The central bank included the commercial tickets of housing enterprises in the monitoring of "off-balance-sheet liabilities", and strong supervision came.

Commercial tickets, a huge and hidden pool of funds, are entering the regulatory field of vision.

According to Cailian News, the central bank has included the commercial ticket data of the "three red lines" pilot housing enterprises in its monitoring scope, requiring relevant housing enterprises to report the commercial ticket data every month. According to the news, the commercial ticket data of housing enterprises have not been included in the calculation index of "three red lines" at present, and it is very likely to be included in the future. If the commercial ticket data is included in the calculation of interest-bearing debt indicators in the "three red lines", the pressure on debt reduction of housing enterprises will further increase in the future.

For a long time, commercial paper has been excluded from the "three red lines" because it is not included in interest-bearing liabilities, which has become a magic weapon for housing enterprises to reduce the "three red lines" and its scale has also risen rapidly. The data shows that at the end of 2020, the scale of notes payable by the top 50 real estate enterprises was 40135 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.8%. Among them, China Resources, Greenland, Sunac and other real estate enterprises have the largest business ticket balance.

12 housing enterprises included in the first batch of "three red lines" pilot projects are Country Garden, Evergrande, Greenland, Sunac, Vanke, Zhongliang, China Resources, Xincheng, OCT, Sunshine City, Poly and China Shipping.

"If it is not included in the scope of supervision in time, it may lead to the promotion and out-of-control of the overall credit risk of the market, which may lead to macroeconomic operation risks. This is also the main reason why the central bank will include the commercial ticket data of the' three red lines' pilot housing enterprises in the monitoring scope and require relevant housing enterprises to report the commercial ticket data every month. In the future, the commercial ticket data of the entire housing enterprise may also be included in the' three red lines' calculation index. " Bai Wenxi, chief economist of IPG, told China Real Estate News.

It is a signal that commercial tickets are regulated. Next, the strong supervision curtain of "off-balance-sheet liabilities" of housing enterprises will be opened with high probability.

Dangerous commercial paper

Commercial paper financing refers to financing through commercial paper. Commercial paper is a commercial credit tool, which refers to the payment guarantee issued by the debtor to the creditor and promised to pay a certain amount within a certain period of time, that is, it consists of unsecured and transferable short-term promissory notes.

In the balance sheet, commercial bills are included in accounts payable and notes payable, which avoids the supervision of "three red lines" on interest-bearing liabilities. Therefore, since last year, housing enterprises with greater financial pressure and leverage reduction pressure have increased the issuance of commercial bills.

The research data of Huaxi Securities in 20 19 shows that the balance of notes payable of 60 sample real estate enterprises increased from 34.5 billion yuan at the end of 20 16 to 20134.3 billion yuan, a three-year increase.

In 2020, the scale of commercial bill acceptance of housing enterprises will increase by spurt. According to the data of Shanghai Bill Exchange, in 2020, the total acceptance balance of commercial bills of TOP 19 housing enterprises reached 335.574 billion yuan, an increase of 36.59% compared with 20 19, accounting for 9.27% of the total acceptance of commercial bills in China.

Among them, China Resources, Greenland and Sunac have the largest balance of commercial tickets, followed by Country Garden and Poly. Huaxia Happiness, Blu-ray and R&F in medium-sized housing enterprises are also skillfully used. Some low-ranking housing enterprises, such as Xiamen Jianfa, have a balance of more than 654.38 billion yuan.

Some analysts said that at present, about 80% of housing enterprises use commercial tickets in material procurement, labor expenditure, project payment and other aspects, which run through the whole real estate industry chain, from land bidding in the early stage to development and construction in the middle and late stage and real estate sales. Among them, there are material suppliers, construction companies and design companies in the upstream, and decoration companies, intermediary services and property service agencies in the downstream. Once the real estate enterprise refuses to pay the commercial ticket, it will bring joint losses.

Bai Wenxi said that the new rules of "three red lines" have greatly reduced the space for debt financing of housing enterprises, forcing housing enterprises to use their own credit to open a large number of commercial acceptance bills, carry out disguised debt financing in the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, and transfer the capital chain and operational risks of enterprises to related enterprises. The stock of commercial tickets of some enterprises has exceeded 200 billion yuan. If it is not included in the scope of supervision in time, it is likely to lead to the uncontrolled escalation of the overall credit risk in the market and lead to macroeconomic operation risks.

"The advantages of centralized procurement by developers are obvious, resulting in arrears of payment and service fees in upstream and downstream. This kind of arrears will accumulate to a certain extent, which will form social stability problems such as triangular debts, wages of migrant workers and construction site shutdown. Li, chief researcher of Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, told the reporter of China Real Estate News.

The risk began to be exposed.

The risks are being exposed. Since the beginning of this year, real estate enterprises such as Sunshine City, Tianye and COFCO have attracted attention due to the payment of commercial tickets.

First, Sunshine City. At the end of last year, there was news in the market that the company "refused to pay in batches". On June 4th this year, at 65438, Sunshine City announced voluntarily: "This commercial bill involves criminal cases. After research and decision by the management of the company, based on social responsibility, we will pay the commercial acceptance bill in full today, and then we will continue to promote the detection of criminal cases. "

At the beginning of May this year, some media reported that some related financing bonds issued by Field Real Estate Subsidiary from April to August last year refused to pay. In this regard, the real estate responded that the subsidiary issued an e-commerce acceptance bill to Shanxi Fuxingsheng from April to May 2020; Because Shanxi Fuxingsheng was suspected of fraud, the relevant payment was suspended.

On May 10, Jinan Ding Liang Real Estate, a subsidiary of COFCO Real Estate, issued a statement saying that Shandong Guo Mao, as the payee of commercial bills, circulated the commercial acceptance bills pledged by Jinan Ding Liang without authorization by forging false materials such as corporate acceptance guarantee and purchase and sale contracts for materials and equipment. In view of the rumor that "the commercial acceptance bills of 678 million yuan of Jinan Ding Liang Real Estate Company will expire one after another, and if you want to honor them, you will get a 20% discount", COFCO positively denied that the commercial acceptance bills that have expired have been accepted on time, and there is no discount or overdue.

Evergrande issued a statement in official website on June 7th in response to the failure to pay the commercial tickets. It said that in view of the fact that a few commercial bills were not paid in time by individual project companies, the Group attached great importance to and arranged payment. At present, the production and operation of the Group are all normal, and there has never been any overdue payment of loan interest or overdue repayment of principal since its establishment 25 years ago.

Strengthen the supervision of off-balance-sheet liabilities.

The hidden dangers of housing enterprises began from the downgrade of ratings.

According to the report released by Standard & Poor's Credit Review, although China real estate development enterprises have reduced their on-balance-sheet financial leverage due to regulatory requirements of "three red lines" to reduce the number of red lines, the overall leverage of the industry has been limited, and most housing enterprises prefer to increase their financial leverage within the consolidated scope by increasing minority shareholders' rights or moving real estate development projects outside the balance sheet.

In the stress test, Standard & Poor's reclassified minority shareholders' equity, which accounts for more than 30% of the total share capital, as short-term debt. As a result, nearly a quarter of developers are under pressure to downgrade their ratings.

In fact, after the regulatory authorities released the "three red lines" of financing in August last year, three monitoring tables were released in June 5438+ 10, namely, Statistical Monitoring Table of Major Business and Financial Indicators of Pilot Real Estate Enterprises (Table 1), Statistical Monitoring Table of Financing of Pilot Real Estate Enterprises (Table 2) and Off-balance-sheet Correlation of Pilot Real Estate Enterprises. These monitoring forms cover the "three red lines" monitoring indicators, requiring the pilot housing enterprises to fill in off-balance-sheet interest-bearing liabilities data such as non-consolidated residential real estate projects, stock real debt financing and supply chain asset securitization product financing, and submit them before 15 every month.

Li said that the "three red lines" are full of constraints on developers' leverage and the pressure of high debt. The three forms submitted by developers include the statistics and submission of full-caliber financing debts, and all disguised financing should be supervised and reduced.

However, in practice, due to its concealment, it is difficult to quantitatively and qualitatively judge "clearing stocks and real debts" from statements and operating data, and it is easy for enterprises to evade supervision and whitewash financial statements. "At present, the supervision of off-balance sheet liabilities mainly depends on the initiative of housing enterprises to submit three forms. It is expected that the active supervision of developers' full-caliber liabilities will become the focus. " Said to Li.