The end of the curtain and the electrification of new students cannot be achieved overnight, and the hybrid market will become a battleground for car companies.

Since the automobile "new four modernizations" was put forward, various automobile companies have been studying hard. Among them, domestic car companies have made good progress in the fields of electrification, intelligence and networking. But when it comes to electrification, it seems that most people first think of all kinds of pure electric or plug-in products, but forget that hybrid products are also an important member in the process of electrification. From the perspective of national policy orientation and enterprise product technology layout, hybrid electric vehicles may be the winners in the next 5~ 15 years.

Just in the middle of last month, the Technical Roadmap for Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicles 2.0 was officially released, which clarified the development goals and direction of new energy vehicles in China in the future. Roadmap 2.0 mentions that in 2035, the annual sales of energy-saving vehicles and new energy vehicles will each account for 50%, of which energy-saving vehicles should be fully mixed.

In other words, in the next 15 years, hybrid vehicles will gradually expand their market share and eventually replace ordinary fuel vehicles. Why does the state support hybrid cars?

It is difficult to popularize new energy products in a short time.

Although the technology of new energy vehicles in China has advanced by leaps and bounds in recent years, the problems of mileage anxiety, insufficient charging convenience, battery safety and low residual value of used cars cannot be completely eliminated in a short time. For consumers, switching from fuel vehicles to new energy vehicles is actually a huge change in lifestyle, and not everyone can do it in one step.

Moreover, supporting facilities and new energy products have formed a mutually restrictive relationship. Although the construction of charging piles and power stations in China is gradually expanding, by the end of 2020, the cumulative number of charging infrastructure in China will be14.98 million, up by 30.9% year-on-year, and the ratio of vehicles to piles is about 3. 14: 1, but the utilization rate of charging piles is low, only about 4%. The problem of slow charging and poor experience of public charging piles leads to a large number of charging piles being idle, which wastes a lot of land resources.

In addition to public charging piles, the construction of private car charging piles is also affected by factors such as insufficient parking spaces and uncoordinated residential properties. In the end, the construction of charging piles is uneven. In areas where charging facilities are not perfect, consumers will not choose new energy products as travel tools. In a short time, this situation is difficult to balance, thus affecting the popularization of new energy products.

From a national perspective, although electrification is regarded as an opportunity for China's automobile industry to achieve "overtaking in corners" and ensure national energy security, it turns out that it is not advisable to pull out the seedlings and encourage them. At present, in the face of the increasingly serious air pollution problem, we must first save energy and reduce emissions as much as possible. Hybrid electric vehicles are the only way for fuel vehicles to transform into new energy sources, which can greatly reduce energy consumption without changing users' car habits.

In 2035, half of the cars will be hybrid cars, with a broad market space. Roadmap 2.0 predicts that the annual production and sales scale of automobiles in China will reach 40 million vehicles in 2035 from the perspective of market demand. If this goal can be achieved, it means that the number of hybrid vehicles will reach 20 million in 2035, far exceeding the current scale.

The technological monopoly has been broken, and the biggest attraction is that hybrid cars are at the same price as oil trams.

It is foreseeable that the hybrid market will become the next battlefield for car companies. In recent years, domestic and foreign car companies have made efforts in the field of hybrid power, and their products have gradually been accepted by consumers.

Among many car companies, Toyota is undoubtedly the "king" in the hybrid field. Since 1997 introduced the Prius hybrid model, Toyota has developed in the hybrid field for more than 20 years, and it is still advancing. Not only Toyota, but also Nissan's e-POWER and Mazda's Chuangchi Blue Sky Blending Technology are famous for their advanced technology, which shows that Japanese cars are in a monopoly position in this field.

In the past, due to these technical barriers, many domestic car companies have made great efforts in research and development, with little effect. However, with the rapid development of domestic car companies, hybrid technology has been gradually conquered and foreign monopoly has been broken.

Recently, Great Wall Motor released the lemon hybrid DHT with completely independent design, research and development and completely independent intellectual property rights, which broke the monopoly of Toyota and Honda. In addition, BYD also showed the public a brand-new DM-i hybrid platform, and Changan Automobile released a brand-new 1.5T hybrid system.

In addition to their own research and development, some car companies also choose to "join hands". This year1October 20th, 165438+ Geely Holding Group and Daimler AG plan to cooperate on the efficient power system of the next generation hybrid vehicle technology. The power system will be jointly developed and produced by Mercedes-Benz and Geely, and may be carried on the models of Mercedes-Benz and its existing partners in China, including several brands under Geely Holding, including Volvo.

At the same time, Toyota's patent protection for hybrid technology gradually expired. In order to expand its influence and increase its market share, Toyota chose to embrace more allies. Not long ago, Toyota decided to provide China's joint venture partner, Guangzhou Automobile Group, with a steam-electric hybrid technology system. It is reported that FAW Group will also acquire some hybrid technologies.

The breaking of technical barriers will also bring the most crucial benefit to the popularization of hybrid products, that is, cost reduction. For a long time, the price of hybrid vehicles is much higher than that of fuel vehicles. Take Lei Ling as an example, the fuel deluxe edition is 6.5438+0.298 million yuan, and the dual-engine deluxe edition is 6.5438+0.428 million yuan, with a difference of only 6.5438+0.3 million yuan. Under the same configuration, consumers will naturally choose vehicles with lower prices. Although the fuel-efficient hybrid car saves fuel, it is difficult to make up for the extra car purchase money with the saved fuel money. If you want to achieve balance, you may have to drive to "scrap".

However, with the popularization and progress of hybrid technology, the price of such vehicles will drop sharply. Once the price of hybrid vehicles can be equal to that of fuel vehicles, the explosion period of hybrid vehicles will officially come.

Water drop point of view: As the saying goes, "Rome was not built in a day", and the overall energy saving cannot be achieved overnight. In the next 5- 15 years, traditional fuel vehicles, hybrid vehicles and new energy vehicles will all be * * *, so there is still a certain development time for each vehicle enterprise.

However, hybrid power is still a transitional technology. After all, such vehicles still need to be driven by engines, and because of this, consumers can naturally switch between gasoline-electric and fuel-powered vehicles. However, in order to switch to pure electric life without obstacles, not only consumers need to adapt gradually, but also the state and car companies need to make more efforts in infrastructure and product technology.

Text/Wu?

This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.