Kunming wealth real estate

In the past two years, it is obvious that real estate is different from that before 20 19. After the epidemic, some people think that house prices will continue to fall, and some people think that the current property market is bottoming out. The former conclusion is mainly based on the large base and market value of houses in China. It is roughly estimated that the current house is enough for 3 billion people to live in, and its market value can be compared with the sum of the real estate market values of the European Union, the United States and Japan. The latter's conclusion is mainly based on the fact that compared with two years ago, the price increase is limited, and even some properties have fallen because of the withdrawal of funds, which is the best time to buy a house. So, if you buy a house now, will it be "wealth" or "burden" in ten years?

If we take 10 year as a cycle, we believe that the house is wealth. Around 2000, the average price of new commercial housing in cities and towns in China was about 2 1 12 yuan/square meter, reaching about 4,727 yuan/square meter in 20 10 and 9,600 yuan/square meter in 2020. The average annual increase in ten years is 10%, which is much higher than the inflation rate of that year. In this case, the house is undoubtedly a fortune, and all the high-quality assets can double the house price within five years. However, with the rapid construction of housing, the new supply speed of real estate began to exceed the demand speed, and the housing prices in some cities began to slow down or even show signs of retrogression. According to the statistics of China Real Estate Data Research Institute, the data of "20021June 70 Cities" shows that Guiyang, Shijiazhuang, Dali, Kunming and other cities did not increase last month, which means that the houses bought in these cities last month will begin to shrink to varying degrees next month. Of course, a month or two of falling house prices does not represent the fate of the house in the next 10 year. Here we might as well take a look at them first.

As we all know, the development of real estate in the past could not be separated from strong financial support. Whether it is real estate development loans or personal housing loans, there will be a continuous influx of funds into real estate before 2020. Until the beginning of 20021,the central bank and the China Banking Regulatory Commission jointly issued the Notice on Establishing a Centralized Management System for Real Estate Loans of Banking Financial Institutions. Real estate loans and personal housing loans began to stipulate that five-tier banks were not allowed to exceed the loan funds to enter the property market, clearly indicating that funds were not allowed to enter the property market.

In addition, the supervision of illegal inflow of funds into real estate is also escalating. On July 27th, CBRC held a system-wide mid-year symposium and a symposium on discipline inspection and supervision (video call). The meeting clearly pointed out that it is necessary to prevent bank insurance funds from flowing into the real estate market in violation of regulations, such as mortgage loans, business loans, credit loans, policy loans and other forms of loans, which eventually flow into houses after circulating among relatives and friends.

Recently, an article published by China Economic Net entitled "Insist on" housing without speculation ",focusing on" security "and" stability "said that in order to truly achieve" housing without speculation ",highlight housing livelihood and avoid using real estate as a short-term means to stimulate the economy, we need to start from the two directions of" security "and" stability "of real estate to" guarantee "affordable housing.

The words "guarantee" and "stability" are not just words. In the first half of the year, the first and second batches of investment in affordable housing projects have been issued, with a total investment of about 7192 million yuan. At the same time, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development held 40 urban forums in two batches, clearly stating that 92 1 will be built in these 40 cities in 2026. According to the calculation of an average of 2,000 sets in a residential area, it is equivalent to building 465 affordable residential areas, and so is the "stable" commercial housing. We should start with land, finance and policy to ensure that the development of the real estate market is in a healthy and sustainable development process.

Judging from the development trends of the above two real estate markets, it is certain that the fluctuation of house prices in the future will not be too great. There is a famous theory about real estate: finance in the short term, land in the medium term and population in the long term. These three factors directly affect the changes of real estate, and the effect on the rapid development of real estate will not be so obvious. First, the financial port will be tightened, which does not rule out that the second-hand housing loan policy will continue to tighten in the future, that is, the ability to invest in real estate in the future will be weak. Secondly, the land market will no longer sell as well as before, and land auctions will happen from time to time. In the future, more land will flow into the market and increase the supply of real estate, so the supply of houses will be sufficient and the seller's market will turn to the buyer's market. The relationship between supply and demand will make it difficult for real estate to achieve regional monopoly; Finally, the demographic dividend of real estate has weakened. As can be seen from the recent three-child policy, the house has become the main factor affecting the family fertility rate. Having children is to make way for buying a house. It is difficult to greatly increase the population growth rate without controlling the increase in house prices.

As for whether buying a house will become a "burden" ten years later, the key lies in whether the income growth can outperform the mortgage interest, and whether the property appreciation can be higher than the tax expenditure, especially in the property tax. In the Tenth Five-Year Plan, it is clearly mentioned that the real estate tax legislation will be promoted, the local tax system will be improved and the local tax management authority will be gradually expanded during the Tenth Five-Year Plan. That is to say, in the next five years, the property tax will be fully popularized, so once the property tax comes, the original property with investment attributes will gradually become consumer goods, and the property fees and property taxes faced by multiple suites may also become the burden of families, especially when the house can't afford to rent or rent out, the house will also face the "dilemma" of depreciation.

The famous economist Ren Zeping is explaining "What is the general trend?" At that time, the once-in-a-century great change is also a once-in-a-century great opportunity. Reduce the profits and monopoly of real estate, and vigorously develop manufacturing, hard technology, real economy, new energy and capital markets. The cross of "reducing the profit and monopoly of real estate" just reflects a big trend of real estate in the future, that is, the position of real estate in the next economic market will be replaced by other industries and markets. In other words, the value of the replaced real estate wealth will also decrease. It is not in line with the current economic trend to expect to make a fortune by buying a house. The wealth attribute of a house tends to preserve value rather than increase value quickly. On the contrary, in cities with higher housing income or cities with lower rental and sales, due to the high price of the house itself, in the case of mortgage, it will be very difficult to repay the mortgage once the income fluctuates, and it is not excluded that the house will become a "burden" for the family.