Cao Jianhai's real estate market

Various facts show that the real estate market since March 2009 has repeated the upward trend in 2007. Because history rarely repeats itself, speculators are even crazier, and the momentum of the property market is surpassing that of 2007. So, will history repeat itself?

In order to control the pace, the China government will inevitably implement the "slow braking" policy, and large-scale credit, especially illegal credit, will be greatly restricted, and the rising asset market will be controlled.

On the other hand, if the central government thinks that the economic growth has not reached the expected target and further relaxes the upper limit of the monetary policy target set in early 2009, it will be difficult to curb the rise of house prices this year, and house prices will turn around and fall by 20 10 in March and April.

China property market once again entered a period of rapid rise. Statistics show that nearly 50 properties were sold in Beijing in June, and the current price is the highest in its history. From the first quarter of 2009 to June, the prices of most properties rose by more than 20%. At the same time, the land market is heating up rapidly, the bidding, auction and auction market is facing fierce competition, and developers are desperately taking land, resulting in a crazier bubble than in 2007. Of all the rescue policies, the credit policy is undoubtedly the most important. The rescue policies include tax policies and credit policies, as well as public policies implemented by local governments such as "tax refund for purchasing houses" and "providing for the elderly with houses". However, what really contributes to the short-term recovery of the property market is the credit policy.

Since the beginning of this year, new credit has grown rapidly. From June 5438 to May, new loans have reached 5.83 trillion, and it is estimated that new loans may exceed 6.5 trillion in the first half of the year. There are indications that the evidence of large-scale capital flow to the real estate market is very obvious, which is not only manifested in the fact that real estate developers lure more consumers into the real estate industry through bluff sales, but also in the fact that a large number of industrial and commercial capital and credit funds enter the real estate industry through high-interest loans. More importantly, the central bank and the China Banking Regulatory Commission encourage the expansion of consumer credit, which fundamentally solves the capital chain problem that plagues the whole real estate industry.

In the loose monetary policy environment, in order to achieve the goal of expanding domestic demand and "ensuring growth", the central bank and the China Banking Regulatory Commission jointly issued the Guiding Opinions of China Banking Regulatory Commission of the People's Bank of China on Further Strengthening the Adjustment of Credit Structure to Promote the Stable and Rapid Development of the National Economy on March 18, 2009, proposing to encourage the development of consumer credit and do a good job in the consumer credit market. Focus on promoting credit consumption in industries closely related to people's livelihood, such as automobiles, housing, home appliances, education and tourism. Support qualified places to set up consumer finance companies on a pilot basis; Implement the real estate credit policy to support the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. Actively support affordable housing construction projects such as low-rent housing and affordable housing that meet the loan conditions. Support real estate enterprises with good credit status to issue corporate bonds, carry out pilot projects of real estate investment trust funds, and broaden financing channels for real estate enterprises. Increase credit support for self-occupied and improved housing consumption, and encourage ordinary commodity housing consumption.

According to the data recently released by the Shanghai headquarters of the central bank, the personal housing loans of Chinese banks in Shanghai increased by 7.87 billion yuan in May, the highest monthly increase in the past four years, an increase of 660 million yuan year-on-year and an increase of 4.48 billion yuan over the previous month. Among them, new housing loans amounted to 4.57 billion yuan and second-hand housing loans increased by 3.3 billion yuan. According to the information published by many cities, with the substantial increase of monthly housing loans since March, housing loans have become the pillar business of many commercial banks.

Such a policy has naturally greatly boosted investors' confidence in the real estate industry. Since April this year, real estate stocks and banking stocks have interacted in turn in the stock market, and real estate stocks have become the "protagonists" of this round of stock market. From the "fake mortgage" during the credit crunch, to the sales data fraud and check-out tide during the early spring, and then to the influx of speculators in May and June, the real estate market finally realized the long-awaited "reversal" trend of the central and local governments and once again embarked on the right track. However, under the background of oversupply of housing, limited income growth of residents and long-term bearish economy, the upward trend of real estate prices is doomed to be unsustainable, and there will be a sharp drop after the surge, which is independent of anyone's will. At the same time of large-scale credit supply, a large amount of funds entered the stock market and real estate market with serious shortage of funds, which promoted the rapid rise of asset market prices. According to the statistics of CICC, as of June 25th this year, the dynamic P/E ratios of Shenzhen Component Index and Shanghai Composite Index were 26.2 times and 2 1.65 and 438+0 times respectively, ranking among the top in the world. However, the housing market rose again when the price adjustment was extremely inadequate, which basically blocked the channels for ordinary consumers to buy houses and expand consumption, and quickly became a paradise for speculators. From the above analysis, we can basically judge that China's stock market and housing market will turn for the better after a limited period of speculation because they are divorced from the real economy and the actual payment level of households, and a large amount of funds may flood into the means of production and consumption for speculation, thus driving the price of physical products to soar and triggering hyperinflation. Inflation will inevitably hit the domestic real economy in the recession cycle, and will inevitably force the economy into long-term stagflation, even financial crisis and economic crisis. This is an inevitable law that is independent of human will.

Then, under the strong inflation expectation, is real estate the first choice for residents to invest in hedging? I don't think so! The reason is that the existing house price in large and medium-sized cities exceeds the real cost by nearly 10 times, which overdraws the room for future growth and makes investment in housing worthless. Measured by the growth of money supply, the M2 of China's broad money supply in 2009 is estimated to be 55.2 trillion yuan, which is about 2.5 times that of M222. 1 trillion yuan in 2003. At present, the price of commercial housing in large and medium-sized cities is about 3-5 times that of 2003. Even if the total housing supply remains unchanged for six years, the rate of house price increase has far exceeded the growth rate of money supply, and there is no room for growth; In terms of per capita housing area, the per capita housing area in China was 23.7 square meters in 2003 and will exceed 30 square meters in 2009, which is the increase of per capita housing area in the process of rapid urbanization. If we consider that about 200 million migrant workers temporarily living in cities cannot participate in the existing housing market, the existing huge housing stock is still in the hands of urban residents with higher incomes; Judging from the relationship between supply and demand, due to high housing prices, the urban housing surplus in China has become very serious. It is estimated that at least 65,438+00% of urban housing in China is vacant. This situation determines that the future house price will run below the actual price level for a long time, and there is no hedging function at all. As long as there is a return of 30%, some people are willing to take risks; If you have 300% income, the income of real estate speculation is enough to make people forget the pain of falling into it in 2008. At present, the central government is trying its best to rescue the market, banks are relaxing the approval of large-scale mortgage loans, real estate developers are shaking their tongues to raise prices, and consumers are scared to snap up money. Such a golden opportunity, bloodthirsty real estate developers and speculators will not miss it!

Under the current policy conditions, in Beijing, a qualified property buyer can buy as many sets of houses with down payment and preferential interest rate as he wants as long as he can pay a 20% down payment. According to CCTV's "Economic Half-hour" report, a property buyer used the policy loopholes of existing commercial banks to compete for customers, and bought 35 houses by himself, which has become the mainstream of current property market purchase. In Shenzhen, the "zero down payment" and "10% down payment" used in 2007 reappeared in the property market. Because the bank's review of loans is very loose, the task of commercial banks' mortgage is aggravated, and a large number of yin-yang contracts appear, which leads to the flood of down payment reduction again. With the "boom" of the first-tier property market in various places, especially the first-tier property market, more and more speculators are active again. These speculators are willing to pay down 10% or even lower, and "make a fortune" through high leverage ratio in order to make a profit when house prices rise. For big speculators, intermediaries are also actively attracting to expand their business scale. At present, intermediaries generally cooperate with mortgage appraisal companies to raise the appraisal price of real estate, making it a "yin-yang contract", and even use the difference between the higher appraisal price of banks and the lower purchase price of sellers to achieve "zero down payment" for buyers.

Under the condition of "zero down payment" and low down payment, it is not so much speculators buying houses as banks buying houses through housing credit, which is the fundamental reason for the rapid rise of this round of housing prices. For speculators, the so-called "buying a house" is just a deceptive "document project" operation. As for housing decoration, household appliances, water heating and electricity, commercial services and other consumption. , don't consider. If the "self-esteem" of developers is taken into account without considering the start of new projects, and speculators who buy houses only resell by hoarding a large number of vacant houses, then this round of property market prosperity will not only promote the national economic growth in the slightest, but also bring social panic and economic chaos, and domestic banks-ordinary people-dragged down by developers and speculators will once again become real victims.

If house prices can keep rising, speculators will have the opportunity to sell their houses to real consumers, and speculators and banks will have the opportunity to avoid losses; Once house prices fall, speculators will generally choose to "cut off supply" or even flee, leaving banks with a large number of housing assets that depreciate day by day, so a large-scale bank credit crisis will naturally be inevitable. Because the housing price is far from the income and payment level of urban and rural residents, if this situation is allowed to continue, the nationwide housing market crash will surely occur. It can be said that at present, China has entered the high-speed channel of "Chinese subprime mortgage crisis". The only correct choice is to severely crack down on all kinds of illegal and illegal fraudulent behaviors of bank insiders, developers and real estate speculators, shrink the scale of mortgage loans under the condition of high housing prices, and prevent the outbreak of credit risks caused by high housing prices. In China's real estate industry, it has always been an inconvenient but well-known industry rule for developers to create "fake mortgages" to defraud bank loans. Because this kind of illegal behavior is suspected of illegal crime, real estate developers are secretive about the public, which makes it difficult for the media and researchers to obtain relevant data that is convenient for systematic analysis. However, the fake will never be true. There is no airtight wall in the world. Through some clues, it is still easy for us to know the truth about the illegal operation of developers, speculators and bankers.

The initial practice of "fake mortgage" is to develop corporate investors and their employees to buy and sell themselves. For example, in Li Antang, a developer forced its 2 1 employees to buy two houses each; Then expand to use employees' relatives and friends to buy a house; Then it extends to the "strategic" cooperation with intermediaries and speculators. Developers issue false down payment receipts, then overestimate housing prices, so that intermediaries and speculators can easily obtain housing property rights, and then find opportunities to sell at high prices in the second-hand market. No matter what method is adopted, it will eventually involve the problem of checking out, so besides "default", checking out data is the most important way to understand the context of "fake mortgage" If a high-priced buyer can be found, or the house with a "fake mortgage" is taken away by the buyer, the real estate developer will turn the "fake mortgage" into a "real mortgage" by checking out, and erase the illegal record without affecting the cash flow.

In Beijing, the check-out rate of some hot-selling projects is as high as 30%, which shows that when the funds are "ischemic", developers change hands to make fake mortgages to defraud loans, and then look for the opportunity to check out after the crisis, ready to make a big profit when the property market picks up. In this regard, the Deputy Secretary-General of Beijing Real Estate Association argued that the check-out rate in Beijing in the first five months was only 4.7%, which obviously omitted most people who signed contracts during the "ischemia" period and checked out in1-May this year. This is an act. In Hangzhou, the housing sales in May sounded extremely hot, but the media reported six large check-out orders of1.1.70 billion yuan on the transparent house sales website, and the initial buyers were actually real estate investors. Obviously, developers are selling themselves and buying themselves, speculating on high property prices. For this audacious act of fraudulent loans and disrupting market order, the relevant real estate management department said that it cannot be characterized as illegal. It seems that only when local governments supervise real estate transactions and try their best to protect the hard-won speculative buying atmosphere can they better reflect the fundamental interests of their land suppliers.

According to the report released by the National Audit Office on June 24th, during the audit of China Industrial and Commercial Bank, China Construction Bank, China CITIC Group Corporation, China Bank, Bank of Communications and China Merchants Bank, it was found that some grass-roots branches of these six banks illegally issued land reserve loans and false mortgage loans in 2008, and provided loans of RMB 2 15 billion to unqualified real estate enterprises. The above situation reflects that bank staff, government officials and developers were found to collude with each other to obtain bank credit illegally under the credit crunch. If we consider the tacit relationship formed by their long-term cooperation, the above findings are only the tip of the iceberg, and the larger-scale illegal loans are hidden deep.

This is still the case under the credit crunch. Then, in the case of loose credit policy and the state strongly encouraging banks to increase housing consumption loans, many original violations are not only illegal, but also will lead to more new violations that "scratch the ball" and break through the bigger border. In order to seize market share, each commercial bank has its own magic power, racing against time. For example, the banking department of a province has promoted the rapid and healthy development of individual housing mortgage loans by strengthening brand promotion (competing with other banks for customer resources), setting up housing loan centers (specialized operation), integrating the approval process (limited time approval, improving the efficiency of approval), improving the reward and punishment mechanism (whoever grabs customer resources will be rewarded), and strictly implementing rules and regulations ("healthy development" is just another way of saying the number expansion). This naturally gives developers, housing agents, speculators and other huge opportunities. It is not surprising that credit approval is lax and false mortgage incidents occur frequently.

Where is the confidence of commercial banks in large-scale loans? In my opinion, the fundamental reason why banks dare to "sit on the farm" in the case of extremely high housing prices comes from two aspects: First, the central government once again emphasizes the status of the real estate industry as a pillar industry at this stage, and tries to rescue the market to the maximum extent, which has strengthened the confidence of bank policy makers that "housing prices will only rise but not fall". In other words, no matter whether there will be a default, as long as the bank has the opportunity to get back the real estate collateral, the bank will not suffer losses-this is similar to the financial companies before the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States! Second, because the central government has raised "ensuring growth" to an unprecedented political height, it has given "cheap agents" mainly controlled by the state the opportunity to gamble: if there is no "subprime mortgage crisis", large-scale lending under loose monetary policy can consolidate the position of China state-owned commercial banks as the "most profitable companies" in the global banking industry, and they can also set themselves higher annual salaries and enjoy more dividends; Once there is an uncontrollable credit crisis, we can excuse ourselves by completing political tasks and look for financial capital injection to make up for credit losses.

This "cheap agent" status of senior executives of domestic commercial banks determines the nature of "soft budget constraint" of domestic banks, that is, "negative profit without loss", and determines the game trend of banking in real estate credit, which will inevitably lay a deep hidden danger for the future financial crisis. 1 Question: I think it's time to make a decision to buy a house when the monthly income is equal to the local house price of one square meter. What do you think the ratio should be?

Sohu Weibo @ Cao Jianhai: Generally, it can't exceed 6 times of the annual household income (generally two laborers), otherwise it can't afford it in the long run.

Question 2: Who doesn't own a house now?

Sohu Weibo @ Cao Jianhai: The urbanized population-migrant workers, is rare. Their purchasing power is just a gimmick for developers to bid, so China people are cheated.

Question 3: What is the attitude of the government? When can I see real health instead of diving?

Sohu Weibo @ Cao Jianhai: The central government wants to control and reduce people's grievances, and local governments don't cooperate, but local governments can't control the current situation.

Question 4: Is it possible for the government to lower the land price? If not, why do you say that house prices will enter a downward channel?

Sohu Weibo @ Cao Jianhai: As house prices decrease, land prices naturally decrease. Now the land market reflects it. The key for the government to reduce the land price is to allocate the lowest proportion of land for free to build affordable housing. Various facts show that the real estate market since March 2009 has repeated the upward trend in 2007. Because history rarely repeats itself, speculators are even crazier, and the momentum of the property market is surpassing that of 2007. So, will history repeat itself? I think so, and it is doomed. History is similar, but it is difficult to repeat it completely. Then, when will the skyrocketing housing prices reverse and return to the downward channel since 2008? I think it is difficult to put it off until March-April next year, and it is likely to reverse in the middle of the second half of this year, that is, around September. The reason is that all the factors that determine the supply and demand of real estate do not support the rise of housing prices, and the only variable is monetary policy. According to my judgment, China's current loose monetary policy, in addition to creating excessive speculation in the asset market, is not only unhelpful to the real economy, but also will deepen the harm and hinder the pace of economic recovery. This policy will be adjusted in the second half of the year; In addition, at the beginning of this year, China decided to increase the broad money supply M2 by 17%, or about 8 trillion yuan, and increase loans by 5 trillion to 8 trillion yuan. The upper limit of these targets will be completed by September. In order to control the pace, the China government will inevitably implement the "slow braking" policy, and large-scale credit, especially illegal credit, will be greatly restricted, and the rising asset market will be controlled.

On the other hand, if the central government thinks that the economic growth has not reached the expected target and further relaxes the upper limit of the monetary policy target set in early 2009, it will be difficult to curb the rise of house prices this year, and house prices will turn around and fall by 20 10 in March and April. Because the money supply without real economic growth will inevitably lead to hyperinflation, under the "overlapping nest" of hyperinflation, the economy will further stagnate, unemployment will increase substantially, and the central government will be forced to implement strict monetary tightening policies. By then, the hot housing market will inevitably become a hot potato in the hands of banks, developers and speculators, and the collapse of housing prices is inevitable. As for whether commercial banks can protect their own assets, and whether some banks in crisis due to housing credit will lend a helping hand to the central government, and whether the central government will help commercial banks consult public opinion, let us "wait and see"!

In any case, 20 10 will be an irreversible year of house price decline, and it is expected that this downward trend will continue to bottom out at 20 12 and experience a long period of stability. By then, the ratio of the average house price (including affordable housing) in domestic cities to the household income with low growth rate may be stabilized at the safety valve value of 3-6 times, and the metropolis is basically controlled within 6 times. With the introduction of property tax and the large supply of affordable housing, China's real estate market will go out of the history of ups and downs and speculation, and house prices will gradually fade out of people's sight. Humanistic factors such as science and technology, innovation and courage will become the new focus of a prosperous society.