Real estate may usher in diversified development opportunities.

New urbanization has once again become the key word of the two sessions. At this year's two sessions, the new urbanization put forward a new stage goal. The government work report released on March 5, 20021clearly stated that during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period (20021to 2025), the urbanization rate of permanent residents in China will increase to 65%.

Then, under the current situation, how to further promote urbanization and improve the quality of development? What new historical opportunities does the real estate industry face under the new urbanization?

Promote the new urbanization strategy and expand urban agglomerations and metropolitan areas.

On March 5th, People's Republic of China (PRC) Li Keqiang, Premier of the State Council of the People's Republic of China pointed out in his government work report that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, we will further promote the new urbanization strategy with people as the core, speed up the urbanization of agricultural transfer population, increase the urbanization rate of permanent residents to 65%, develop and expand urban agglomerations and metropolitan areas, implement urban renewal actions, improve the housing market system and housing security system, and improve the quality of urbanization development.

Looking back on the government work reports of the past three years, the promotion of new urbanization is proceeding in an orderly manner: from 20 19 "to do a good job in settling down the agricultural transfer population and promote the coverage of the permanent population by urban basic public services", to 2020 "to give play to the comprehensive driving role of central cities and urban agglomerations, cultivate industries and increase employment", to this year "to improve the quality of urbanization development" and "urbanization" every year.

In fact, from the figures, since the reform and opening up, China has experienced the largest urbanization process in the world. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, from 1978 to 20 19, the resident population of cities and towns in China increased from 654.38+72 million to 848 million, and the urbanization rate increased from 17.92% to 60.6%.

This year, the government work report not only put forward more specific development indicators for new urbanization during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period-the urbanization rate of permanent residents increased to 65%, but also proposed that the development focus should be to expand urban agglomerations and metropolitan areas, implement urban renewal actions, and improve the housing market system and housing security system, which also pointed out the direction for the high-quality development of new urbanization.

Chen Jinshi, deputy to the National People's Congress and chairman of the board of directors of Zhongnan Group, believes that at present, in the construction of urban agglomerations and metropolitan areas, there are huge differences in public facilities between large and small cities, imbalance in housing supply and demand structure in small cities, population outflow and housing surplus, and the housing needs of floating population and new citizens in big cities are difficult to meet, with a huge gap. The housing problem in big cities and the development problem in small cities are prominent.

In this regard, Chen Jinshi put forward specific suggestions, saying that on the one hand, it is necessary to strengthen the overall planning of urban agglomerations and metropolitan areas, and strengthen the radiation of large cities to small and medium-sized cities in the circle by strengthening the integration of three regulations and opening up the public infrastructure of urban agglomerations and metropolitan areas; On the other hand, big cities are allowed to establish linkage with surrounding counties and cities, urban and rural areas, increase the housing supply of surrounding small and medium-sized cities radiated by big cities, share the housing pressure of big cities, resolve the contradiction between supply and demand, and promote the development of surrounding small cities at the same time.

"Urban agglomerations, metropolitan areas and public facilities are integrated and enjoy the supporting resource policies of big cities, such as medical care and education. ; Explore more such pilots with reference to the Hengqin model in Macao and the Xiong' an model in Beijing. " Chen Jinshi said.

Yang Chang, chief analyst of the Policy Group of Zhongtai Securities Research Institute and chief economist of the Institute of Policy and Governance of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, explained that "urban renewal is more about stock, and improving the housing market system and security system, especially the promotion of * * * property houses, is expected to further increase, which is very important for urbanization development."

The core urban agglomeration has obvious advantages, and real estate contains diversified development opportunities.

For the real estate industry, accelerating new urbanization also contains new historical opportunities.

"Residential, office, cultural, medical, consumption, entertainment and other real estate facilities can provide essential infrastructure for urbanized production methods and lifestyles. The increase of urbanization rate will create more real estate demand, so accelerating urbanization rate will inevitably bring more opportunities for the development of real estate." Chen Jinshi said in an interview with The Beijing News.

In Chen Jinshi's view, the first is the change in the layout of housing enterprises. "The growth of housing demand in the future is mainly in metropolitan areas and new urban clusters, so the focus of improving housing system construction is also metropolitan areas and urban agglomerations, including the construction and guidance of new housing and service facilities, as well as the understanding of the value of their original facilities, resource coordination, functional adjustment and upgrading. It is suggested that on the basis of giving full play to the enthusiasm of social subjects, the state should give more play to the dominant position and coordination mechanism of different regions in the cluster. "

RealData explained that in the process of urbanization, the population will flow to the core urban agglomerations such as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao, Yangtze River Delta and Chengdu-Chongqing, and the real estate market share will gather to the core urban agglomerations at the same time. These areas are supported by strong housing demand, and the market performance will be better than other areas.

"For the real estate industry, whether it can conform to the trend of population centripetal concentration is an important factor in determining the future development space of housing enterprises." Yang Chang said.

The research report from Everbright Securities pointed out that with the deepening of new urbanization, the real estate industry will face diversified development opportunities. "For the government to improve the housing security system and increase the rental housing in big cities, housing enterprises should give full play to their own brand advantages and customer base advantages, actively cut into stock operations (such as long-term rental apartments) and life services (such as property services), and actively undertake necessary social responsibilities. At the same time, they should also explore diversified development opportunities. "

"But the development of real estate must adhere to the orientation of' the house is for living, not for speculation', and the pursuit of a better life requires a stable and healthy environment. Therefore, only by conforming to the orientation of national policies can industries and enterprises better seize historical opportunities. " Chen Jinshi added.

Help new citizens and young people solve the housing problem in the process of urbanization.

In the process of new urbanization, how to make people live and work in cities has become the key. Therefore, in the process of urbanization, solving the housing problem has also become the focus of attention of the two sessions.

The population is increasingly gathering in the first-and second-tier core cities. How to solve the housing problem in big cities? In the government work report, Premier Li Keqiang pointed out that to solve the outstanding housing problems in big cities, we should increase the supply of affordable rental housing and property housing by increasing land supply, arranging special funds and concentrating on construction, standardize the development of long-term rental housing market, reduce the tax burden of rental housing, and try our best to help new citizens and young people alleviate their housing difficulties.

In this regard, Jaco, Dean of the Branch of 58 Anjuke Real Estate Research Institute, believes that in solving the housing problem in big cities, the government work report mentions increasing the supply of * * * property housing. From the last 20 18 government work report, it was mentioned that the property right housing should be developed, and now it appears again in the government work report, and the expression has changed from "development" to "increase".

"In the future, the volume of * * * property houses will become larger and larger, covering more second-and third-tier cities, especially second-tier cities. In addition, with the increasing coverage of * * * property houses, it will also greatly promote the stability of housing prices and the entire market. " Jaco said.

For the influx of new citizens in the process of urbanization, the 20021Government Work Report also focuses on helping new citizens and young people to alleviate their housing difficulties. In this regard, Zou, head of the housing big data project team of the Institute of Finance and Economics of China Academy of Social Sciences, explained, "This also means that there will be more inclination for this group of people in terms of supply."

"Solving the housing problem of new citizens will also be an important aspect of the urban talent strategy, which is conducive to the introduction and stability of urban talents. At present, many cities have gradually incorporated new citizens into the housing security system. Although this ratio is still relatively low at present, there should be more policies to protect the housing of this group of people in the future. " Zou further stated.

In the new urbanization, with the growth of urban agglomerations and metropolitan areas, population inflows also overflow from first-and second-tier cities to surrounding small and medium-sized cities. In this regard, Chen Jinshi suggested, "increase the housing supply of surrounding small and medium-sized cities radiated by big cities, share the housing pressure of big cities, resolve the contradiction between supply and demand, and promote the development of surrounding small cities."