Will Linyi house prices fall this year?

How to interpret the trend of Linyi property market in 2009 in detail

At present, Linyi property market is affected by the global economic downturn, and the transaction volume and transaction price have made many developers feel chilly. In this context, real estate professionals, including a considerable number of developers in Linyi, are constantly reminding that "we must be prepared for the winter! Tighten your belt and defend yourself in advance. " The premise of their thinking is to be optimistic about real estate for a long time, but they think that the lack of funds in the real estate industry will not be reversed in the short term. Of course, the central government has relaxed financial control, but so far no bank has clearly expressed its support for property developers to lend more. The depressed real estate market will last for at least a few years. Most developers have realized that lack of funds will lead to fatal risks.

So how long will this property market adjustment period last? This is a problem that the market is concerned about at present. In an earlier article, this issue has been discussed for a long time, and it is optimistic that the bottom of Linyi housing price should be after the Spring Festival in 2009. Adjusting the standard of periodic regression, I predict that the time may reach 20 10, which is a two-year adjustment period. When does it indicate that the property market can go out of the adjustment period? In China, it mainly depends on policy. For example, when the government begins to adjust the real estate transaction policy and tax policy, it may mean that the real estate market will begin to develop in a good direction. At present, we have seen the government's efforts to solve this problem, so what is the most critical link? Or what is needed for the stability or upward movement of the property market?

Linyi's property market marketing campaign has been a national consumption, and a series of marketing performances such as "no reason to return a house", "one-price", "buy a house and send a car" and "send a fine decoration" still cannot reverse the unsatisfactory turnover. The main factors are: first, affected by the expected downturn in the general trend, home buyers believe that there is still room for further exploration of housing prices; Second, the Linyi property market is too large, and similar lots and products overlap seriously; Third, consumer confidence is insufficient, and saving for security is the mainstream tone. Faced with multiple factors, the recent situation of Linyi property market is more severe. First, the year is approaching, and the task of developing enterprises to withdraw funds is heavy, which can be reflected in larger enterprises; Second, the transaction price continues to fall, and the reconstruction of market confidence has not yet formed; Third, Linyi's demand stamina lacks motivation.

Facing the grim situation, Linyi real estate industry has made great moves at present. Conventional salary cuts and departmental restructuring, to the contraction of the development front, and even more extreme acts of suspension, do not rule out the possibility of capital chain breakage, but the former is more likely. Then, what should Linyi property market do next after the development and demand of key links in the market have shrunk to varying degrees? Based on the following three points, I think Linyi real estate market will soon reverse. First, relying on the western trade market to accelerate industrial upgrading, Linyi's economic aggregate continues to maintain rapid growth; Second, the urbanization process of Linyi is in the take-off stage, and the new population in cities and towns has provided impetus for the development of the real estate industry; Third, Linyi's demographic dividend will last until 2020, and the demand for stamina will still be supplemented; So what about the real estate market in 2009? Let me analyze it from eight aspects:

1, the market sales pressure is huge.

By the end of February, 2008, Linyi had more than 5 million square meters of saleable housing. It is estimated that the supply area of Linyi real estate may exceed100000 square meters in 2009, and the future exploitable land has exceeded 30 million square meters. As can be seen from some data, this year's sales are basically the same as last year's sales, that is to say, the real estate sales in Linyi in 2008. The government's continuous land sales naturally extended this process, with a large number of real estate listings and a decline in market consumption. So that everyone does not have enough to eat, even hungry, and developers who are in poor health will fall down one after another.

2. House prices will fluctuate slightly downward.

The average price of real estate in Linyi from June 5438 to August 2008 was about 3,270 yuan. Although the real estate price in Linyi has indeed risen to a certain extent in the past two years, the main reason for the price increase is the rising cost, especially the rising cost of land and Jian 'an. In 2007, the land price in Linyi rose the fastest, with an increase of 50% in some areas. In the first half of the year, steel, cement and other building materials also rose at a very high speed. Therefore, the development costs of many developers have risen sharply. In the second half of 2008, as the global economic crisis spread to China, the real estate situation in China declined to some extent, and the real estate market in Linyi also experienced some sales difficulties. At this time, although the prices of steel and cement have been lowered, the impact on the whole market is limited. The cost of Jian 'an dropped by about 5% per square meter at most.

However, from the perspective of cost recovery by developers, we believe that in 2009, due to some developers' late discounts and refund promotions, the price demand of several new properties will be lowered at the opening, which will lead to the adjustment of the whole Linyi house price under a shock.

The increase in the cost of developers will definitely be grafted. However, in the case of bad market conditions, we can reduce the sales model of profiteering and recover funds as soon as possible by means of small profits but quick turnover. At present, the real estate prices in Linyi market are mainly concentrated in some late sales. The biggest reason is that the profits of developers' later sales are basically these later sales. Reducing profit income and earning funds is the original intention of the current price reduction real estate.

3. Quality real estate wins

In 2009, the whole property market was weak, with weak trading volume, weak supply and weak prices. But even in the weakest market, there are hot items. Such a project should have the characteristics of rigid demand for innovative products, high cost performance, correct marketing strategy and high execution of sales team. Specialization will become the basis for the survival and development of real estate service enterprises, and some enterprises with profound connotations may usher in development opportunities through model innovation and service innovation.

Through the recent visit and understanding of nearly 30 projects in Linyi, I personally found that the fiercer the market competition, the more important the early positioning of developers. Huxing or product quality defects in the early positioning of real estate deviation, it is generally difficult to sell, and even shave their heads. At the same time, some properties with accurate positioning and good location in the early stage have also maintained a stable sales speed in sales.

4. Linyi entered the villa year.

In 2007, the hot sale of Shang Lu Phoenix Villa actually ignited the prelude of the entire Linyi Villa War. The real villa war is in 2009, and nearly 2000 villa products will be listed in Linyi in 2009. Sun Moon City, Olympic Garden, Riverside Sunshine, United Century New Building, Yuelanwan Hot Spring Villa, Eurotown, Xingang Longting and Binjiang International will be listed one after another, and a large number of villas will be listed to a certain extent.

Of course, the concentration of listing, the homogenization of products and the current market downturn will also affect the current market development to a certain extent.

The competition in this area tends to be obvious.

In 2006 and 2007, the land market in Linyi expanded rapidly. The total area of land sold in two years reached 1 1.5 million square meters. In 2008 1- 10, the total land transfer in Linyi was 5.07 million square meters, which, on the whole, maintained the speed of last year. However, we found that this year's industrial land was used.

time

Number of transactions

Transaction area (10,000 square meters)

Total transfer amount (100 million yuan)

Average single land transaction area (㎡)

Average transaction price of single land (100 million yuan)

Average land price (RMB/㎡)

In 2006

8 1

576.3

44. 12

7 1 148

0.55

765.57

In 2007

1 10

6 13.84

57.73

55803.36

0.53

940.5

In 2008,

128

524

Fifty two

40938

0.42

1026

growth margin

18%

- 1 1%

-0.8%

-26%

-26%

8.6%

As of February 24th, 2008, there were 28 land transactions in Linyi * * * in 2008, with a total scale of 5.24 million square meters and an average transaction area of 4 1000 square meters, which was 26% lower than the average area of 55,800 square meters in 2007, with a total transaction amount of 5.438 billion yuan and an average land price of 65,438.

Compared with 2007, the land transaction volume in Linyi in 2008 dropped sharply compared with last year, and the transaction price also rose sharply. The proportion of land transactions in Southern New District and Economic Development Zone increased significantly, while the proportion of land transactions in urban areas decreased.

6. The vacancy rate will continue to climb.

The word vacant house has not attracted attention in Linyi, but this does not mean that there is no vacancy rate of commercial housing in Linyi at present. For a long time, public opinion and public attention have focused on housing prices and market trends. In fact, the problem of vacant commercial housing in Linyi has never been improved because of the hot real estate market.

According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics, by the end of September, the vacant area of commercial housing nationwide was 65.438+0.3 billion square meters, up 654.38+0.2% year-on-year. Among them, vacant commercial housing was 664 1 10,000 square meters, up by 14438+0% year-on-year. This is a very worrying indicator. The obvious increase in the area of vacant houses means an increase in unsalable houses, which has a great impact on the return of corporate funds.

According to the current sales speed of Linyi, the regulation rate of commercial housing in Linyi will reach a very severe figure in 2009. It is estimated that it will take about 26 months to digest Linyi's current commercial housing regulation. In other words, it will take two years for Linyi market to fully recover.

7. The impact of affordable housing is obvious.

In 2008-2009, the construction area of affordable housing in Linyi City was 600,000 square meters, which was equivalent to 1/4 of the annual digestible area in Linyi City. This figure has a great impact on the whole market. The supply of about 3,000 sets of affordable housing every year has curbed the rise of housing prices in Linyi to some extent, but it has also curbed the commercial housing market in Linyi to some extent. After the central government announced the 900 billion housing security investment plan, Linyi should also arrange additional construction funds on the basis of the established housing construction plan. At present, a batch of affordable housing in Linyi has begun to surface, and its low price around 1.500 yuan has met the housing needs of most ordinary urban residents.

On the one hand, the government's investment in large-scale affordable housing, on the other hand, the continuous increase of commercial housing inventory. In the future, how to speed up the digestion of the stock housing in the real estate market will be one of the important issues facing the government.

8. From the second half of 2009 to the beginning of 20 10, the property market picked up.

Different from the stock market, the property market has the characteristics of "bulls are long and bears are short", and the real estate cycle includes 7-8 years of rising cycle and 3-4 years of falling cycle. Considering the healing period of the real economy and the economic pulling effect of the Shanghai World Expo, it is predicted that the China property market will resume its upward trend from the second half of 2009 to the beginning of 20 10, but the recovery speed is relatively slow, so it is impossible to have the explosive recovery predicted by many experts.

It can be predicted that 2009 will be a crucial year to test developers and property buyers. Send a sentence: "The hurricane has passed the post station, and the grass is safe!