In 2023, family farms will usher in unprecedented development opportunities? Experts say so.

A few days ago, the webcast conference "Listening to the Future —— New Year Speech on the Development of China Pig Industry in 2022-2023" hosted by Ningbo Sansheng Biotechnology Co., Ltd. came to a successful conclusion.

Dr. Yan Zhichun, chief scientist of New Hope Liuhe, Professor Zhang Guihong, professor of South China Agricultural University, post expert of national pig modern industrial system, and Mr. Li Dan, editor-in-chief of Jim. Com- New Pig Academy, Dr. Chai Weidong, Director of Technical Service Department of Ningbo Sansheng Biotechnology Co., Ltd. and other industry experts discussed and shared topics such as "Key words of pig industry in 2022", "development prospect of pig industry in 2023" and "effective measures to purify pig diseases in China", and the golden sentences of experts attracted nearly 20,000 people to participate.

Q 1: Looking back on 2022, what is the biggest change you have seen in the pig industry? Or what impressed you the most?

Dr. Yan Zhichun: The biggest change I collected in 2022 is that the industry is changing from rapid external expansion to internal cost reduction and efficiency improvement, and enterprises are more interested in internal cost management.

Many of them have good practices and have a long-term impact on the whole industry.

For example, many pig enterprises have updated their breeding herds, which not only improves the efficiency of breeding herds, but also has a far-reaching impact on the growth, disease prevention and control and cost management of subsequent weaned piglets.

Dr. Yan Zhichun

Professor Zhang Guihong: In 2222, my biggest feeling was the wide application and rapid development of vertical pig-raising mode in China.

In the past two years, the pig industry in China has experienced a large-scale expansion, and many new pig farms have been built, including pig farms. These two years are the time when these new pig farms began to put into operation.

Take Loulou pig farm as an example. Judging from the current approximate data, the built production capacity (including those not fully integrated) is close to 1 100 million, which is a very huge scale.

At present, many new construction pig farms are designed by Dr. Yan Zhichun. Some pig farms adopt the feeding mode of "batch every 28 days", relying on their own internal renewal, they can produce 13 batches of pigs a year, and the breeding efficiency is very high.

In the future, "batch every 28 days" is actually a good choice for pig farms to achieve the best production efficiency.

Professor Zhang Guihong

Teacher Li Dan: What moved me most in 2022 was that the industry chose to believe.

Believe in technology, believe that building a pig farm is possible, not only feasible, but also efficient, which combines many integrated technologies and personnel cooperation.

In addition, in 2022, the fluctuation of pig price is huge, and the increase of feed raw materials is unprecedented, which is a great test for farmers, but we will find that people in the industry are actively responding, and some people are actively saving themselves in closed management and control; Some people are making a bow at a loss and making a firm transformation; Some people bravely explore new ways and grow against the trend in the "price involution dilemma". These are worthy of respect. After all, enterprises that can cross 2022 are competitive, which also represents an important force for the rise of great powers.

Miss Li Dan.

Dr. Chai Weidong: I walk around the first-line pig farms all the year round. What I feel most in 2022 is that the first-line pig farms are making some operations technical and streamlined.

For example, in the operation of a pig farm, each ordinary insemination employee can breed 16 sows per hour. If you want to train a qualified breeder, you need more than 5000 feeding experiences. However, with the emergence of some innovative products, such as Sansheng's automatic vas deferens, the training times of a qualified breeder have been reduced from 5,000 to 654,300, which is convenient, stable and efficient. Moreover, it takes about 6 minutes to prepare a pig from the traditional way, which is shortened to about 1-2 minutes, reducing the dependence on personnel and operation technology. In the later production process, simple tools and methods are sought after by pig farms.

Dr. Chai Weidong

Q2: Under the background of pig scale and industrialization, what linkage changes may occur in the pig industry in 2023?

Dr. Yan Zhichun: In recent ten years, the highly pathogenic blue ear disease in 2006 and the African swine fever epidemic of 20 18 have profoundly and permanently changed the production mode and profit model of pig farmers.

Marked by the change of profitability, the progress of facilities/models/scales and the emergence of major epidemics, the modern pig industry in China has developed and upgraded in a big wave, and gradually formed an advanced pig industry with modern characteristics.

In fact, as early as 20 15, we made a judgment on the development trend of the industry. At that time, it was said that in the next 5- 10 years, there will inevitably be 3-5 giants with national influence in China pig industry, and new pig farms with fully enclosed, automatic control and automatic feeding will become the mainstream. Now, the judgment at that time has been confirmed.

As far as 2023 is concerned, the rapid concentration of the industry will be more typical. Under the situation of rapid concentration, the market structure has been reconstructed. We will wait and see how the leading enterprises in China can play a leading role in price, market and technology.

Q3: The promotion of pig-raising scale and the arrival of industrialization era need many new technologies and models to support it. What technologies does our industry need to support the arrival of the era of pig industrialization?

Dr. Yan Zhichun: I think the most urgent thing is the renewal of breeding pigs, and how to quickly purify endemic infectious diseases is the first problem that large pig-raising enterprises need to solve.

In addition, the upgrading of mass production technology enables large-scale pig-raising enterprises to obtain greater profits without paying too much investment.

Some leading enterprises from the original unit production to weekly mass production, and now to the mass production, the typical 28-day mass production, is of great help to solve several key problems of pig health in China, such as viral diarrhea, blue ear disease, purification of pseudorabies and so on.

28-day batch production may become the next revolutionary production mode.

Q4: How should pig farms of all sizes, such as pig enterprises, large-scale farms and family farms, cope with the upcoming scale trend?

Professor Zhang Guihong: For large pig-raising enterprises, apart from renewing breeding groups and cleaning up diseases, the most important thing is to cultivate talents and recruit high-quality talents with learning ability.

Large pig-raising enterprises need a person who can absorb and implement the latest and most advanced breeding concepts and technologies, so as to improve the efficiency of pig farms and reduce losses.

Family farms also have high requirements for people, but the requirements for people here are more reflected in the sense of responsibility and require solid and meticulous work, which can also ensure the efficiency of pig farms.

Teacher Li Dan: Large pig-raising enterprises should formulate some standardized processes, develop in the direction of intelligence, minimize the influence of human factors in front-line production, and turn uncontrollable into controllable.

The most important thing for large-scale pig farms is to control cash flow and improve production performance.

This requires some technologies, such as mass production, to share the monthly risk of each batch of pigs.

In 2023, family farms will usher in unprecedented development opportunities.

At present, the expansion of all head enterprises is mainly concentrated in breeding pig farms and sow farms.

However, their supporting fattening facilities are seriously inadequate.

This requires family farms to help with fattening work, and also provides opportunities for family farms to cooperate with big pig enterprises.

For family farms, walking with like-minded people is the best and most stable way to avoid risks.

Dr. Yan Zhichun: If the family farm operates independently, it will have its own sows, piglets and fattening itself.

Such a family farm, its breeding efficiency, key fattening technology, feed processing cost, etc. It cannot be compared with large-scale pig farms, especially when the market is near the cost line.

So family farms cooperate with large enterprises, such as equity participation and profit sharing. Let the family farm be specifically responsible for fattening, which can go further.

Q5: What aspects should pig farms improve their efficiency or competitiveness in the future?

Professor Zhang Guihong: For all pig farms, disease prevention and control must be a key to enhance competitiveness.

Especially once infected with African swine fever, it is a matter of life and death.

If you are infected with diseases such as blue ear disease, even if it has nothing to do with life and death, at least hundreds of thousands of millions of losses will be caused to ordinary pig farms at one time, and the interests of pig farms will be stolen by diseases.

Dr. Yan Zhichun: There will be many problems after the establishment of new pig farms and herds.

Judging from the situation in the past two years, how can we operate well after the establishment of large-scale facilities and equipment? How to achieve the design goal in the environmental control and transportation efficiency of pigsty? This is a problem faced by many pig farms.

In addition to diseases, all kinds of problems encountered by pigs in the subsequent breeding stage should be solved when the pig herd is established.

After the pig farm is put into production, the planning and population source of sows need to be considered in the longer term.

This is a great test of the management ability and execution ability of regional managers and field directors.

There is a lot of work to be done at these levels of detail.

Teacher Li Dan: It is very important for the replacement and optimization of the core population.

If it is a breeding pig farm, a series of purification measures can be formulated, such as controlling the epidemic situation and improving the health level of breeding pigs, in order to obtain market premium rights.

If it is an autotrophic farm, we must consider the capacity utilization rate and pigsty turnover rate, adopt batch management, and increase the capacity utilization rate to over 70%, so as to plan the number of pigs to be slaughtered every month, ensure the number of pigs to be slaughtered every month, and avoid the embarrassment of selling pigs at high prices and selling pigs at low prices.

Q6: How will the live pig market evolve in 2023? Or what factors will affect the changes in the market?

Professor Zhang Guihong: The law of pig price changes mainly depends on the relationship between supply and demand.

First of all, it depends on the stock of fertile sows. There are too many sows, and the price of pigs will definitely not be too good.

Another is to look at the consumer side. As far as I know, the consumption peak in 2022 has not reached 80% before the COVID-19 epidemic, and the supply of live pigs is seriously exceeding the demand.

The market next year should not be particularly optimistic, but it should not be particularly pessimistic. The most important thing is that enterprises should control their costs in order to cope with the depressed market.

Dr. Yan Zhichun: There are too many uncertainties.

Judging from the data from various channels, sows are basically rising steadily, but the increase is not particularly large.

In the consumer market, there is still a big gap between China and the normal market demand, so the market changes mainly depend on the relationship between supply and demand.

Li Dan: On the whole, there will be fewer black swan events in the pig industry in 2023. With the clarification and liberalization of COVID-19's policies, consumption will gradually heat up, the fluctuation of pig prices will be reduced, the uncertainty will be reduced, the external environment will be more stable, and the relationship between supply and demand will not be easily broken by the external environment.

In addition, Professor Zhang Guihong, Mr. Li Dan and Dr. Chai Weidong also shared topics such as "New Trend of Disease Purification in Pig Farms in China and Several Effective Measures", "Keyword Analysis of Pig Industry in 2022" and "Advantages of Mass Production in Disease Prevention and Control"!

Professor Zhang Guihong mentioned in the class sharing of "The New Trend of Pig Farm Epidemic Purification in China and Several Effective Measures" that pig farm epidemic disease is the biggest killer to steal the interests of pig farms. Under the great pressure of cost competition, disease purification has become a necessary choice for pig farms, and it is also the goal orientation of national policies, and it is also closely related to corporate interests and social needs.

For breeding groups in breeding farms and sow farms, African swine fever, swine fever, pseudorabies, blue ear disease, epidemic diarrhea and other diseases should be "cleaned" to reduce the impact of diseases on pig farms.

Professor Zhang Guihong emphasized that the National Pig Core Breeding Farm requires monitoring and purification of major or important diseases (African swine fever, foot-and-mouth disease, swine fever, porcine pseudorabies and porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome) in order to keep the population highly healthy.

Before the end of 2025, all the animal disease purification creation sites or demonstration sites designated by African swine fever or national pig core farms at or above the provincial level will be completed, and those that have not been completed will be disqualified.

In addition, Professor Zhang Guihong also popularized the evaluation criteria for the purification of various vertically transmitted diseases for online audiences, and shared the strategies for the purification of diseases in farms.

Teacher Li Dan pointed out in the courseware sharing of "Keyword Analysis of Pig Industry in 2022" that the pig breeding industry in China has entered a large-scale era, and many new technologies have emerged under the characteristics of this era, which also puts forward higher requirements for pig enterprises. In this context, Teacher Li Dan shared two key words: "extreme cost reduction" and "building a pig farm"!

Keyword 1: extreme cost reduction.

Teacher Li Dan pointed out that the pig price is in an abnormal fluctuation and unstable state after non-plague, and limiting shrinkage is an effective means to smooth the pig cycle.

Throughout the large pig enterprises such as Muyuan and Wenshi, they are trying their best to reduce costs through intelligence and feed formula optimization, which is also the foundation of competition among pig enterprises.

Keyword 2: build a pig farm.

By the end of 2022, there were 257 new pig production projects in China, with a total production capacity of 654.38+0.3 billion heads.

Among them, there are 64 pig farm projects, involving 23.32 million pigs, accounting for 18%. The construction of pigsty is the rapid integration of technology and the embodiment of China's leap from agriculture to industry.

In the courseware sharing of "Advantages of mass production in disease prevention and control", Dr. Chai Weidong analyzed the actual data of pig farms and concluded that in the prevention and control of blue ear disease, mass production reduced the detection rate of blue ear disease in each production stage, which was more conducive to the establishment and maintenance of a positive and stable state of blue ear disease.

For epidemic diarrhea, mass production can avoid the introduction of new viruses, prevent infection and effectively reduce the chance of exposure to viruses by optimizing biological safety and pig flow management.

Judging from the changes before and after the implementation of mass production, the number of PSY and weaned piglets increased significantly eight months after the pigs were converted to mass production, which will make the sow farm more stable and shorten the time to market for pigs.

Generally speaking, the mass production mode has a good performance in disease control and stable production system.

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The rapid increase of scale is one of the biggest changes that will take place in China pig breeding industry in the last two years and the next few years. Under the background of pig scale and industrialization, pig industry giants are becoming oligarchs, and the industry layout has undergone tremendous changes. At the same time, new technologies and new models are constantly being introduced, and the pig industry is undergoing qualitative changes.

Faced with this change, it is a problem that pig farmers must face to improve quality and efficiency and do everything possible to increase their competitiveness.

It remains to be seen how pig enterprises, large-scale pig farms and family farms survive in the big waves.