Behind the development of the three-child birth policy

Behind the development of the three-child policy

Behind the development of the three-child policy. The three-child policy was both expected and unexpected. Population experts have put forward many policy suggestions in the past, believing that the sooner and earlier the family planning policy is relaxed, the better. The country's response to this is very fast. Let’s take a look at the reasons behind the development of the three-child birth policy. Behind the development of the three-child policy 1

On May 31, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held a meeting. The biggest highlight of this meeting was the proposal of the "three-child" policy.

Yan Yuejin, Research Director of the E-House Research Institute Think Tank Center, said that the three-child policy will inevitably involve housing issues. Small apartments such as 90 square meters are far from enough. Even 120 square meters The house type is still not enough, because the house type is not just a simple solution to problems such as children's accommodation, but some functional rooms must also be added. Therefore, it is expected that the traditional house type classification pattern of “small houses below 90 square meters, medium houses between 90 and 144 square meters, and large houses above 144 square meters” will change. This is obviously good for some real estate companies that focus on large apartments. During this process, some financial loan policies, tax policies, etc. will also change, which will form a series of adjustments. Third, the population policy is bound to affect related industries, including the housing industry, construction industry, daycare industry, home furnishing industry, education industry, etc., which will be beneficial, and will naturally have a more obvious impact on the A-share market. Behind the development of the three-child policy 2

Behind the three-child policy: the natural growth rate has been declining

On May 11, the results of my country’s seventh national census were announced.

Data show that the national population in 2020 is 1,411.78 million, an increase of 72.06 million, or 5.38%, compared with 1,339.72 million in 2010 (sixth national census data) , the average annual growth rate was 0.53%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points from the average annual growth rate of 0.57% from 2000 to 2010. Data show that my country’s population has maintained a low-speed growth trend for the past 10 years.

Although compared with the sixth census data, the average growth rate of my country’s population in the past 10 years has not dropped much, data in recent years show that my country’s birth rate is declining rapidly. According to the China Statistical Yearbook, in 2017, my country’s birth rate was still 12.43 ‰. This number has dropped to 10.48 ‰ in 2019.

Yang Ge pointed out that the background of the implementation of the policy that a couple can have three children is closely related to the seventh census data. Data show that although the total population has continued to grow at a low rate in the past 10 years, compared with the population data of the sixth census, the number of births in the seventh census has declined significantly, and the corresponding downward trend in the fertility rate is also very obvious.

According to the seventh national census data, the total fertility rate of women of childbearing age in my country in 2020 was 1.3, which is already at a low level.

The total fertility rate refers to the average number of children per woman during the childbearing age of women in the country or region. Generally speaking, if the total fertility rate is less than 2.1, the newborn population is not enough to make up for the births. The number of women and their partners means that there will be a reduction in population replacement over generations.

At the same time, another important time point - the time point when China's total population reaches negative growth, may also come sooner due to the declining birth rate. According to the China Statistical Yearbook, my country's natural population growth rate has dropped rapidly, from 8.18 ‰ in 1999 to 3.34 ‰ in 2019. Currently, many cities are facing negative natural population growth.

Data source: China Statistical Yearbook Unit: ‰

Judging from the current population increase, we can find that due to the decline in fertility, the previous The predicted negative population growth node (around 2027) may come earlier. Therefore, liberalizing the fertility policy to allow more families with childbearing needs to have children is a means to avoid premature negative population growth. "Yang Ge said.

Previously, Zhai Zhenwu, a professor at the Population and Development Research Center of Renmin University of China, released by the National Bureau of Statistics, interpreted the seventh national census bulletin and pointed out that China’s period of rapid or even ultra-high-speed population growth has gradually moved away. , the phase of inertial population growth is coming to an end, and the era of zero or even negative population growth is gradually approaching. The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is expected to be the last development planning period in the 21st century with completely positive population growth, and by the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, we will usher in an "inflection point" in China's total population.

He stated in the article that entering an era of zero or even negative population growth is a "big change unseen in a century" that China is facing in the population field, and it is a precursor to the long-term balanced development of the population that needs attention. Sexual issues have a profound impact on the labor supply and consumer demand for high-quality development.

What impact will the liberalization of three-child birth have?

The meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China pointed out that further optimizing the fertility policy and implementing the policy that a couple can have three children and supporting supporting measures will be conducive to improving my country's population structure and implementing an active response to population aging. National strategy to maintain my country’s human resource endowment advantages.

Yang Ge believes that, first of all, from the perspective of population aging, the seventh census data shows that the proportion of my country’s population over 65 years old has reached 13.5%, which is higher than previously estimated. The acceleration of the aging process has exceeded everyone’s expectations. If we want to slow down the aging process, increasing the fertility rate is currently the most effective way to do it.

Secondly, from the perspective of my country’s human resource endowment, my country is still the most populous country in the world, and its population size advantage has always been an important force for my country’s economic growth. Especially under the current severe situation of international trade, my country's population size advantage is an important aspect for my country to achieve stable and sustainable economic growth through dual cycles.

Zeng Yuping, deputy director of the Office of the Seventh National Census Leading Group of the State Council and chief statistician of the National Bureau of Statistics, pointed out at the press conference on the main data results of the seventh national census that the seventh national census and Compared with the sixth national census, that is, compared with 2010, the working-age population aged 16 to 59 decreased by more than 40 million. However, it should be noted that the total size of the working-age population is still large, reaching 880 million people, labor resources are still abundant, and the demographic dividend still exists, providing important support for the sustained and healthy development of the economy and society.

In this context, the three-child policy was introduced.

Yang Ge said that at present, it is hard to say whether there will be a "three-child dividend" similar to the small peak of births after the relaxation of the two-child policy. Because according to previous fertility intention surveys, the overall proportion of families willing to have three children is very small. Therefore, the connection of some relevant social and economic policies is needed to promote fertility.

The meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasized that party committees and governments at all levels must strengthen overall planning, policy coordination and work implementation, organize the implementation of the three-child birth policy in accordance with the law, and promote the matching of birth policy and related economic and social policies Connect and improve the population impact assessment mechanism of major economic and social policies.

It is necessary to consider marriage, childbirth, parenting, and education as a whole, strengthen education and guidance on marriage, love, and family values ??among young people of marriageable age, control bad social habits such as bad marriage habits and sky-high betrothal gifts, and improve the level of eugenics and postnatal care services. Develop an inclusive child care service system, promote educational equity and the supply of high-quality educational resources, and reduce family education expenses.

It is necessary to improve the maternity leave and maternity insurance system, strengthen taxation, housing and other support policies, and protect the legitimate rights and interests of women in employment. For one-child families before the adjustment of the comprehensive two-child policy and rural families with two children under family planning, the existing incentive and support systems and preferential policies must continue to be implemented.

It is necessary to establish and improve a comprehensive support and security system for families with special family planning needs, improve the support and care mechanism led by the government and participated by social organizations, and safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of family planning families. It is necessary to deepen research on the national medium- and long-term population development strategies and regional population development plans to promote long-term balanced development of the population.

Yang Ge pointed out that promoting the matching of fertility policies and related economic and social policies has a wide coverage, because improving the fertility rate is a systematic project, from falling in love to getting married and starting a family, to motherhood and childbirth. From the early stage to the growth of children, the entire process requires a comprehensive policy support system, so relevant supporting policies also need to be gradually constructed.

Yang Ge believes that the current liberalization of the three-child policy is the starting point of the policy and a policy signal. In the future, relevant supporting policies, including women’s labor rights, maternal and child health care, and inclusive A childcare service system, healthy marriage and love education and guidance, etc., will be gradually established.

The three-child policy needs better supporting measures

The long-awaited three-child policy was finally officially launched on May 31. As the trend of population aging becomes increasingly severe, how to effectively boost the fertility rate may become an unavoidable social issue for the next two or three generations of Chinese people. The launch of the three-child policy at this time can be said to be a natural response.

What we should also realize is that, just as the smooth implementation of any social policy requires supporting measures, after the three-child policy is launched, society should actively consider providing necessary and powerful support for parents who are willing to continue having children. support.

So what supporting measures does society need to prepare? We can roughly sort it out based on summarizing experience. From the perspective of family policy, the reason why couples' fertility wishes can be transformed into reproductive behavior is not only influenced by cultural traditions, but also more importantly in a modern society is the cost-benefit consideration of fertility behavior. This mainly includes the impact on the mother's career and the cost of raising a child after the birth. As we all know, in the years after the introduction of the "universal two-child policy", the fertility rate briefly increased, but then quickly fell back, and has not yet reached the original policy goal. The reasons for this, whether it is public opinion or academic research, all point to work pressure and cost of living. Therefore, the proposal of supporting measures must directly correspond to these considerations and influencing factors.

The first is the issue of who will bear the cost of childbirth. Particular attention needs to be paid to the employment discrimination that maternity leave brings to women. Needless to say, some companies "prefer boys over girls" when recruiting. It has been observed that this situation has increased after the "universal second-child policy". Some young women who are unmarried and have no children are likely to be turned away from job applications because of this consideration. The consideration of many companies is: if they recruit a female employee who is unmarried and has no children, and she gives birth to two children within a three-year contract, not counting the inconveniences during the pregnancy, and the maternity leave added together, she may be able to take a year off. Who will work during this period? To bear it? So working backwards, simply waiting for them to give birth before hiring them has become a realistic choice for HR in many companies. This reality has also affected the willingness to have children to a certain extent, and in reality has forced some "grey clauses" that require female employees to promise not to have children during the contract period.

The root of this phenomenon is the issue of who should bear the cost of childbirth. In a market economy, society should no longer imagine that problems can be completely solved by calling for corporate social responsibility. Our maternity insurance and maternity leave systems actually require companies to pay for the childbirth of individual employees, but employment discrimination against female employees shows that many companies want to transfer this cost back to the families of their employees. It is precisely the "skipping" of childbirth costs by both labor and management that makes some young parents trapped in the anxiety and entanglement between childbirth and employment. In fact, most societies that implement social insurance systems do not have maternity insurance. Especially in some countries with low fertility rates, the government in order to encourage childbirth has borne the cost of maternity leave from the government. Financial payment for childbearing costs should be the most basic supporting measure of the three-child policy.

The second is the issue of child care. Many people use the phrase "one pregnancy makes you stupid for three years" to describe the low work efficiency of young mothers who have just given birth to a child, but they do not seriously think about the responsibilities that society should bear: it is precisely because young children need care, but society does not lend a helping hand, so let Mom is too busy. Child care often has two stages: in the infant and toddler stage of 0-3 years old, many families solve the parenting problem by letting the elderly take care of the children; in the preschool stage of 4-6 years old, children usually go to kindergarten, but not Public kindergartens in several cities have problems such as insufficient places. Many working families have no choice but to send their children to more expensive private kindergartens.

From the perspective of supporting measures, we should first ensure that the option of elderly people taking care of children is not affected by policy reforms. Here we should pay attention to the reform of delayed retirement - many young couples rely on their grandmothers or grandmothers in their fifties who have just retired to take care of their children. If these grandmothers delay their retirement until after the age of sixty, not only will their children miss their prime childbearing years, but they may not have enough energy to take care of their children. Of course, this has less of an impact if you're talking about a third child. Secondly, there is the issue of whether compulsory education can be extended to the preschool stage. For example, either a large number of private kindergartens can be publicized and the preschool children can be admitted at public prices; or a "money follows the person" approach can be used, allowing parents to enroll their children in daycare based on their birth certificates, and the state pays for the basic daycare fees. .

The third is the issue of equal educational opportunities. Although our country has a compulsory education law, many families believe that the heaviest burden in raising a child is the cost of education. The root cause of this problem is that there is a certain gap in teaching resources between high-end private schools and public primary and secondary schools. In many coastal cities, a relatively high proportion of graduates from high-end private junior high schools are often able to get into prestigious public high schools and then go on to good universities. In some cities with large enrollments in high-end private schools, due to the 1:1 "vocational-to-pupil ratio" restriction, some junior high school graduates from public schools may only be able to find employment in secondary schools. This reality will obviously make many working-class families feel frustrated. .

The solution is actually clear, which is to break the monopoly of high-end private schools. With reference to international experience, a limit range for admission rates between high-end private schools and public schools should be set. When the gap between the enrollment rates of public and private schools widens, the government should increase investment in resources until the enrollment rate of public schools returns to a range acceptable to the public.

The supporting measures in the above three aspects seem to be short-term, medium-term and long-term respectively. However, in terms of the time difference between the implementation of a measure and the manifestation of its effect, they do not leave much for the entire society. room for hesitation. If these measures can be formulated and introduced as soon as possible, society should be able to positively anticipate that the three-child policy will maximize its effectiveness.