High-tech lithium battery: In 2024, the price of lithium carbonate will drop below 400,000 yuan.

165438+1October 14. Zhang, Chairman of Hi-Tech Lithium Battery, said at the forum that the price of lithium carbonate is expected to remain above 520,000 yuan in the first half of 2023. There is a high probability in the second half of the year, maintaining 450,000 yuan/above. In 2024, it will drop to less than 400,000 without any suspense.

Related report: The outbreak of lithium battery industry can't be suppressed? Suining, the "Lithium Capital", focuses on resource segmentation industry and accelerates "chain repair"

At present, the upstream resources of the lithium battery industry chain have skyrocketed. Relying on Tianqi Lithium Industry (002466. SZ) and Shengxin Lithium Energy (002240. SZ) Mastering lithium resources, Suining City, Sichuan Province is accelerating the improvement of the lithium battery industry chain, and the proportion of the output value of the lithium battery industry and its contribution to the economy are constantly improving. In addition, the reporter of Cailian Association learned from Suining Economic and Information Bureau that relying on the strategic cooperation with lithium resources such as Ganzi Prefecture, Suining is planning to build Tianqi green low-carbon industrial park, with the planning time of 2022 -2030.

It is reported that Suining has gathered 55 lithium battery enterprises, including Tianqi Lithium Industry, Shengxin Lithium Energy and Longpan Technology (603906. SH), Fulin Seiko (300432. SZ), Sichuan Yuneng, Honeycomb Energy and other leading enterprises, and have initially formed lithium resource development, lithium material aggregation, lithium terminal application and lithium battery recycling.

Liu Yanlong, Secretary-General of China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association, said at the 2022 China (Suining) International Lithium Industry Conference and the International Exchange Conference on New Energy Vehicles and Power Batteries held on 10: "Suining, as the core area of Chengdu-Chongqing Twin Cities and the gateway hub of Chengdu-Chongqing region, has unique advantages in basic lithium salt industry, relying on key enterprise projects such as Tianqi Lithium Industry and Sichuan Yuneng.

"Up-extension and down-extension"-The industrial chain of lithium battery comes from grasping lithium resources.

As a "hot commodity" in the lithium battery industry chain, according to the data of Shanghai Steel Union, as of June165438+1October 1 1, the price of electric carbon has reached 595,000 yuan/ton, and Suining City, Sichuan Province is occupied by Tianqi Lithium Industry and Shengxin Lithium Industry, a leading lithium salt company in China.

According to the data of Suining Economic and Information Bureau (hereinafter referred to as "Economic and Information Bureau"), up to now, Suining can supply 54,000 tons of basic lithium salt every year, accounting for 10.2% of the global demand. Relying on Tianqi Lithium Industry and Shengxin Lithium Energy, the amount of lithium resources (equivalent to lithium carbonate)17.9 million tons, accounting for about 20% of the world. Suining lithium mine has advantages in resources and materials in China.

Diaz, Consul General of the Consulate General of Chile in Chengdu, said at the meeting that Suining has become the largest trading partner for the development of lithium resources in Chile, and Chile is the country where SQM, a salt lake giant, is located.

Lu, secretary of the Party Committee of Suining Economic and Information Bureau, told Cailian that up to now, Tianqi Lithium Industry and Shengxin Lithium Energy's basic lithium salt production capacity in Suining is 75,000 tons, and the capacity of projects under construction is 50,000 tons, of which Tianqi Lithium Industry's 20,000-ton lithium carbonate project is under construction and is expected to be completed in July next year. The city plans to produce 200,000 tons by 2025, accounting for 65,438+03% of the global demand for lithium salt.

For enterprises that have landed in Suining lithium battery industry chain, lithium salt can be described as "within reach" in Suining. "At present, this project (which refers to the project of Tianqi Lithium Industry with an annual output of 20,000 tons of lithium carbonate) will be put into production next year, mainly because of nearby facilities." Lu said to him:

Suining city not only relies on enterprises to master lithium resources, but also binds lithium resources with cities such as Ganzi Prefecture in Sichuan. The Tenth Five-Year Development Plan of Lithium Industry in Suining City shows that Suining has established strategic cooperative relations with Ganzi Prefecture, Aba Prefecture and Golmud City in Qinghai Province, and has gathered enterprise groups represented by Tianqi Lithium Industry.

In addition, Yang Wenbin, deputy secretary of Anju District Committee and district head, mentioned in this meeting that Anju District is planning to build Tianqi Green Low-carbon Industrial Park with a total investment of 50 billion yuan, mainly undertaking lithium battery projects, with an available land area of more than 4,000 mu and a reserved land area of more than 4,500 mu for lithium battery industry development.

The reporter of Cailian Association further learned from Suining Economic and Information Bureau that the plan is currently in its infancy and the planning time is 2022 -2030. Lu said: "At present, Tianqi Green Low-carbon Industrial Park, which Suining has accelerated to build, relies on the cooperation of Tianqi Lithium Industry in Ganzi Prefecture to transform the lithium resources of Suining."

Lu further said that compared with foreign lithium mines, such as Australia's grade is around 2.2%, Ganzi and Aba's mines are around 1.2%- 1.4%, and the ore content is relatively low, but the price of lithium carbonate is soaring and the cost is increasing. Considering the international market and national strategic security, the development and exploration of lithium resources in China need to be started as soon as possible.

"At present, the research of the provincial party committee and government, including the meetings of the National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, will mention that it is necessary to speed up the development of domestic lithium resources, including Tianqi lithium industry, and actively respond to some strategic cooperation and promotion at the government level carried out by Suining and Ganzi Prefecture."

Accelerate "chain repair"-the output value of lithium battery industry chain will rise next year.

According to the Implementation Plan of Building the Capital of Lithium Battery in Suining City and the Tenth Five-Year Development Plan of the Lithium Battery Industry in Suining City, Suining has established three industrial development paths around the overall development goal of "Capital of Lithium Battery", namely, "leading the world in the production of key materials in the upstream, first-class battery products in the midstream, and building an important terminal application base of lithium battery in China".

Among them, the key materials in the upstream of Suining lithium battery industry chain are Tianqi lithium industry and Shengxin lithium energy. Driven by Sichuan Yuneng, Fulin Seiko and Longpan Technology, the cathode material in the middle reaches has formed the largest lithium ferrous phosphate production base in the world. The downstream battery terminal cellular energy 20Gwh project has been completed and put into operation, which has promoted the construction of 39Gwh project in Liye base and accelerated the layout and "chain compensation" in sub-industries.

"Now cathode materials pay more attention to transformation and upgrading, quality improvement and efficiency improvement. The next development of Suining lithium battery industry is more "chain repair" work. For example, we still have shortcomings in the layout of diaphragm and electrolyte, and brand-name terminal battery projects are still relatively lacking. " Lu said to him:

Lu told Cailian that the current output value of Suining lithium battery industry chain is 50 billion yuan, and it is estimated that the industrial output value of the whole city will reach 654.38+07 billion yuan this year, accounting for nearly 30% of the lithium battery industry chain. He went on to say that based on more lithium battery projects put into production this year, the proportion of output value will be higher next year.

"Many projects have been put into production this year. For example, Honeycomb Energy will have a rapid climbing process from 10. Fulin New Energy Phase II and Sichuan Lithium Source Phase II were also put into production from September to 10. I believe that the output value will accelerate next year. " Lu said to him:

The above-mentioned Fulin New Energy is a subsidiary of Fulin Seiko, and its 80,000-ton Shehong Lithium Ferrophosphate Phase II project was officially put into production in September, with a total production capacity of140,000 tons. The second phase of Sichuan lithium source lithium ferrous phosphate production line of Longpan Technology Suining subsidiary was completed and put into operation at the end of September this year, with a total production capacity of 85,000 tons.

According to the data of Suining Economic and Information Bureau, the production capacity of Suining lithium ferrous phosphate cathode material is 400,000 tons, and it will reach 800,000 tons in 2025, which can support 400GWh batteries. The production capacity of cathode materials under construction is 654.38+10,000 tons, and it will reach 200,000 tons in 2025, which is twice the current production capacity and can match 250GWh batteries.

According to the information of the Municipal Economic and Information Bureau, 30% of Suining's main products, lithium carbonate, are supplied to Chengdu and Chongqing, 35% to other parts of China and 35% to foreign countries, and 70% of lithium ferrous phosphate is supplied to Sichuan production bases such as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd., BYD, AVIC lithium battery and Honeycomb Energy. After Tianqi Lithium Industry has expanded its capacity by 20Gwh tons and Honeycomb Energy has been fully completed and put into production, the supporting level of local lithium battery projects will be greatly improved. (Source: Cailian)