second-hand housing to a certain extent, while the school district housing has entered the cycle of value return.