Renovation of stock houses, long-term rental, "guarantee" rental houses or become a "new force" in the rental market.

Recently, the good news in the affordable housing rental market has continued.

165438+1On October 8th, China Construction Bank held the launching ceremony and cooperation signing ceremony of the housing rental fund, and the 30 billion housing rental fund officially landed, which will help the long-term rental market and increase the supply of affordable rental housing (hereinafter referred to as "affordable rental housing"). At the same time, the rental REITs continued to expand, and the rental REITs of China Resources Nest were officially approved on 1 1. The local policy level is also good again. On June 2nd, 165438+ The Standing Committee of Shanghai Municipal People's Congress publicly solicited opinions on the "Shanghai Housing Lease Regulations (Draft)", and also put forward relevant regulations on renting houses.

In this context, it is noteworthy that the supply of affordable housing will continue to expand, and will it become the mainstream of the future rental market? What areas will be its key layout? Which stock houses have the opportunity to transform into affordable housing, and what are the prospects?

According to institutional statistics, as of the end of September, there were 6 enterprises whose housing "insurance" ratio exceeded 50%. Diagram /IC diagram

Welfare is frequent, and the construction of rental housing is accelerating.

The development of housing leasing can not be separated from the support of the financial sector. 165438+1On October 8th, China Construction Bank held the launching ceremony and cooperation signing ceremony of the housing lease fund, and the 30 billion housing lease fund officially landed. On the day of the event, Jianxin Housing Leasing Fund completed the project signing in Zhihui Health City, an industrial park of Biomedical Base in Daxing District, Beijing, and acquired some idle office buildings. After that, the commercial property was transformed into rental housing and applied to be included in the Beijing affordable rental housing management system.

At the same time, affordable rental housing REITs continue to expand. The official WeChat account of China Resources Land disclosed that the nested affordable rental house REIT of China Resources was officially approved on June 5438+065438+1 October1. The listed REITs are the first REITs for central enterprises to rent housing and the fourth REITs for affordable housing. In the industry's view, the successful launch of affordable housing rental REITs has opened up new financing channels for housing enterprises, or will further promote housing enterprises to actively lay out affordable housing tracks, and will also play a demonstration role for other housing rental enterprises, thus attracting more public offering REITs with affordable housing as the underlying assets to be listed.

Judging from local policies and regulations, following the implementation of the Beijing Housing Lease Regulations on September 1,1October 2, 165438, the official WeChat account of the Shanghai Municipal People's Congress released a message saying that the Standing Committee of the Shanghai Municipal People's Congress publicly solicited opinions on the Shanghai Housing Lease Regulations (Draft). In terms of affordable rental housing, the regulations are clear and continue to expand the supply of affordable rental housing; Strengthen source planning, and clearly formulate special planning and key layout requirements; Clarify the requirements of construction management, reasonably set the access conditions and exit mechanism, optimize the application review process, improve the rent distribution and use norms, and standardize the rent and lease period.

The development of affordable rental housing has become the top priority of China's housing system construction. Since the General Office of the State Council issued "Opinions on Accelerating the Development of Affordable Rental Housing" in June last year, various localities have successively issued relevant supporting policies for affordable rental housing, including increasing land supply, reducing taxes and fees, giving financial awards, establishing a multi-department joint review mechanism, simplifying the examination and approval process, and "package" measures to accelerate the development and promote the construction of affordable rental housing.

It is reported that during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, 40 key cities across the country initially plan to add 6.5 million sets (rooms) of affordable rental housing, which is expected to help solve the housing difficulties of nearly 20 million people. Key cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen have also increased the proportion of new affordable rental housing.

"Affordable rental housing will become the main force and ballast stone of China housing rental market in the future because it has formed a complete closed-loop model of' investment, financing, construction and management'." Zhao Ran, president of ICCRA Housing Leasing Industry Research Institute, pointed out that in Beijing, for example, the potential supply of brand-name institutionalized centralized rental housing projects to be opened in the future totals more than 87,000 sets (rooms), of which the long-term rental housing managed by market operation accounts for about 44%, and the guaranteed rental housing accounts for 56%.

Li Quan, founder of Fang Dongdong Apartment College, also said that rental housing will become the mainstream of the rental market. It is estimated that by the end of 2025, the number of rental housing in China will reach a peak.

However, according to Hu Jinghui, chief economist of Jing Hui think tank, affordable rental housing will grow rapidly in the future. However, from the perspective of new supply, the scale of 6.5 million sets (rooms) in 40 key cities is only a part of the national rental housing market of 200-300 million people, and it cannot completely become the mainstream of the market, because the overall rental housing market is relatively large.

Increase the supply, and encourage the stock houses to be changed into rental houses.

Under the policy objectives, the construction of affordable housing in various places has been accelerated, and the supply increment has expanded rapidly. Hu Jinghui pointed out that in strong second-tier and first-tier cities with net population inflow, it is easier to become the mainstream of the market. "These cities have industrial and population agglomeration effects. In order to cooperate with the development of some industrial parks and development zones, it is necessary to have supporting rental houses; Weak second-tier cities will develop slowly, and third-and fourth-tier cities are not realistic. "

In terms of specific regional layout, Li Quan believes that the population introduction areas such as new towns, universities and industrial clusters and the surrounding rail transit stations will be the key places for the layout of rental housing.

For example, the "Beijing Housing Security Plan during the Tenth Five-Year Plan" mentioned that guiding new affordable housing is mainly distributed in the central city and "multi-point" areas that actively undertake appropriate functions and population relief in the central city; Reasonable layout of affordable housing around major commuting directions such as Haidian-Changping-Yanqing, Chaoyang-Shunyi-Huairou/Miyun, Chaoyang-Tongzhou-Pinggu, Fengtai-Fangshan and Shijingshan-Mentougou.

From the source of rental housing, in addition to new housing, all localities are encouraging the use of existing buildings to rebuild rental housing and increase the effective supply of rental housing through multiple channels. Taking Shanghai as an example, the "Shanghai Housing Lease Regulations (Draft)" points out that non-residential stock houses such as commercial offices, hotels, factories, warehouses, scientific research and education can be transformed into affordable rental houses on the premise of conforming to the planning principles, unchanged ownership, meeting safety requirements and respecting the wishes of the masses.

In this context, in Hu Jinghui's view, there are several possibilities for stock houses to be included in the affordable rental housing system (referred to as "Nabao"): mature projects developed by developers or self-sustaining rental housing projects; Some projects of long-term rental apartment operating enterprises; Stock transformation and old transformation projects.

In addition, in Li Quan's view, the premise of "guaranteeing" rental houses is that they are fully renovated and need living facilities, such as community canteens and convenience stores.

To calculate an account, the trend of "receiving insurance" for long-term rental apartments is obvious.

It is worth mentioning that under a series of favorable policies, many long-term rental apartments have been "guaranteed". According to ICCRA statistics, as of the end of the third quarter of this year, about 10.7% of the rooms that have been opened in China have been included in the local affordable rental housing, with a total scale of 100450 units (rooms), an increase of 3843 1 unit (room) compared with the second quarter. The rental community has the highest proportion of "insurance", and the insured rooms account for 3 1.3% of the total scale. The proportion of youth apartments and dormitory apartments is 10.9% and 7.3% respectively.

From the perspective of enterprises, according to ICCRA statistics, as of the end of the third quarter, there were 6 enterprises whose housing "insurance" ratio exceeded 50%. Among them, the coverage of Anjujinjin is 100%, that of Xinghe Holding Group is 85%, that of Joy Le Yi is 84%, and that of Jardine Beck, Daojia Kaidejia and Ningchao Apartment is 70%, 6 1% and 5 1% respectively.

Judging from the average rent level of the insured projects, ICCRA found that the average rent level decreased by 10. 18% according to the national average data of various brands, which was consistent with the provisions of "the rent is of the same quality and the rental housing products in the same lot decrease 10%" required by most cities.

In Hu Jinghui's view, Nabao, a leasing operation enterprise, is a double-edged sword with both advantages and disadvantages. Specifically, on the one hand, leasing enterprises can enjoy preferential policies such as land concessions, financial subsidies, tax reduction and exemption, water, electricity and benefiting the people, but at the same time, there will be certain restrictions and controls on rent increase, rent pricing and product standards. This means that while the cost is falling, the income may also fall. Therefore, the core that leasing companies need to consider is "calculating the accounts".

Looking forward to the future, Jaco, president of the Branch of 58 Anjuke Real Estate Research Institute, thinks that for the operators of rental houses, it should be noted that with the continuous entry of rental houses into the market, it is more difficult to operate on a large scale and intensively. At the same time, we should consider how to give full play to this policy dividend, so that the target groups in need can fully understand this kind of projects, apply for rental housing more conveniently and efficiently, eliminate the asymmetry of market information, and make the rental products and the rental needs of new youth more effective and accurate.

Beijing News reporter Zhang Xiaolan

Editor Yang proofreads.