The property market suddenly changed, and three good news came! In order to help those who just need to buy a house, this time the country is serious.

Cao Dewang, a doer, said, "Real estate virtually killed the dreams of the younger generation." He believes that those who engage in scientific research can't stay, those who engage in craftsmen can't afford it, and those who engage in innovation dare not rush. In the final analysis, it is the "disaster" caused by high housing prices. Not only that, he even bluntly revealed that China's economy is difficult, and the problem is also in real estate.

Coincidentally, Ma Yun also said, "If real estate has always been our economic pillar, then we will lose the happiness of a generation." Between the lines, I feel distressed for the younger generation. It also implies that economic development can no longer rely too much on real estate.

The two bosses unanimously lashed out at "high housing prices' crushing' the younger generation", which is by no means aimless. According to statistics from relevant institutions, as of today, there are 63 cities with house prices exceeding 1, yuan, and the average house price in China has reached 9,4 yuan/flat. Only based on the national average price, young people must prepare at least 5, down payment, taxes, decoration fees and other expenses when buying a house. According to the data of Zhaopin Recruitment in 219, in some second-tier cities, 95% of people's wages did not reach 5, yuan per month. We will make a monthly salary of 5, yuan, and if we want to make up 5, yuan, a person will have to save for nearly 1 years without eating or drinking. 5% of sophisticated people are still under such pressure to buy a house. Don't forget that there are still 6 million people in China whose monthly salary is less than 1, yuan. You can imagine how big their house is.

In yesterday's article, we also said that in the face of high housing prices, young people in many big cities have actually begun to hate real estate, and a considerable proportion of them are following the footsteps of Japanese young people in the 199s-starting a low-desire life: they are afraid to buy a house, fall in love, get married and have children.

In recent years, we have met many young people who give up on themselves because they can't afford a house and can't get married. In the communication with them, we also know that it is precisely because of the state's repeated regulation and control that it gives hope again and again, and then the reality disappoints them, so they are disgusted with real estate-their ideals (falling house prices) have lost to reality (rising house prices) and their confidence has long been completely destroyed.

especially the changes that the real estate market has experienced since this year have made many people question the purpose of regulation-countless people are looking forward to seeing a complete improvement in real estate after this "one battle", and the house price will return to a reasonable level that just needs to be affordable, and it is best to completely disappear the phenomenon of investing in real estate in the market. In fact, many people did see the dawn of victory in the first three months, but what happened in real estate after April dealt a heavy blow to many people-the property market recovered rapidly, not only the developers announced "price increase", but also the major hot cities ushered in the long-lost "ten thousand people queuing to grab the house", especially the "ten thousand people shaking" and "ten thousand people grabbing" in the property markets of Hangzhou, Chengdu and Shenzhen. Especially in June, the moment when the National Bureau of Statistics released the data on the rise and fall of house prices, the house prices in 94% cities in the country were rising, which completely shattered the only hope left in the hearts of those who just needed it.

in p>22, will the property market really repeat its glory five years ago? Do housing prices really have to usher in a "rebound" in the second half of the year? Is it really getting harder and harder to just buy a house in the second half of the year?

at the critical moment, the state made the final decision, and the property market suddenly changed-on July 3th, when most experts predicted that the Politburo meeting would "never mention real estate", everything turned around-the state not only focused on real estate, but also released an unprecedented tightening signal: we should adhere to the position that houses are used for living, not for speculation, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.

although the wording of the country's property market has not changed greatly, and the "policy for the city" has been removed, we think the significance is very clear: in the second half of the year, the probability of deregulation is zero, and when the road of investment speculation is blocked, there is no accident, and the probability of house prices will not rise. I just need to be at ease now.

in our view, it is no accident that the Politburo meeting in the middle of this year once again "decided" to mention real estate. On the one hand, the heat of the property market in most first-and second-tier cities exceeded expectations in the second quarter of the first half of the year, which violated the "three stabilities" theme set by the state at the beginning of the year, especially in Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Chengdu and other places. On the other hand, in fact, as early as a few days ago, there was a signal that the regulation of the property market should be "tightened"-the symposium held by high-level officials exclusively for real estate has laid the foundation for the sudden change of the property market.

in fact, the trend of the property market in the second half of 22 was finalized at the "real estate symposium between senior management and responsible persons of 1 cities" a few days ago (July 24th)-always tighten the string of real estate regulation and control, and unswervingly push forward the implementation of a long-term mechanism; We must fully implement the main responsibility of the city government; Prevent funds from flowing into the real estate market in violation of regulations; Focus on solving the housing problems of urban new citizens and young people.

to sum up, the regulation is not loose, and the capital inflow is strictly controlled. The central government is even "hinting" that all localities should weigh the balance between stabilizing housing prices and economic development, that is, whether they want "their jobs" or economic development.

In all fairness, in order to help those who just need a house, the state is serious this time: in the critical period of China's economic recovery and development, the state clearly does not rely on real estate, and it is the first time to put forward the idea of "focusing on solving the housing problem of urban new citizens and young people". Undoubtedly, this time, it is deployed from the first perspective of helping hundreds of millions of people just need to solve their housing problems.

in p>216, "live in a house without speculation" was first put forward; In 219, the central government not only made it clear that "housing without speculation" is a long-term goal, but also first mentioned that "real estate will no longer be used as a means to stimulate economic development in the short term"; Even in the special year of 22, the word "housing and not speculation" has repeatedly appeared in authoritative meetings, central bank reports, etc., and the signal transmitted is clear: the state has always paid more attention to the effective regulation of real estate.

In addition, in the second half of the year, just need to buy a house, three obvious good news came

The first good news, the policy increased support for just need to buy a house.

both the "high-rise real estate forum" on July 24th and the Politburo meeting on July 3th made it clear that "the future well-being of people's livelihood (just buying a house) is more important than economic development".

This is equivalent to telling everyone that the future economic development will no longer rely on real estate speculation, which means that a new round of "curbing real estate investment speculation" will accelerate. Again, as long as the state's regulatory attitude against investment speculation is not reversed, the result of real estate returning to the origin of residence can be expected. In particular, the weakening of the property of real estate investment has long declared the complete end of the era of real estate speculation and making money for all. Maintaining a steady containment and crackdown on investment speculation is the guarantee for the gradual purification of the real estate market, which is undoubtedly a very significant benefit for those who have not yet bought a house and intend to buy one. The second good news, the profit-making of real estate enterprises-the strength of real estate enterprises to sell houses at discounted prices in the second half of the year is unprecedented, and the best time to buy a house is now.

how to understand this? The official mentioned that "it is necessary to implement the prudent management system of real estate finance, stabilize the stock, strictly control the increment, and prevent funds from flowing into the real estate market in violation of regulations." The meaning is clear: the control of real estate inflows will continue to increase in the second half of the year, especially in cities that are more active in the first half of the year. Who is most affected by controlling funds? The answer is obvious, that is, developers who lack money and food, especially a group of housing enterprises in third-and fourth-tier cities that are difficult and expensive to borrow money. In the second half of the year, stricter capital control and worse financing environment mean that it is more difficult for developers to raise funds, and many housing enterprises are bound to be ready to sell their houses at a reduced price. After all, at present, apart from saving themselves at a reduced price, developers have no second choice. Mercenary developers can take the route of selling houses at reduced prices, and the natural benefit is the immediate need to buy a house.

the third good news is that the crackdown on real estate speculation has intensified, which means that the advantages of picking up leaks, choosing houses and bargaining in the second half of the year have been strengthened.

In just over half a month, more than 1 cities such as Shenzhen, Dongguan, Nanjing, Ningbo, Hangzhou and Zhengzhou have cracked down on investment speculation, and the usual channels of fake divorce, fake settlement and fake talents for real estate speculators have been blocked.

after August, will more cities join the regulation? The answer is yes. The chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate said that in the first half of the year, among the 7 major large and medium-sized cities announced by the Bureau of Statistics, the cities with rising new and second-hand houses will be afraid to usher in the regulation of cracking down on investment speculation. To some extent, this not only purifies the market, but also fulfills the just-needed interests.

finally, I would like to repeat that although real estate has abused us countless times, we have to admit that it is the era of buying a house that we just need-the support of policies, the crackdown on real estate speculation and the profit-making of real estate enterprises are all showing kindness to those who just need to buy a house.