Optimize and improve the real estate regulation and control policies, and give financial support to high-quality housing enterprises.

The Central Economic Work Conference held a few days ago deeply analyzed the current economic situation and laid out the priorities of economic work in 2023. Among them, two statements about real estate were put forward in the sections of "focusing on expanding domestic demand" and "effectively preventing and resolving major economic and financial risks". The relevant person in charge of the Central Financial Office also fully affirmed the importance of the real estate industry to release housing to improve demand and avoid risks when accepting questions from media reporters, which is also the key direction of real estate policy next year.

Some insiders believe that the elimination of restrictive policies that are not conducive to the release of consumer demand will be the focus of future policies, including liberalizing the purchase restriction policy, relaxing the first suite identification standards and ordinary residential identification standards. It is expected that more support policies will be introduced in the future to improve demand. At the same time, the supply-side policy with liquidity support and expected management as the core will continue to exert its strength, the merger and reorganization of housing enterprises will accelerate, and the balance sheet of head housing enterprises is expected to take the lead in welcoming improvement.

Restrictive policies are expected to be lifted.

The Central Economic Work Conference put forward "supporting the consumption of housing improvement, new energy vehicles, old-age services, etc." in the part of "focusing on expanding domestic demand", which is in line with the expression of "promoting the healthy development of household consumption" in the Strategic Plan for Expanding Domestic Demand (2022-2035) issued by the State Council on February 14, 2004.

The Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that it is necessary to give priority to restoring and expanding consumption, and at the same time give priority to supporting housing to improve consumption in expanding domestic demand, which fully reflects the important role of housing consumption.

The relevant person in charge of the Central Financial Office recently said that there is still much room for improvement in China's urbanization rate, and the demand for rigid and improved housing is huge. The next step is to continuously optimize demand-side management and increase financial support for just-needed and improved housing demand. Efforts should be made to improve expectations and expand effective demand. For example, there are still some restrictive policies that hinder the release of consumer demand in housing consumption and other fields, and these consumption potentials should be released; Combine the implementation of the birth policy and the talent policy to solve the housing problems of new and old citizens and young people; Reasonably increase consumer credit and support consumption such as housing improvement. Recently, intensive policies and measures will gradually take effect, and various policies and measures will continue to be improved.

Chen Cong, chief analyst of the real estate industry of CITIC Securities Research Department, believes that the elimination of restrictive policies that are not conducive to the release of consumer demand will be the focus of future policies.

It is expected that the purchase restriction of housing in second-tier provincial capital cities is expected to be greatly liberalized, and the purchase restriction in first-tier and new first-tier cities is also expected to be optimized in terms of implementation standards and geographical scope. After 20 16, the credit record affected the down payment regulations of residents, which seriously affected the release of the demand of "selling old and buying new" and "selling small and buying big". It is expected that in the near future, the criteria for determining the first set of housing and loans will be relaxed. In addition, the identification standards of ordinary houses in various places are too strict, which affects the reasonable improvement of transaction convenience. It is expected that the identification standards of ordinary houses in various places will be relaxed.

Recently, Hangzhou, Chengdu, Nanjing, Wuhan, Foshan, Dongguan and other places have successively optimized the policy of restricting loans and purchases. Yang Kan, chief analyst of the real estate industry of Ping An Securities, believes that compared with the relaxation cycle of 20 14 to 20 15, there is still room for relaxation in the current core cities in terms of restricting purchases and loans, and it is expected that more support policies will be introduced at the subsequent demand side (especially at the improved demand side).

According to Zhao Ke, chief analyst of China Merchants Securities' real estate industry, the demand side in the future may still focus on just-needed and improved demand support policies, such as reducing the down payment ratio of second homes and optimizing the policy of recognizing houses and loans.

The relevant person in charge of UBS Wealth Management Investment Director's Office also predicted that more favorable demand-side policies will be introduced, including lowering down payment and mortgage interest rates, reducing taxes on first-hand and second-hand real estate transactions, and even providing subsidies for buyers. The meeting also mentioned "solving the housing problems of new citizens and young people", and did not rule out the possibility of relaxing restrictions on buying houses in more cities.

Improve the assets and liabilities of housing enterprises

The Central Economic Work Conference focused on the part of "effectively preventing and resolving major economic and financial risks", in which the more innovative formulation was to meet the reasonable financing needs of the industry, promote industry restructuring and mergers and acquisitions, effectively prevent and resolve the risks of high-quality head housing enterprises, and improve the balance sheet.

Recently, China Liu He, Vice Premier of the People's Republic of China also said that real estate is a pillar industry of the national economy. In view of the current downside risks, we have introduced some policies and are considering new measures to improve the balance sheet of the industry and guide the market expectation and confidence to rebound.

"The risk of the real estate industry is the main risk factor affecting economic operation. We should fully realize the importance of the real estate industry and take countermeasures to ensure the stable development of the real estate market. " The relevant person in charge of the Central Financial Office clearly pointed out that on the supply side, we will continue to grasp the policies introduced in 2022 and introduce new measures in 2023, focusing on solving the problem of improving the assets and liabilities of housing enterprises.

Improving the balance sheet of real estate enterprises has become a task repeatedly emphasized by the regulatory authorities recently. The People's Bank of China and the China Securities Regulatory Commission recently held a meeting to implement the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference, and both proposed to support the reorganization and merger of the real estate industry and improve the assets and liabilities of head housing enterprises. The CSRC also proposed to implement the equity financing policy for real estate enterprises, allow qualified real estate enterprises to "backdoor" listed real estate enterprises, and allow listed companies in closely related industries such as real estate and construction to implement housing-related restructuring.

Wang Qiuheng, an analyst in the real estate industry of Galaxy Securities, believes that the Central Economic Work Conference proposed to provide support from the supply side to ease the liquidity tension in the industry, which is also in line with the "Financial 16", "Three Arrows", "Special Payment for Guaranteed Property" and "Replacement of Pre-sale Funds by Letter of Guarantee" since June10. It is expected that the supply-side policy will continue to exert its strength, and the balance sheet of head housing enterprises will take the lead in improving.

Regarding the specific policies to improve the assets and liabilities of real estate enterprises, Liu Shui, the research director of the Enterprise Division of Central Academy of Sciences, believes that equity financing is the most direct and effective way to improve. The "backdoor listing" proposed by the CSRC has opened up new ideas. On the one hand, it has increased new equity financing channels for unlisted housing enterprises, and on the other hand, it has provided opportunities for listed housing enterprises unable to increase their balance sheets.

Zhao Ke believes that faster measures to improve balance sheet or debt extension and restructuring may include debt-to-equity swap, purchasing non-performing assets, and accelerating debt restructuring. It may be beneficial to housing enterprises with high residual value and quasi-risk. At the same time, it may mean that housing enterprises with defective business models and low residual value may speed up clearing, which will help improve the industry competition pattern in the medium and long term.

Han Yizhiku believes that it will be very important to inject credit into enterprises from the equity level, especially for private enterprises. From SASAC's point of view, we can consider moderately relaxing the assessment of profit rate and asset-liability ratio of state-owned enterprises and central enterprises, and support financial asset management companies (AMC) or central state-owned enterprises to acquire the equity of housing enterprises or projects, so as to solve the worries of AMC/ central state-owned enterprises and promote the faster resolution of industry risks. The central state-owned enterprise's shareholding in private real estate enterprises can solve the credit problem of enterprises from the source. From the financing point of view, the new cash flow of enterprises will be smoother and more secure, and the amount will increase accordingly, which will also enhance the confidence of housing consumers in enterprise delivery and improve cash flow.