China's Future Real Estate Development Prospect

Related information recommendation: Forward-looking Industry Research Institute 20 16-202 1 China Real Estate Industry Business Model Innovation Design and Investment Prospect Forecast Analysis Report.

Real Estate Development In the next 10 year, the real estate industry in China will further accelerate the transformation and development, some small and medium-sized housing enterprises will be eliminated, and the market concentration will be further improved. In the fierce competition, more real estate enterprises will gradually form their own core competitiveness in brand, capital, technology product research and development, project management and control, and develop high-quality, high-quality, low-cost, energy-saving and low-carbon commercial housing, and the real estate industry will continue to develop steadily.

One of the trends is that the profit rate of the real estate development industry is gradually decreasing and tends to a reasonable level.

In the past 10 years, real estate showed an upward trend. Due to housing reform, rapid GDP growth, loose monetary policy, rapid urbanization process and local governments' high dependence on land finance, the profit rate of the real estate industry has risen rapidly (no industry can bear the interest rate financing cost of more than 20% like the real estate industry), far exceeding the average profit level of other industries.

According to the data released by the Ministry of Land and Resources in October11May, the profit rate of real estate development in most cities in China is generally above 10%, and the average profit rate of middle and high-grade real estate is higher, generally reaching 30% ~ 40%. According to the data of China Academy of Social Sciences (housing green paper "China Housing Development Report (20 10-20 1 1)"), the average gross profit rate of China real estate industry is 55.72%, which is quite amazing compared with the internationally accepted 5% real estate profit rate.

With the gradual emergence of this round of adjustment effect, the possibility of obtaining high gross profit margin by land appreciation is getting smaller and smaller, and the benefits of enterprises will be mainly determined by their competitiveness, not just external resources. In the next 10 year, the profit level of the real estate industry will gradually return to the average profit level of all industries in the market, that is, between 8%- 10%, and the era of profiteering will no longer exist.

The second trend is to actively adopt new materials and technologies and vigorously develop green buildings.

Encouraging the application of new building energy-saving technologies and materials and vigorously developing green buildings are the focus of the country's next development. For example, new types of glass, such as insulating glass and heat radiation coated glass, are used to improve the thermal insulation and air tightness of building doors and windows; Apply high-quality new wall materials; Ground source heat pump technology using underground heat energy to keep indoor constant temperature; Develop and utilize solar energy technology according to local conditions. Recently, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued special documents to encourage the popularization and use of solar photovoltaic technology in public buildings and civil buildings, and further improve the application level of solar photovoltaic buildings. This year, the photovoltaic building application policy should be tilted towards green ecological urban areas and projects with high degree of integration. The green ecological urban area should aim at livability, green and low carbon, take the residential function as the core, and take the application ratio of renewable energy buildings such as solar photovoltaic power generation as the binding index. Green buildings should reach a certain proportion to achieve the overall goal of resource conservation and ecological environment protection.

In addition to encouraging policies (including tax relief granted by the finance and taxation departments), the state will also take compulsory measures to promote the development of green buildings. According to the requirements of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period, efforts will be made to fully support the development of green buildings. If pre-conditions are set in the "bidding, auction and hanging" of land, it is stipulated that it is not a green building that cannot bid; Large-scale construction and promotion of green buildings will enjoy priority; Set up special subsidies for green buildings. In the next five years, 300 ~ 500 buildings will pass the star-rated standard certification every year, and the goal of green building will be fully realized during the 13 th Five-Year Plan period.

The report shows that some brand real estate companies are at the forefront in implementing green building project certification, application of new materials and technologies, and integrated application of complete sets of technologies for building parts systems, and some achievements have been applied to actual projects. Judging from the projects that have passed the Samsung certification of green buildings and the LEED certification of the United States, although the construction cost has slightly increased (generally not more than 10%), with the popularization and publicity, the projects that have passed the green building certification have grown very fast, and the market has gradually understood and accepted them. Green buildings with low-carbon, energy-saving and environmental protection functions have begun to take root in people's hearts. For example, in 2009, Vanke formulated a development strategy to transform into a green building project and announced that it had

20 1 1 Starting from June 1, Vanke will increase its overall support for the development of green buildings during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period according to the requirements of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development. If pre-conditions are set in the "bidding, auction and hanging" of land, it is stipulated that it is not a green building that cannot bid; Large-scale construction and promotion of green buildings will enjoy priority; Set up special subsidies for green buildings. In the next five years, 300 ~ 500 buildings will pass the star-rated standard certification every year, and the goal of green building will be fully realized during the 13 th Five-Year Plan period.

At present, some brand real estate companies are at the forefront in the implementation of green building project certification, the application of new materials and new technologies, and the integrated application of complete sets of technologies for building parts systems, and some achievements have been applied to practical projects. Judging from the projects that have passed the Samsung certification of green buildings and the LEED certification of the United States, although the construction cost has slightly increased (generally not more than 10%), with the popularization and publicity, the projects that have passed the green building certification have grown very fast, and the market has gradually understood and accepted them. Green buildings with low-carbon, energy-saving and environmental protection functions have begun to take root in people's hearts. For example, in 2009, Vanke formulated a development strategy to transform into a green building project and announced that it had

20 1 1 Starting from June 1, all eligible construction projects of Vanke will be designed and constructed with reference to the standard of no less than one star for green buildings.

The third trend is that the real estate development model emphasizes professional segmentation and cooperation.

At present, most domestic real estate developers are often both investors and developers. In addition to self-financing, the source of funds for project development mainly depends on financing channels such as banks and purchase prices. Some developers also have their own design units, marketing companies, construction contracting teams and property management companies.

With the development of real estate, the division of labor and cooperation will be more detailed. From capital, development, planning, design, construction to sales, all links are made up of

Highly specialized companies undertake it alone. With a highly specialized division of labor and cooperation, all links will only fully demonstrate the advantages of only doing what they are best at. In the whole development and operation process, developers play the role of resource integration or comprehensive coordination, mainly relying on professional cooperation among investors, contractors and marketing agents.

In the future, the roles of investors and developers will be separated. In addition to banking channels, funds will also be widely introduced into social capital, including trust, private equity, corporate bonds and IPO listing. Real estate developers are more like a highly specialized management company. At present, the IPO and stock market financing of domestic housing enterprises are restricted by policies and are difficult to change in the short term. So private placement is the future development direction.

The fourth trend is to demand higher financing ability and capital operation ability.

Real estate development is a capital-intensive industry. In the current unfavorable environment of restricting purchases and loans, it is very important for housing enterprises to have good financing ability and capital operation ability. Real estate development should realize diversification of financing channels, reasonably control financial costs, and maintain a reasonable debt ratio and good cash flow.

According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, among the sources of funds for housing enterprises in China, the proportion of self-raised funds by enterprises has risen to more than 43%, the advance payment for individual housing has accounted for more than 25%, and the loan from commercial banks only accounts for about 15%. However, poor sales and poor market expectations have caused financial pressure on housing enterprises, forcing enterprises to find high-cost financing channels to fill the gap in capital demand.

In addition to the listed capital market and banking system, most domestic real estate development enterprises choose trust as the financing channel, and a few choose private lending. And some methods to expand overseas financing channels are worth learning. The initial financing was mainly aimed at a single project, and then gradually began to try to cooperate with mature overseas financial institutions in the form of corporate system. This change from loose project investment cooperation to corporate close investment is based on the strategic consideration of large-scale housing enterprises to further enlarge their scale and strengthen their strength. With the rapid expansion of the market scale, it is obviously not enough to rely solely on the strength of several housing enterprises. Diversified financing channels will help domestic housing enterprises. The standardized operation of investment management by mature overseas financial institutions and investment institutions will play an important role in improving the management level and quality of domestic housing enterprises.

The fifth trend is brand management, refined management and standardization.

In the risk of regulation and market, how to maintain the core competitiveness of housing enterprises and achieve stable and healthy development has become a prominent problem at present. It is expected that more housing enterprises will focus on brand, capital, products and marketing capabilities.

Brand management of real estate enterprises has always been regarded as the soft power of enterprises. In order to realize high profits and high added value of enterprises, we must pay attention to the cultivation and establishment of brands, the effective performance and publicity methods of brands, the demand research of buyers and the development and changes of the market. In practice, the brand management of many well-known real estate enterprises fully embodies the advantages of project promotion means and sales price.

In contrast, small and medium-sized housing enterprises lack the ability of project management and cost control, mature products, product positioning is relatively random, and the actual cost of the project deviates greatly from the target cost. We should pay more attention to the standardized and refined management of the project, which is also the basic condition for small and medium-sized housing enterprises to expand their business scale.

The sixth trend is that marketing has become the core and key link.

If the financing ability and capital operation ability of real estate enterprises play a decisive role, the marketing link is a crucial link to achieve profitability. Strong marketing ability can ultimately realize capital withdrawal and capital appreciation, at the same time, it can also improve the confidence of project investors, realize market expectations, and let the funds of housing enterprises enter a virtuous circle and continue to develop and operate.

At present, most domestic developers cooperate with professional marketing agencies, and real estate marketing agencies participate in the overall planning of the project, from apartment design to how to sell each house, to help developers finally achieve their sales goals. Some branded and large-scale real estate marketing agencies are also involved in the distribution of new houses because of their rich customer resources. By establishing various forms of customer meetings and holding various activities regularly, we can improve the utilization rate of customer resources, increase customers' loyalty to brand real estate enterprises and promote the prosperity of the marketing market.