The hegemony of Yili and Mengniu has been challenged.

Low-temperature milk, mainly fresh, is detonating a new round of market competition.

As we all know, the domestic milk market has formed a duopoly pattern of "Yili" and "Mengniu". By 2020, the market share of Yili normal temperature milk is as high as 38.6%, and that of Mengniu is 28%, both of which are close to 67% in the milk market. However, the performance of these two giants in the low-temperature milk market is not satisfactory.

In the new round of competition in the low-temperature milk market, it is not Yili and Mengniu, nor Guangming, an old dairy company with low-temperature milk, but a upstart who has just entered the market for more than ten years. Why? Before revealing the answer, we need to be clear about several questions:

1. Why is it a low-temperature milk market?

2. What does the new dairy industry rely on?

3. What are the chances of its successful breakthrough in the competition with industry leaders?

1

Why is the low-temperature milk market?

In fact, there are several key points for the new dairy industry to choose to cut into the dairy market from low-temperature milk:

The first point: the current market consumption concept is changing. In the past, most of the milk drinks consumers chose for nutritional supplement were normal temperature milk, because normal temperature milk not only has nutrition, but also has a long shelf life and is easy to store. However, with the improvement of consumers' nutritional requirements, low-temperature milk, mainly fresh milk, is constantly grabbing the market with normal-temperature milk.

In normal temperature milk, harmful bacteria in raw milk, including vitamins and other elements, will also be killed because of the need to adopt the ultra-high temperature sterilization method of 135- 152, which will directly lead to the loss of nutrients in normal temperature milk. On the contrary, fresh milk has higher preservation requirements and shorter aging time than normal temperature milk, but pasteurization can well retain the nutritional value of milk. At the same time, because the time from production to sales is very short, the taste of milk will be preserved to the maximum extent.

In the new era of consumption upgrading, young people are more likely to accept new things, but they also have higher pursuits for new things. The appearance of fresh milk not only brings higher nutritional value to consumers, but also strengthens consumers' consumption experience of milk, which is obviously more in line with the consumption pattern of the new era.

The second point: the domestic fresh milk market is huge. Data show that the market share of Canadian, British, American and Japanese pasteurized fresh milk is 99%, 99.5%, 99.7% and 99.3% respectively, while the market share of China is less than 25%.

Wang Dingmian, a dairy expert, once said: In recent years, the fresh milk market has been on the rise, and there is a large room for development, but its proportion in the whole liquid milk market is still low. At present, the market sales volume is about 3 million tons, and the market capacity can be doubled to 5-6 million tons in five to six years, and it is expected to reach 20 million tons in the future, so there is still a lot of room for growth in the future.

Obviously, after the normal temperature milk market is saturated, the focus of the market has shifted from normal temperature milk to low temperature milk, and the overall growth rate of the normal temperature milk market has slowed down. Euromonitor data shows that during the five years from 20 15 to 20 19, the sales of normal temperature milk increased from 80 billion yuan to 94.2 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of only 3.3%, and the proportion of normal temperature milk market sales also decreased from 78.35% to 73.29%. Under the influence of last year's epidemic, the market scale of normal temperature milk has shrunk again.

The decline of the normal temperature milk market is not disappearing, but being gradually eroded by the low temperature milk market. The data show that from 20 15 to 20 19, the market scale of low-temperature milk increased from 23.4 billion yuan to 36 10 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 54.27% and a compound annual growth rate of 9%.

The CAGR of normal temperature milk market is only 3.3%, while that of low temperature milk is 9%. Obviously, the change of market increment directly feeds back the demand and consumption trend of consumers, and also reveals the future industrial trend and the direction that dairy enterprises need to focus on in the future.

The third point: the low-temperature fresh milk market is still a blue ocean market. All major dairy enterprises are in the initial stage of marching into the low-temperature fresh milk market, but limited by the hard technical conditions required for the production and preservation of low-temperature fresh milk, no dairy enterprise can expand unscrupulously. Low-temperature milk is different from normal-temperature milk, because the shelf life of low-temperature milk is short, and the factory can not intensively cover all areas, so it can only be built according to the milk source. However, it has also become a moat for regional dairy enterprises. Even industry leaders such as Yili and Mengniu cannot occupy the market by their own volume.

In the current low-temperature milk market, although the major dairy companies have frequently acted, there is no real oligarchy. According to statistics, by 2020, the market share of Yili's low-temperature milk business will be 14.8%, Mengniu will only be 1 1.2%, and Bright Dairy will be 15%, ranking first for the time being. As a new brand, the new dairy industry has reached 6% in the low-temperature milk market, catching up with Mengniu.

The market share of 6% seems small, but it has been almost the same since its establishment. Mengniu Dairy was established in 1999, which lasted more than 2 1 year, while New Dairy was formally established in 2006, which lasted more than 14 years. According to the comparison of time and market share, there is not much difference between the two, and this does not consider brand awareness and corporate background.

2

Another way:

What does the new dairy industry rely on?

Speaking of the new dairy industry, most people may not be familiar with it, but New Hope must have heard of it. The new dairy industry is backed by New Hope Group. The new dairy industry was officially listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange on1October 25th, 20 19+65438. Compared with established dairy enterprises such as Yili and Mengniu, the industrial background may be relatively weak, but the capital strength is definitely not weak, which other dairy enterprises do not have. At the same time, the revenue of the new dairy industry itself is not bad.

According to the financial report, in the first half of 200210, the new dairy industry realized an operating income of 3160,000 yuan, up by 68.85% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to the mother1460,000 yuan, up by 90.58% year-on-year. Among them, the income of new dairy liquid milk business reached 3.975 billion yuan, up 68% year-on-year, accounting for 92. 1 1% of the total income. The liquid milk business with low-temperature fresh milk as the main body promotes the company's overall income to achieve high growth.

The rapid development and income generation of the new dairy industry benefited from inheriting the new hope expansion model, which provided a mature road for its own development through mergers and acquisitions.

As we all know, once the new hope was only a small agricultural company in Sichuan, but it quickly grew into one of the best feed giants in China with the strategy of merger and expansion, with a market value of over 100 billion. It took only 14 years to realize these changes. According to statistics, 37 of the more than 50 feed enterprises owned by New Hope were acquired through mergers and acquisitions, and now the new dairy industry is repeating the path that New Hope once took: mergers and acquisitions.

Since 200 1 acquired 60% shares of Sichuan Yangping Dairy for 42 million yuan, it has discovered the new hope of dairy industry development space and profit return, and officially launched its layout in dairy industry. In 2002, New Hope successively acquired many local dairy enterprises, such as Bai Di in Anhui, Huaxi in Sichuan, Shuangfeng in Hangzhou, Tianxiang in Hebei, Qinpai in Qingdao, Diequan in Yunnan and Xinwei Soybean Milk Group in Changchun. In 2003, New Hope also acquired Lan Xue Dairy, which laid a solid foundation for its formal entry into the dairy market.

After the new dairy industry was formally established, its expansion through mergers and acquisitions has not been left behind. In the following 14 year, New Dairy successively acquired many regional dairy enterprises such as Nanshan in Hunan, Shuangxi, Sanmu in Xichang, Luyuan in Asahi, Shandong and Tianyou in Chongqing. By last year, the company planned to acquire Huanmei Dairy for 17. 165438+ billion yuan.

Successive acquisitions not only expanded the industrial scale of the new dairy industry, but also directly solved two major problems that the company must face to seize the low-temperature fresh milk market:

On the one hand, it is the recognition of the company's products in the regional market, that is, the brand.

When a new brand is promoted in a new market, it will inevitably go through the process of product recognition by consumers in the region, which directly determines the future market of the product, and the local dairy enterprises acquired by the new dairy industry are all well-known brands in the region.

Among them, Huaxi and Yangping are famous brand products in Sichuan Province and won famous trademarks in Sichuan Province. Lan Xue Milk is the largest liquid milk producer in Yunnan Province, Bai Di is the largest dairy product producer in Anhui Province, and Qinpai is a local liquid milk star in Qingdao. Shuangfeng, Weipin, Tianxiang, Diequan and Sanmu are also well-known brands in their respective regions, which is undoubtedly a new dairy industry.

In terms of product quality, the new dairy industry adopted the industry-leading pasteurization temperature of 72 degrees Celsius, effectively retaining the active nutrients in fresh milk, and adopted the self-developed 3D embedding technology and internationally advanced centrifugal sterilization technology to achieve the protein content of 3.6 grams per 100 grams of milk. You know, even the current low-temperature milk leader Bright Dairy has a protein content of 3.6 grams per 100 grams, while Yili and Mengniu, as the leading dairy enterprises, have a protein content of only 3.6 grams per 100 grams.

It is not difficult to see that, in terms of fresh milk, the advantages of local brands and nutritional content of new dairy products can directly and effectively reduce the promotion links when new dairy products cut into the market. With the influence of the original brand and the excellent quality of the products, the income can be directly realized.

On the other hand, it is the advantage of milk source: avoiding the industry leader and forming a supplement in the market.

As we all know, the core of low-temperature milk products with fresh milk is "freshness", which determines that the low-temperature milk market must be close to the milk source. At the same time, dairy enterprises must have complete pasture resources, production plants, distribution channels and refrigerated supply chain transportation, so as to ensure the quality of the company's products. After the acquisition of 46 holding subsidiaries, New Dairy owns 15 major dairy brands and 16 dairy processing plants.

Distribution map of milk source in emerging dairy industry

Geographically, the self-owned pastures of the new dairy industry are mainly concentrated in the central and western regions and eastern China, mostly small and medium-sized pastures, and the overall milk source belt extends from the central and western regions to the north. Among them, Ningxia is located in the golden zone of dairy farming, which is an excellent milk source with sufficient milk supply.

Mengniu milk source distribution map

Distribution map of Yili milk source

The milk sources of Mengniu Dairy are mainly distributed in the northeast, and Yili's own milk sources are mainly distributed in the central and northern parts, namely, the three golden milk source belts, the North China milk source belt, the East China milk source belt and the South China milk source belt. The distribution of the two major milk sources is highly coincident and more concentrated.

Compared with the concentration of milk sources of Yili and Mengniu, the new dairy industry is more inclined to the central and western regions and eastern China, so the production and sales of its products will also be carried out around the cities in the central and western regions and eastern China, which means that the future products of the new dairy industry will inevitably sink to the third-and fourth-tier cities, supplementing the regional markets occupied by Mengniu and Yili while developing the third-and fourth-tier cities, thus forming differentiated competition in the region.

Population density distribution map in 2020

It is worth noting that the distribution of milk sources in the new dairy industry is highly coincident with the densely populated areas in China. That is to say, with milk source as the center, the new dairy industry can cover the whole East China and the central and western regions in a large area, thus making full use of the demographic dividend to open the low-temperature milk market, especially in the central and western regions rarely covered by Yili and Mengniu, and the market growth space of the new dairy industry is huge.

Of course, the coverage area is inseparable from the transportation technology of enterprises. According to the disclosure of new dairy industry, the company's low-temperature product logistics has realized the whole cold chain distribution, realizing the full coverage of every kilometer from the factory to the terminal store, and the whole journey takes only 6 hours, fully considering the fast and advantageous service experience for consumers.

Strategically, the new dairy industry, as a new force of regional dairy enterprises, gives full play to the advantages of regional dairy enterprises in the field of low-temperature milk through the "fresh strategy". One is to cut into the market with low-temperature milk and form differentiated competition with the duopoly market of normal-temperature milk of Yili and Mengniu. The other is that the market is concentrated in the northwest and central regions, which fills the gap of the two major dairy enterprises in the region and forms regional differentiated competition. Judging from these two competitive strategies, the new dairy industry can be said to have truly and effectively realized the maximization of market competitive interests.

three

Can the new dairy industry break the duopoly?

In the future, with the continuous upgrading of consumption, consumers' requirements for health and nutrition will continue to increase. Low-temperature milk and its products will replace normal-temperature milk as the mainstream of dairy products market, and the quality advantages of low-temperature milk will be recognized by more and more consumers. As one of the three major dairy enterprises in the field of low-temperature milk, the new dairy industry undoubtedly has more advantages in the field of low-temperature milk.

First of all, unlike other low-temperature dairy enterprises, New Hope Dairy is backed by New Hope Group, and it has strong enough accumulation in both capital and development experience. Moreover, New Hope Group, as the leader of the feed industry, can purchase raw materials through the self-sufficiency of the group, which is very important for its livestock companies and helps the company to realize the closed loop of the industrial chain.

Secondly, as the only non-cyclical industry among the four major industries of New Hope Group, the importance of new dairy industry to the Group is also rising. Judging from the financial data, New Hope Dairy is a stable profit creator in the industrial sector of New Hope Group. In the first half of the year, the net profit of the parent company was-3410.50 billion yuan, and before that, New Hope Dairy had been profitable for New Hope for seven consecutive years. Under such circumstances, New Hope will make profits for the new dairy industry in the future.

Moreover, with the strategy of coordinated development of multi-enterprise brands and product brands, New Dairy has taken the lead in making a good layout in the regional low-temperature milk market. In the M&A strategy, the dairy enterprise selected by the new dairy industry must be one of the best local well-known brands. In the case of independent milk sources, the branding and growth of the new dairy industry in the regional low-temperature milk market will be maximized.

It is not difficult to draw a conclusion that the new dairy industry will be able to achieve new breakthroughs in the field of low-temperature milk in the future, and this may also be a major opportunity to break through the duopoly pattern of the industry.