Yuzhong Dongli property

Buying a house depends on the location. This argument has been heated by Lao Li in Hong Kong, which has almost become the common sense of buying a house in the property market and ruined a street.

But the next words, Xiaoguang did not say.

Because everyone knows that it is a school district house, a subway house, a large merchant next door, or a brand developer, this kind of house is bound to be expensive, especially in cities with higher energy levels, and buyers are not short of money.

However, for ordinary people, it is obviously difficult to do so. If you have enough ability, you can only choose two or three indicators from traffic, school, business and developers, and ordinary people can only have one indicator.

Of course, it can't even compare with an indicator. This kind of house is purely self-occupied, which can't keep up with the overall price increase, let alone the investment value.

Then the problem is coming. If the ability is limited, only one of the four elements can be selected. Which is wiser to choose first? The price increase is also the most impressive?

Today, on this topic, Zi Mu tells you about her many years of research experience.

The school district is king.

Because the school district housing is the most concerned factor, so I will talk about this part in detail.

First of all, the impact of the school district on the value of the house does not care about the house itself.

Because in a sense, the value of the school district house is more reflected in the educational resources and growth circle, and the house is just an accessory. This concept has become the common sense of the people and has penetrated into the bone marrow.

So we saw a shabby little house with no toilet in Xicheng District of Beijing, which sold for 65,438+10,000/m2. More than 30 square meters of old houses in the 1980s in Nanjing, the local middle class queued up to buy them overnight. ...

You may not believe that a school can even save a local property.

The other day, an old friend told me. It's hard to imagine that the house price in Ordos city has gone up again, which is very hot.

People in Ordos should have heard of it. Previously, because of the prosperity of coal economy, per capita GDP once surpassed Hong Kong. The Kangbashi New District, which had invested a lot of money, made the front page of foreign magazines. The streets are full of overbearing Mercedes-Benz Land Rover, and the news of washing the road with mineral water is also reported.

Night view of Kangbashi New District

After 20 10 years, local house prices once soared to more than 10000 yuan/square meter. At that time, most second-tier cities in China only had 6-8,000 yuan/square meter.

However, in the end, Ordos was blocked because of the coal outlet, and the private lending chain broke, and a local financial crisis broke out.

Ghost Town kangbashi

Overnight, the economy collapsed and capital fled. In Kangbashi New District, which suffered the most, the house price dropped from 65,438+10,000 yuan per square meter to 3,000 yuan per square meter, and all foreigners disappeared overnight, becoming the most famous "ghost town" in China.

However, the local government made a brilliant move, that is, in order to build a new district, all the best resources in the city were moved into the new district, especially the best school "Meng No.1 Middle School".

Meng No.1 Middle School scored well in the college entrance examination. Families from all over the city and other places must buy houses nearby if they want to study. In this way, housing prices have been supported and educational resources have formed a positive cycle.

Energy level differentiation

Of course, compared with the influence of educational resources in third-and fourth-tier cities on the region, cities with higher energy levels are manifested in different buildings in the same region.

For example, in Shenzhen, due to the long-term implementation of the policy of "integral admission, nearest admission", the most famous Baihua area and its surrounding areas have formed a price difference between heaven and earth.

The house price of Shenzhen Baihua Garden is159,000/m2, while the house price of Yuanlongyuan Community, which is 300 meters away, is104,000/m2. The price difference between the two communities is 60,000/square meter, which is 6 million according to a set of 100 square meter apartment.

800 meters away, the unit price difference is as high as 65438+ 10,000/m2, which is far from the price of a villa in a second-tier city.

In recent years, the appreciation and resilience of school districts are obvious to all. According to the statistics of Tencent's financial data, the difference between the increase of school districts and non-school districts is 27%, and with the passage of time, the numerical trend becomes more and more obvious.

Therefore, it is not too much to say that the extreme value of housing prices in a city is mainly composed of school districts. However, in terms of the impact of school district housing on housing prices, I want to say two things.

1. Education can be driven by industry and has extensibility.

2. The policy of education is risky.

What do you mean?

School district trend

There are two main factors that determine the quality of the school district: one is a special-grade teacher and the other is an excellent student. In a sense, the quality of students can incite the value of the whole school district.

Take Haidian in Beijing as an example. Haidian District is blessed by eight universities in Qingbei. The house here is born to be the dream of parents all over the country, and the price of 65438+ 10,000 yuan/square meter is everywhere.

The export of talents from eight universities has created the brilliance of Haidian and attracted the influx of highly educated elites from all over the country. The elite has a strong awareness of children's education and a good foundation for children's education. The quality of students in Haidian District and the enrollment rate of prestigious schools soared, which started a virtuous circle.

Later, the high-quality industry in Haidian District of Beijing moved northward, and big-name companies such as Ali, Tencent and Baidu joined hands to create a new industrial polar region. Because of the generous salary, highly educated families are also moving north, and high-quality students even turn the barren land in the north into a school district.

This is an extension of the industry-driven school district.

The policy of education is very risky. What does this mean? For example.

Before, because this suite was a school district, you can rest assured even if it is a dilapidated old house, because many people will take over this house in the future.

However, one day, someone told you that this house can't go to a good school nearby, and the value of your house will disappear overnight, which is equivalent to meeting a black swan.

In the past, school districts existed because we have been implementing the policy of "enrolling in the nearest school", but in recent years, in order to get rid of the behemoth of "sky-high school districts", China began to advocate "education equalization".

Especially some time ago, after the education reform in Xicheng District of Beijing and the implementation of multi-school scribing, the process of education equalization in China has obviously accelerated.

There may still be many people who don't understand "multi-school scribing". Popularize science here.

Multi-school scribing refers to a community corresponding to multiple schools.

Multi-school scribing will disperse hot primary schools and junior high schools to all districts to ensure that all districts are roughly balanced. In the specific operation, multi-school dicing is implemented, and the enrollment places of hot schools are allocated by random allocation. Students who are not assigned to hot schools should still be assigned to other schools nearby.

Just last year, the Ministry of Education also "named" the names of 24 cities, requiring all counties and cities in these cities 1 0,000% of public primary schools and 90% of public junior high schools to graduate.

These 24 cities are: Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Chongqing, Shenyang, Dalian, Changchun, Harbin, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Xiamen, Jinan, Qingdao, Wuhan, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chengdu, Xi 'an, Fuzhou, Nanchang, Zhengzhou, Changsha and Guiyang.

Therefore, if you buy a school district house, not only to let children study hard at school, but also to benefit from the appreciation of the house, you will bear the policy risk, betting that when your house is sold after the children finish reading, the "multi-school dicing" policy has not been implemented in the area where your city is located.

But Zimu can tell you a rule, because the school district housing is deeply connected with the interest chain and full of black-box operation, so this reform is doomed to be a long process.

Taking Beijing as an example, it was first put forward in 20 15, and the concept was put forward at the press conference of educational planning outline held by the Ministry of Education. It was promoted in 20 18, and it was not until 2020 that Xicheng District implemented the multi-school dicing policy.

The lower the energy level, the lower the execution efficiency, especially in third-and fourth-tier cities.

Subway wealth

Compared with the school district, the value of the subway house is more stable, because the education policy can be changed, but the position of the subway platform is almost impossible to change. I haven't seen such an example so far.

In recent years, "when the subway rings, there are two thousand pieces of gold" has also become common sense, indicating that everyone is gradually affirming the value of subway commuting.

The optimal distance between subway houses has always been controversial, but I agree with the answer given by the Shanghai Statistics Department.

A house within 5 minutes' walk from the subway station is called a "positive subway house"; /kloc-become a "quasi-subway house" within 0/0 minutes; /kloc-within 0/5 minutes, it is called "near the subway house".

In fact, in my eyes, the distance of 15 minutes is also very embarrassing. Walking is too tired and taking a taxi is more wasteful. So 10 minutes is just right.

So how big is the difference between subway houses and non-local housing prices?

Take the neighborhood next to Panjiayuan subway station in Beijing as an example. The house price of Songyu Dongli, a community in the 1990s next to the West Gate Station of Beijing University of Technology, is 59,000 yuan/square meter, while the house price of Shuanglong Li Nan, a contemporary community, which is 1.3 kilometers away (15 minute walk), is 55,000 yuan/square meter, with a difference of 4,000 yuan/square meter.

Farther away, the price of Hongyan Road Community, 2 kilometers away, is 52,000 yuan/square meter, which is declining.

I can find such examples everywhere. Generally speaking, the difference between subway houses and non-subway houses is generally between 5% and 20%. Moreover, every time the house price tide comes, the house price of the subway house must take precedence over that of the non-subway house, and every time it is adjusted back, the subway house also shows corresponding resilience.

Of course, the value of the subway is also closely related to the urban energy level.

In most cities I have been to, I found that the higher the energy level, the higher the value of subway houses, and the lower the energy level, the less obvious the value of subway houses.

It's not hard to understand.

Take Hohhot as an example. There are always two subways in a city, and the urban built-up area is limited. The main traffic in the city still depends on buses and private cars, and the utilization rate of subways is average, and the value of subway houses is not as great as expected.

Enterprises and developers

Business and developers, because there are few details, are put together.

Business lies in the convenience of life, whether it is shopping or shopping and entertainment, it is the improvement of happiness index. But business is also divided into large commercial complexes and small enterprises.

For example, Wanda, Vientiane City, COCO Park, Henglong, Huamao and other large shopping malls, this format has a particularly obvious driving effect on the surrounding housing prices.

Shenzhen Vientiane City

Mainly because large-scale businesses can gather population, which will promote the formation of business districts and create more employment opportunities. More people are employed, so the demand for surrounding houses will increase, and the surrounding house prices will have sufficient potential for rising.

Sometimes business and subway overlap, because the subway station has a large flow of people, so the government will put business near the subway entrance when planning land use. So you often see that subway houses are also "commercial houses".

But if these two factors are separated, it depends on the energy level of the city and whether the business in your city is developed.

Business is the destination, and the subway is just one of the means to reach the destination.

For first-and second-tier cities with higher energy levels, subway commuting is more important and can reach many destinations, so the value of subway is better than business;

In third-and fourth-tier cities, due to the lack of commercial facilities in most cities, the scarcity of commercial resources is prominent, and the whereabouts of subways are limited, and the commercial value will be more prominent than that of subways.

Finally, the developer, the developer's influence on the value of the house is fatal, mainly in the quality of the house and the operation of the future property, which determines the life cycle of this community.

These years have not been taken seriously by people because what everyone was most concerned about before was how much the house could rise, and the location was everything; Not how the house itself affects life.

Identifying developers is a big problem in the real estate market. I wrote in an article "A rainstorm taught me to buy a house" before. You can have a look if you are interested.

The impact on housing prices is also divided into urban energy levels. In first-and second-tier cities, the brand power of developers is not much different, and house prices are mainly concentrated in the quality of lots and houses; In third-and fourth-tier cities, because there are fewer brand developers, it has become an independent scarce resource.

For example, Country Garden and Evergrande became the extremes of many third-and fourth-tier cities in the last wave of property market tide, and also became the favorite and most "identity-revealing" property of local local tyrants.

The greatest truth is the simplest.

In fact, if you read each part carefully, you will find that I have interspersed the research results between the lines, but in order to be more intuitive, I will finally make a comprehensive summary.

First of all, the four elements focus on the energy level of the city. The higher the energy level, the scarcer the resources, and the value of the school district is more prominent than that of the subway. However, there are policy risks in the value of school districts. Everyone must take this into consideration and don't plant pits. Then there are merchants and developers.

The lower the energy level, the more valuable the school district house is than the subway, and the policy risk it bears is relatively small. In cities or regions with extremely underdeveloped economy and population outflow, I can even tell you firmly that the real estate value of such cities is only concentrated in school districts.

Secondly, the lower the energy level, the scarce large-scale business will become the main value end of the place, even exceeding the transportation value such as subway. Developers are still at the bottom.

In short, if the funds are abundant, the four factors of buying a house must be taken into account. Such real estate definitely exceeds the city's average increase, and sometimes it can even double the effect; If it is weak, the four factors should account for one, and the price increase can at least keep up with the average increase.

Thirdly, if there are no four factors, first-and second-tier cities can still benefit from market purchasing power and location value. In addition, cities with lower energy levels, such four-motionless houses, have only residential value.