How to understand the duality of real estate prices in China?

As a special commodity, real estate has duality. The so-called duality of real estate refers to the material composition of real estate, namely land and houses. So real estate is a combination of real estate and real estate.

From this basic definition, it is not difficult to get the real estate price = real estate price+real estate price. To analyze these two price components, we must first make clear the current real estate situation in China. Different from the western countries where land is privatized, the real estate in China is the unity of ownership and use right. Most of the ownership and use rights of general commodities are unified, but land and houses are not. China implements public ownership and collective ownership of land. Land belongs to the state, and leasing is the only form of land market. This determines that the real estate price in China is essentially the sum of the land use right price and the house ownership price in a limited year.

Real estate is different from ordinary commodities. With the passage of time and the steady development of the country's political and economic situation, its value may show an upward trend. This is also the real estate appreciation that everyone is talking about at present. Of course, we all know that real estate may depreciate for other reasons. Because real estate is different from antiques after all, its collection value will definitely increase with time.

So what factors determine the appreciation or depreciation of real estate? In fact, the change of real estate value still depends on the change of land value and house value. Let's analyze the change of house value first. As a durable consumer product, the service life of a house is longer than that of ordinary goods, even much longer. However, the use value of the house as a consumable will one day tend to zero. For some houses with better building quality, this day may come in a decade or two. It is not difficult to find that the value of the house itself is decreasing. In other words, the value of the house will not appreciate. Because the house is depreciating until it reaches zero. The fundamental reason of real estate appreciation lies in the appreciation of real estate.

From the analysis of real estate, it is indestructible and sustainable, so there is no risk of land depreciation. Land will continue to appreciate with the improvement of the surrounding environment and the prosperity of the country's politics and economy. But it should be noted that this is suitable for land ownership. After the real estate is completed, the house and the land will each account for a corresponding proportion. With the passage of time, the proportion of housing value will continue to decline, and the proportion of land value will continue to rise. Until one day, the value of the house is zero, and then the value of the property is the value of the land. In western countries, land ownership will not depreciate; However, in China, land use rights must be devalued. When buying a real estate in China, what you actually buy is the ownership of the house and the land use right with a fixed term (up to 70 years). Suppose someone bought a house with a service life of 70 years with a cost of 300,000 yuan and a land cost of 700,000 yuan. For convenience, the time value of money is not considered here, so after 10 years, should the depreciation of 10 years be deducted from the value of land use rights? Some people may say that the surrounding environment of the property has been greatly improved in 10, and this land should be appreciated. This land has indeed appreciated, but its appreciation is reflected in the appreciation of land use rights in that year (specifically reflected in the annual rent increase). But at the same time, this land has indeed depreciated. Therefore, the value-added of this land should be

(Annual land use right appreciation? Remaining land service life)-(Average annual land use right depreciation? Length of service)

This is the value-added part of the land, and the value-added of the real estate should be deducted from the construction depreciation that has already occurred. It can be seen that when buying similar properties with similar prices in the same area, the longer the remaining land use right of the shopping industry, the more cost-effective. Land is indeed increasing in value, but property buyers may not benefit from it. Suppose the property has been used for 69 years, and the land value is 69 times that of the original purchase. Who will buy this house? Because in another year, the land use right will be taken back by the state, even if the land use right increases in value every year, it will inevitably encounter the result that the land use right will depreciate to zero. Some people may ask, even after 70 years, what should I do if the value of the house has not reached zero?

For residential buildings, the state should not forcibly relocate, after all, it will cause social unrest, which is not what the government wants to see. Judging from the current policy, local taxes should be levied, which is the cost for buyers to continue to use the land after the expiration. The basis of tax collection is probably the annual land use fee at that time. The more the land appreciates, the higher the annual land use fee. This will be very similar to the property tax that may be introduced in the future. I'm afraid not everyone wants to see real estate appreciate by then. After the expiration of the land use period, commercial real estate and its ancillary facilities will definitely be recovered by the state free of charge. As for the commercial and residential building, I don't know which way I will take. Maybe I will use a compromise.

Let's talk about land use right and land ownership first. In the west, because there is no depreciation of land ownership, its value-added calculation will be much simpler. Real estate appreciation = real estate appreciation-construction depreciation

So what is the relationship between land use right and land ownership? In fact, unlimited land use right is manifested as land ownership. Land use right is a kind of property right, which can be bought, sold, leased and mortgaged. The price of land use right is a certain economic price paid for obtaining land use right, and its essence is land rent. Marx pointed out that land price is the capitalization of land rent, and the capitalized land rent is manifested as land price. The formula is:

Land price = land rent (net land income)? Capital reduction rate v =

Net land income refers to the land income in the best use direction under normal circumstances.

The rate of capital reduction can be approximately regarded as the stable rate of return on investment at that time, such as the bank interest rate. Generally, R is higher than the bank interest rate, otherwise no investment is needed.

Because in the case of separation of land ownership and land use right, the economic relationship between land use right holder and land owner is land rent. The term of land use right can be long or short, and the form of paying land rent to land owners can be annual payment or one-time payment. For annual payment, the price of land use right for one year is the rent paid in that year; Once paid, the price of land use right in a certain period is the sum of land rent in a certain period calculated at present value. This is the income reduction method of land valuation.

Income reduction method, also known as income capitalization method, capitalizes the net income of land at a certain reduction rate, that is, the sum of future net income of land discounted at a certain discount rate. The formula is expressed as:

Assumption: A is the net land income at the end of the first year; (assuming that a remains the same)

R is the reduction interest rate;

Ri is the discounted value of the first year's net income;

V is the land price

So: r 1 = a? =

R2=R 1？ =

Rn=Rn- 1？ =

It is not difficult to see that this is a geometric series, the first term is, the common ratio is, and the sum of the series is. Obviously, when r is greater than 0, n tends to zero, so the sum of series is equal to. Suppose that the annual net income of a property is 10000 yuan, and the capital reduction rate is conservatively estimated at 5% (in fact, the rate of return is lower than this figure, why do you still invest in the property, and the loan interest rate also has this figure). So after 70 years, the real estate price should be

V70= = 19.34 (ten thousand yuan)

When n,

V= =20 (ten thousand yuan)

This time is reflected in the price of land ownership. In fact, the price gap between land use right and land ownership is not as far as we thought.

Taking this property as an example, the annual net income is still 65,438+00,000 yuan, and the expected annual rate of return is 65,438+00%. According to the calculation in 70 years, the real estate price should be

V70= =9.987 (ten thousand yuan)

As can be seen from the above, under the premise of constant annual income, the higher the expectation of investment return of buyers, the lower the price they are willing to pay. The key of the income reduction method is to determine the income reduction rate R (similar to the return on investment).

In addition to income reduction method, there are two main real estate valuation methods, namely, market comparison method and cost method. Market comparison method is to get the current market price of the property to be evaluated by comparing and analyzing recent transaction examples of similar real estate. The cost method is based on land cost+development cost+reasonable profit to get the real estate price. This is also the most basic way of operation. These three basic methods have their own advantages. The market comparison method can get the current market price of real estate quickly and conveniently, but it can't objectively and accurately reflect the value of real estate. When the whole real estate market is overvalued, the estimated price will be high; On the contrary, when the whole real estate market is undervalued, the estimated price will be low. The principle of income reduction method is to analyze the real estate price purely from the perspective of investment, and calculate the real estate price by determining the annual net income, expected return on investment and remaining land use years of real estate. This method can be used as an important price basis for rational real estate investors. For example, if you bought a house with a land use right of 70 years for 6,543.8+0,000 yuan (assuming that the depreciation of the house is zero and there is no mortgage after 70 years, and the expected return on investment is 5%), then according to the income reduction method, the annual net income of the property should be 5,654.38+0.7 million yuan. Investors can decide whether to invest by estimating the annual income of real estate. The cost method determines the real estate price completely from the perspective of the developer. Generally speaking, the price estimated by cost method is more acceptable to buyers and sellers. But the key to the problem is to ensure that the total cost of real estate is reasonable and there are not too many unnecessary costs. Some large real estate companies have better control in this respect, while those newly established small real estate companies are similar in this respect.

At present, the real estate market in China is generally developing healthily, but there are also some professional speculators who specialize in real estate speculation to earn the price difference. In order to maintain the prosperity of the real estate market and curb speculators' speculation, the central government, local governments and major banks have introduced some policies to regulate the real estate industry and prevent overheating. However, these policies are often much cry and little rain, with little effect. For example, increasing the down payment ratio will increase the cost of real estate speculators. How many people are real speculators who borrow money for real estate speculation? Increasing the down payment ratio not only raises the threshold for real buyers, but also removes a group of retail speculators, further clearing the way for big speculators. For another example, the number of housing units is treated differently, and the first, second and third sets are subject to different mortgage policies. You can imagine how difficult it is to implement this policy. How to distinguish? A family of three can buy three sets. In addition, how many big investors are borrowing real estate? Another example is that the auction is limited. Can the limited transfer of auction house prevent speculators from speculating in real estate, or temporarily reduce a number of saleable houses to make the houses more tense?

In fact, the government is also in a dilemma. On the one hand, the government should curb the further expansion of speculative risks and prevent bubbles; On the other hand, the government can't introduce too strict policies to cause the rapid decline of real estate prices. Once this happens in the real estate market, it will not only bring losses to the majority of buyers (to be honest, the rise and fall of house prices have little effect on home-occupied buyers, but only some psychological effects), it will bring fatal blows to all investors, and it will also bring a lot of non-performing loans to banks. The decline of real estate has little impact on developers, because most real estate enterprises are highly indebted, and the debt ratio is often as high as 70%. To put it bluntly, real estate enterprises mostly carry rice in empty sacks (but this is a high investment). Once there is a problem in the market, these real estate enterprises can declare bankruptcy and legally transfer most of their losses to banks.

At present, there are three main types of real estate speculators: rich, powerful and well-connected. These people can buy real estate at a lower price through various channels, and then resell it to real buyers at a higher price. What's more, speculators find their next home before buying. This is a good deal without risk. This also explains a phenomenon to some extent: it is difficult for some real buyers to buy a house from the sales office, and there are plenty of real estate agents near the sales office. It is not the intermediary who has the ability, but the person who has the ability to find the intermediary. Even some buildings don't even have sales offices, so the houses are sold out, and the sales staff just do some after-sales things. It is unreasonable and unrealistic to rely solely on policies to prevent people from using money, rights and relationships.

For the long-term healthy development of the real estate market, the government should encourage the purchase of houses for personal use or investment, and crack down on all kinds of real estate speculation. To effectively distinguish between investors and speculators, we must not cut across the board, otherwise the blow will be too wide. To solve this problem, we must understand the essence of real estate speculation. Real estate speculation is actually very simple. Speculators buy at low prices through various channels and then sell at high prices. For example, employees of real estate enterprises buy houses at internal prices, which is natural and understandable. But the key is to distinguish whether he lives in his own house or sells his own house. Speculators can get cheaper real estate in different ways, but they can only speculate by selling houses. Since there is no effective means to prevent speculators from buying real estate, the government can take very effective measures to crack down on speculative selling. The essence of real estate speculation lies in the rapid "value-added" price difference, and the government can introduce relevant policies to strictly control this price difference. For example, if an individual resells a property within one year, he will be charged 100% personal property income tax on his value-added income. Of course, this value-added income should be deducted from the tax on the last transaction. In the second year, 90% personal real estate income tax will be levied on its value-added income. By analogy, the value-added income tax is zero after the tenth year. Because speculators don't wait ten years. Besides, it can be added after ten years, and we must admire the investors' eyes. If the government can introduce similar policies, it will be a great good news for the real estate market in the long run. Real property buyers will not be affected by this policy, and speculators will naturally give up real estate speculation if they are unprofitable, thus gradually squeezing out the bubble in the real estate market. Moreover, the policy is easy to implement, and the government only needs to establish a fair, clean, transparent and open real estate trading market. I wonder how long it will be before this day comes.