Behind the notice of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, should we bid farewell to demolition? Do you want to buy that house?

On August 10, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued the Notice on Preventing Demolition and Construction in the Implementation of Urban Renewal (Draft for Comment) (hereinafter referred to as the Notice). There are eleven articles in the "Notice", referring to the excessive real estate development and construction methods in some cities, which tend to be quick and quick. In some places, old buildings are demolished at will, residents are requisitioned, old trees are cut down, housing prices are raised in disguise, and the cost of living is raised, resulting in new urban problems.

There are three key points to pay attention to: first, strictly control the demolition, second, strictly control the increase, and third, strictly control the relocation. What does this mean? It shows that the era of "removing the whole family to get rich" has passed, and the days of getting rich by removing them are gone forever.

No more demolition and wealth

So why did the country introduce this policy? This has to mention the "village in the city". At present, no matter Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai, Wuhan, Chengdu or Wenzhou, there are a large number of villages or old cities waiting to be demolished, which are called "villages in the city". They are located in the bustling area of the city with high land prices. It's not a myth to get rich when you tear it down. After the "Notice" was issued, the most sad thing was them.

At present, there is cash compensation for the demolition of shanty towns or old cities. Many people in shanty towns or villages in the city have a large real estate area, and the compensation for demolition is also very large. If you are in a first-and second-tier city, you can even get millions or even tens of millions of compensation.

Apart from monetary compensation, these residents will also have relocated houses to live in. In the case of meeting the living conditions, they will have extra funds to invest, and one of their investment goals is real estate. As a result, after a large amount of funds entered the property market, house prices continued to rise.

Land finance moving knife

If local governments are not allowed to demolish large buildings, they will probably not be happy, which involves land finance. Land finance means that local governments rely on the income from the transfer of land use rights to maintain local fiscal expenditure. Simply put, it is land sales, which is also a major reason for the continued high housing prices. Land finance is even the main source of income for many underdeveloped cities.

How can that barren land be sold at a high price? It's simple. Plan! The government said it would build schools and hospitals here and put key projects here, so people would think it was a place with great potential and developers would come here to buy it. Ordinary people spend money to buy houses, developers build houses and sell houses to earn the difference, and the government takes money to carry out urban planning. With the development of the city, more enterprises and more people, there will be new demand for houses, and the government can also launch new plans, thus forming a good cycle. The rapid development of China in recent years can not be separated from the support of land finance policy. Does it feel good to listen?

First, land finance has worsened the distribution of national income, and the proportion of government revenue to GDP is too high, which will not only lead to the slow growth of residents' income, but also inhibit social investment. Second, government investment has affected the adjustment of industrial structure, and all government money has been invested in urban construction, which has greatly promoted the prosperity of the construction industry and real estate industry, and promoted the development of related industries such as decoration, property and cement. Over-exploitation occupies a lot of social resources. Third, excessive dependence on real estate will lead to natural monopoly, so how to solve the huge contradiction between housing prices and residents?

The experience of the United States, Japan and developed countries along the way tells us that the economy that relies on real estate development is like a bubble, and it collapses when it collapses. Land finance can be eaten for a while, but it cannot be eaten all the time. The state has made up its mind to regulate it, as evidenced by a series of policies introduced this year.

The era of buying a house is over

That policy is so good, after dinner, does it mean that house prices are beginning to fall? At present, no. Because the land price has not dropped, developers are busy buying land and the cost has not come down. How to lower the house price? But for now, once the subsequent demolition and construction are suspended, a large number of high-rise buildings and old cities in the city center will face crisis. You can't tear it down, you can only sell it or rent it.

Renting can effectively alleviate the high price of the current housing rental market, and selling it will also lead to a decline in the price of the second-hand housing market. It sells too much. Who will buy it? Buy up and not buy down. Without the receiver, the house may still be in my own hands.

If you have your own house, it is not a necessary investment choice at present. The era of closing your eyes to buy a house is over, and the era of crazy house prices is over. If you consider buying a house, the core area of the core city is still worth investing. If you are in a second-and third-tier city, it is best not to invest in non-core areas, and unless you come to the school district, it is best not to buy old cities, especially old houses and high-rise old houses.

At the moment when the property market is fully regulated, as long as there are factors that are not conducive to stabilizing the property market price, they will be put forward in a targeted manner, and if necessary, they will be put on the table and repaired. I believe that with the regulation of housing prices, a reasonable "housing price spring" is not far away.