Observation of 20 low-carbon pilot cities: Beishangguangshen and Shenzhen are expected to take the lead in achieving the peak of carbon dioxide emissions, and the absolute amount of conditional carbon

Observation of 20 low-carbon pilot cities: Beishangguangshen and Shenzhen are expected to take the lead in achieving the peak of carbon dioxide emissions, and the absolute amount of conditional carbon emissions in 15 cities will decrease. Cities are the main contributors to energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, and they are also important subjects to carry out carbon emission reduction actions and implement low-carbon development strategies.

The fifth assessment report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and related studies show that urban economy accounts for about 80% of the global GDP, its energy consumption accounts for about 67%-76% of the global energy consumption, and its CO2 emissions account for 765,438+0%-76% of the global emissions.

Up to now, there have been three batches of 87 low-carbon provinces and cities in China. 2 1 Century Economic Research Institute selected 20 observation cities, including first-tier cities, new first-tier cities, cities with separate plans and some key provincial capitals, namely Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, Chongqing, Xiamen, Hangzhou, Suzhou, Qingdao and Xiamen.

20 1 1 16 10, at the United Nations Marrakech Climate Change Conference, Xie Ji, then deputy head of the China delegation, told the media that many cities in China promised to reach the peak of urban carbon emissions around 2030, and some cities also promised to reach the peak around 2020.

So far, no city officials have revealed whether the carbon dioxide emissions have reached the peak, but after China officially made a clear commitment to the world on carbon dioxide emissions peak and carbon neutrality last year, some cities put forward a more prudent timetable.

2 1 Century Economic Research Institute selects several indicators, such as permanent population, per capita GDP, the proportion of secondary industry, and electricity consumption per 10,000 yuan GDP, to present the population size, economic development level, industrial structure and energy consumption intensity of the city, and preliminarily judge the present situation and potential of low-carbon development of the city. Among them, due to the lack of city-scale energy consumption system data, the ratio of annual electricity consumption to GDP of a city is used to express the energy consumption intensity.

It is worth noting that for a single city, the peak carbon dioxide emission is a comparative concept of a vertical year. For example, a city's carbon emissions per unit GDP are high, but at the same time, the annual decline rate is also very fast, so it is possible to achieve the peak of carbon dioxide emissions as soon as possible, that is to say, when different cities reach the peak, carbon emissions are high or low.

However, if we consider the long-term goal of carbon neutrality and compare different cities horizontally, we tend to think that cities with higher economic development level and lower energy consumption level have greater peak potential of carbon dioxide emissions and will probably move towards carbon neutrality faster.

Beishangguangshen and Shenzhen may be the first to achieve the peak of carbon dioxide emissions.

According to Beijing Statistical Yearbook, in 20 19, the energy consumption per 10,000 yuan GDP of the primary, secondary and tertiary industries in Beijing was 0.478, 0.35 1 and 0. 14 1 ton standard coal respectively.

It is not difficult to see that the energy consumption per 10,000 yuan GDP of the tertiary industry is obviously lower than that of the primary and secondary industries. In view of the fact that the proportion of primary industry in key cities is generally small, and the proportion of secondary industry is basically in a declining stage in recent years, this will bring about an overall decline in energy consumption level.

According to the situation in Beijing, the proportion of tertiary industry will be 0.415.883.8 in 2020, and the proportion of tertiary industry has exceeded 80%, which is the highest among the above 20 cities.

In recent years, Beijing's energy transformation process is also accelerating. In 20 17, the last large coal-fired power plant in Beijing was shut down for standby, and Beijing became the first city in China to bid farewell to coal-fired power generation and fully implement clean energy power generation. From 2065438 to 2008, nearly 3000 villages in Beijing changed coal into clean energy, and the plain areas were basically "coal-free".

According to the statistical yearbook data, from 20 10 to 20 19, the proportion of coal consumption in Beijing's total energy consumption dropped sharply from 29.59% to 1.8 1%, which was almost negligible.

According to the relevant person in charge of the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Ecology and Environment, in 2020, Beijing's carbon intensity is expected to drop by more than 23% compared with 20 15, exceeding the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" target, and the carbon intensity is the lowest in provincial regions in China.

In the Tenth Five-Year Plan, Beijing has set a higher goal-during the Tenth Five-Year Plan, carbon emissions will be steadily reduced and carbon neutrality will take a solid step, which will set a good example for Beijing to deal with climate change. This statement may indicate that Beijing's carbon emissions have entered or will soon enter a platform period, and will seek to achieve a decline in the next five years.

Although the energy consumption per 10,000 yuan GDP of the tertiary industry is the lowest, this does not necessarily mean that cities need to blindly pursue the decline in the proportion of industries. Taking Shanghai as an example, according to the industrial energy terminal consumption index, the industrial energy terminal consumption in Shanghai reached a peak of 61655,700 tons of standard coal in 201year, and then showed a downward trend. By 20 19, this value has dropped to 56,680,500 tons of standard coal.

In the same period, Shanghai's industrial added value increased from 723.057 billion yuan in 2065.438+065.438+0 to 967.068 billion yuan in 2065.438+09, increasing year by year. Behind this drop is the structural upgrading and energy saving and efficiency improvement of Shanghai industry. The Shanghai Municipal Development and Reform Commission recently informed the outside world that in recent years, Shanghai has solidly promoted the "double control" of total energy consumption and intensity, continued to implement industrial restructuring, and actively carried out pilot demonstrations of green and low-carbon recycling.

In June of this year, 5438+ 10, Shanghai took the lead in putting forward the latest schedule of peak carbon dioxide emissions, and by 2025, the total carbon emissions should strive to reach the peak.

The proportion of secondary industry in Guangzhou is equivalent to that in Shanghai, and the electricity consumption per unit GDP in Guangzhou is slightly lower than that in Shanghai. In 20 17, the General Office of Guangzhou Municipal Government issued the 13th Five-Year Plan for Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction in Guangzhou (20 16-2020), proposing that by the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan, the industrial structure and energy consumption structure of the whole city will be further optimized, energy utilization efficiency will be continuously improved, energy consumption and total carbon emissions will be effectively controlled, and efforts will be made to achieve the peak of total carbon emissions.

Guangzhou's carbon emission trading is in a leading position in the country. According to the data of Guangtan Institute, as of March, 20021year, the cumulative turnover of carbon emission quota in Guangdong Province was 65,438+75 million tons, accounting for 37.9 1% of the national carbon trading pilot, ranking first in the country. The cumulative turnover was 3.636 billion yuan, accounting for 34.00% of the national carbon trading pilot, making it the first pilot carbon market in China with spot trading volume exceeding 3.5 billion yuan.

Among the four first-tier cities, Shenzhen's secondary industry accounts for the highest proportion, accounting for 37.8% in 2020, but Shenzhen is also a model of industrial optimization and upgrading. During the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, Shenzhen * * * eliminated more than 0.7 million low-end enterprises in transition, and the heavily polluting industries such as steel, cement, electrolytic aluminum and coal basically withdrew.

In June, 2020, You Na, Deputy Secretary-General of Shenzhen Municipal Government, introduced that since 10, the energy consumption per unit of industrial added value in Shenzhen has decreased by nearly 60%. Among the megacities in China, Shenzhen has the lowest carbon emission level and the slowest carbon emission growth.

On 20 19, Harbin Institute of Technology (Shenzhen) took the lead in completing the "three-up" research report on peak carbon emissions, air quality and high-quality economic development in Shenzhen. The research group pointed out that Shenzhen is on the road to the peak of carbon dioxide emissions, and it is impossible to determine when and when it will reach the peak, but Shenzhen is in a stable peak range from 20 19 to 2020.

Industrial cities need to fully tap the space of carbon emission reduction.

Studies have shown that according to the calculation that "carbon dioxide emissions should peak before 2030", when the national per capita GDP reaches 1.4 million US dollars, China will reach the peak of carbon emissions as a whole and enter the stage of absolute emission reduction. Cities and regions with a per capita GDP of $65,438 +0.4 million have the conditions to take the lead in reducing the absolute amount of carbon emissions.

According to the average exchange rate of RMB 1 USD = 6.8974 RMB in 2020, 14000 USD is about 96564 RMB. In addition to the four first-tier cities, Nanjing, Suzhou, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Wuhan, Xiamen, Qingdao, Changsha, Jinan, Hefei and Tianjin are 165438+.

Combined with the industrial structure, Suzhou's secondary industry accounts for the highest proportion, reaching 46.5%. In 20 18, its electricity consumption per unit GDP was as high as 856 kwh/10,000 yuan, nearly twice that of Shanghai.

Suzhou 20 14 released Suzhou's low-carbon development plan, proposing to strive for the peak of total carbon dioxide emissions in 2020. In recent years, Suzhou's energy efficiency level is gradually improving, but the energy consumption ratio of high energy-consuming industries is still high. According to the data of Suzhou Statistical Yearbook, in 20 17, the comprehensive energy consumption of Suzhou industry reached 53.07 million tons of standard coal, among which the comprehensive energy consumption of six high energy-consuming industries, such as electricity, steel, textile, paper making, chemical industry and building materials, reached 43.75 million tons of standard coal, accounting for about 82% of the industrial energy consumption.

Ningbo is also an important manufacturing base in the southeast coast, with the secondary industry accounting for 45.9%. The electricity consumption per unit GDP in Ningbo is 72 1 kwh/10,000 yuan, only lower than that in Suzhou.

However, in contrast, Changsha, where the proportion of the secondary industry is also not low (38.4%), its electricity consumption per unit GDP is only 33 1 kwh/10,000 yuan, which is the lowest among the above 20 cities.

This may benefit from the greening of Changsha's industrial structure. According to the data of Changsha Statistical Yearbook, in 20 18, the energy consumption of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry in Changsha (one of the six high energy-consuming industries) was only 4,443 tons of standard coal, while that in Suzhou in the same year was18.34 million tons of standard coal.

Some local officials have concluded that Changsha is a new industrial city, which belongs to traditional industries such as construction machinery, food and beverage, automobile and parts manufacturing, materials, electronic information and mobile Internet. From this point of view, Changsha can be regarded as a model city for developing green industries.

In the five cities with per capita GDP below 1.4 million dollars, the proportion of secondary industry is also relatively high, all above 30%, and Dalian and Chongqing have reached 40%.

2 1 Century Economic Research Institute believes that in terms of carbon emission reduction, one of the primary tasks of industrial cities should be to save energy and increase efficiency in the industrial production process, seek low-emission energy substitutes, use energy-saving technologies, actively adjust the industrial structure, upgrade the industrial level, accelerate the upgrading and withdrawal of industries with high energy consumption and high emissions, develop clean industries, and fully tap the carbon emission reduction space of the secondary industry.

Since the beginning of this year, relevant ministries and commissions have repeatedly issued signals to strictly control projects with high energy consumption and high emissions, which will largely force the transformation of the city's industrial structure.

Relevant leaders of Tianjin Eco-environment Bureau said in the report on the peak carbon dioxide emission and carbon neutrality in March that the essence of implementing the peak carbon dioxide emission action is to promote a comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development, gradually get rid of high-carbon dependence, and jointly promote high-quality economic and social development and high-level ecological environmental protection. The policy measures in the industrial field are mainly to implement low-carbon transformation of traditional industries and develop clean low-carbon industries.

Recently, Dalian also revealed that the first draft of Dalian CO2 Peak Action Plan has been completed, and the peak measures will be implemented mainly from three aspects: resolutely curbing the "two high" projects, strengthening inventory management and strictly controlling the increment.

In addition, although industrial carbon reduction does not necessarily mean reducing the proportion of the secondary industry, objectively speaking, tapping the service industry and residents' consumption potential does help reduce the level of urban energy consumption.

According to the S&P global rating, if the proportion of consumption in GDP can reach the level close to that of developed economies, China's carbon emissions are expected to be reduced by more than 30% in the next 20 years. With the increase of residents' income and the importance of consumption to the economy, the demand for services will also rise relative to the demand for goods. If capital and labor force shift from producing steel, cement and capital goods to providing education, medical care and leisure services, the level of energy consumption per unit of GDP may decline.

How to reduce carbon in urban operation?

Are cities with low per capita GDP and high proportion of secondary industry bound to face a more severe peak situation of carbon dioxide emissions?

The answer isno. In fact, in addition to the advantages of the more developed coastal areas in the east, some areas rich in renewable energy resources in the southwest also have innate endowment.

Take Kunming as an example. In Yunnan Province, where Kunming is located, clean power generation accounts for 92% of the province, and non-fossil energy accounts for 46% of primary energy consumption, ranking first in the country.

Yunnan province is rich in energy resources, and the energy structure is mainly low-carbon non-fossil energy. The proportion of green energy installed, green power generation, clean energy trading and non-fossil energy consumption has reached the world-class level. This year, Yunnan Province proposed to increase the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption to more than 50% by 2030, and strive to build a national carbon dioxide emission peak and carbon neutral demonstration province.

2 1 Century Economic Research Institute believes that a city like Kunming, which has a relatively low per capita GDP but a good endowment of clean energy, can fully seize the opportunity to vigorously develop green and low-carbon industries, and it is expected to achieve cornering overtaking in urban competition in the new development pattern in the future.

For some cities, the low-carbon transformation of industrial structure has been basically completed, and the energy supply mainly depends on the transfer from other places. Carbon reduction work may focus more on reducing the carbon emissions of urban operation itself.

Low-carbon development is closely related to urban scale, population density and other factors, and carbon emission reduction at the residential and consumer ends needs attention. According to the experience of industrialized countries, the carbon emissions generated by residents' consumption have become the main growth point of national carbon emissions, which can reach 60%-80%.

Comparing Beijing and Shanghai, in 20 19, the per capita living energy consumption of the two cities was 785.3 kg of standard coal and 528.92 kg of standard coal respectively. On this indicator, Beijing is facing a more severe situation.

It should be noted that the smaller the urban population, the more conducive to carbon emission reduction. From the existing research, the per capita carbon emission of global cities is inversely proportional to the urban population density, which may be mainly due to the scale effect of urban agglomerations. With the increase of population concentration and the increase of enjoyment, the per capita infrastructure and energy consumption decrease. Of course, cities should also balance the issues of density and livability.

According to the data of the seventh national census, the above 20 cities were basically in the stage of massive net population inflow in the past 10 years. With the exception of Xiamen, where the resident population is only 5164,000, other cities 19 all exceed 7 million, especially those with a population of10,000. Judging from the law of population development and the current population policies of most cities, the trend of population gathering in big cities will continue in the future.

Population size will affect the number of cars, commuting distance, building density and so on. This will directly affect the city's carbon emissions.

Under the foreseeable trend of population concentration, whether a city is planning its space or even its industry, or carrying out renovation and renewal, it should fully consider the requirements of low-carbon development, such as optimizing the land use structure and standardizing the relationship between occupation and residence; Improve the coverage of rail transit to provide more adequate road rights protection for public transportation, cycling and walking; Guide citizens to buy or replace new energy vehicles; Pay attention to the application of building energy-saving transformation technology, so that the concept of low carbon can be truly integrated into urban operation.

In addition, 2 1 Century Economic Research Institute believes that the goal of carbon dioxide emission peak and carbon neutrality needs the universal participation of the whole society, and individual carbon reduction actions are equally important. Government departments can lead the low-carbon transformation of residents' consumption, including establishing an effective incentive mechanism.

At present, cities including Shanghai and Shenzhen have proposed to promote "carbon inclusion".

Cheng Peng, director of the Shanghai Municipal Bureau of Ecology and Environment, recently revealed that Shanghai is working hard to prepare an action plan for peak carbon dioxide emissions, including the preparation of carbon-inclusive projects. Simply put, it is to calculate the carbon dioxide emissions reduced by various low-carbon behaviors of citizens and turn them into "carbon points" in everyone's accounts. Then, through the docking of Shanghai carbon trading market and various commercial consumption platforms, citizens who practice low-carbon life can get real incentives.

According to the statistics of 2 1 century economic research institute, some of the above 20 observation cities have entered the post-industrial era, some have successfully completed the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure, carbon emissions are gradually decoupled from economic development, some are rich in clean resources, and some are actively planning to reduce carbon consumption, which actually provides ideas for different types of cities to achieve the peak of carbon dioxide emissions. Low carbon transition is a clear direction. Whoever is more active is more likely to seize the high ground in the future competition of new cities.

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