20 17 is the house price falling or rising? Five authoritative organizations say so.

20 16 is about to pass. In this year, the real estate market has been going up and rising strongly. 20 17 what will happen to the real estate market in the coming year? According to the reports issued by CICC, Guoan Junan, CITIC Securities, UBS Securities and Founder Securities, institutions generally believe that the real estate market will be adjusted after 20 16 skyrocketing. However, institutions generally believe that we should not expect a significant adjustment in the real estate market.

CICC: 20 17 house prices will not fall.

Zhang Yu, an analyst in the research department of CICC, predicts the real estate market in 20 17 years: house prices will not fall. 20 17 remained stable in the first half of the year and returned to an upward trend in the second half.

CICC believes that there will be obvious negative growth in the new housing market at the beginning of the year, but then the decline will be narrowed, and it will resume its upward trend from the second half of the year to the end of the year, and its annual performance will once again exceed market expectations.

First-and second-tier cities: the average sales price remained stable in the first half of 20 17; It is estimated that the sales area will decrease by 30-40% in the fourth quarter of 20 16 and the first quarter of 20 17, and the decline will be narrowed to10-20% after the second quarter of 20 17. It is estimated that the average sales price and sales area will increase again in the second half of 20 17.

Third-and fourth-tier cities: In the first half of 20 17, the average sales price is expected to increase by 5~ 10%, and the sales area will increase by 10~ 15%. It is predicted that the growth momentum of average sales price and sales area will be weakened in the middle of 20 17.

According to the analysis of CICC, with the intervention of administrative measures, the average selling price of new houses will be the same in the fourth quarter of 20 16 and the first quarter of 20 17, but it is expected that there will be three major driving factors to support it to return to the upward trend in the second half of the year: first, developers have sufficient funds; Secondly, the supply gap between first-tier cities and core second-tier cities is difficult to be fundamentally solved in the short term; The land price is high.

CITIC Securities: The house price will not drop sharply on 20 17.

In the report "Investment Strategy of Real Estate Industry 20 17", the research department of CITIC Securities predicted that the sales of commercial housing would drop obviously in 20 17, the house price would be basically stable, and the development investment would still maintain a positive growth.

According to the analysis of CITIC Securities, the enthusiasm of commercial banks for personal loans may have reached the upper limit at present, and it is difficult to continue to improve due to the influence of policies. 20 17 may usher in the upward inflection point of mortgage interest rate. Therefore, commercial housing sales may drop significantly next year.

CITIC Securities said that in 20 17 years, the sales of commercial housing may drop significantly, but the variables are great. The uncertainty of the real estate market comes from the policy uncertainty after 20 17. At present, the policies to regulate the market order are extremely strict, but after several months of market adjustment, how will these policies be implemented? Internationally, there are many external variables that affect China's macroeconomic changes, and there is uncertainty in China's monetary policy, so is the goal of asset price control. Assuming that the current policy will run through 20 17, we think that the sales of commercial housing will drop obviously in 20 17.

CITIC Securities predicts that in 20 17, the mortgage interest rate will usher in an inflection point and the trend will go up. Due to the pressure of exchange rate, it is difficult to lower the benchmark interest rate. The regulation of real estate may be accompanied by the window guidance of mortgage, especially the innovative ways of personal credit such as checking mortgage and refinancing. It is considered that the increase of personal debt cost is the most critical reason for the possible decline of housing sales in 20 17 years.

CITIC Securities said that the overall market adjustment in 20 17 was not as good as that in 2008 (after all, it was still in the era of low interest rates). However, the developable area of the property market has been difficult to expand, and the historical stage of 20 17 is not as good as that of 2008. We estimate that in 20 17, the sales area of commercial housing in China decreased by about 15% year-on-year.

Although the sales in the 20 17 market have cooled down, the house price is likely to remain stable and there will be no obvious decline. There are three reasons: sufficient funds for developing enterprises, rational policies and measures, and low interest rate environment still exists. Although the policy aims to prevent the house price from rising too fast and hopes to see results in a short time, the highly differentiated regional policy shows from another angle that the policy has no intention of "overcorrecting". The policy of loosening and grasping frequently undermines prestige, and the sharp drop in house prices is not the goal of policy regulation.

Citic Securities warned that if the benchmark interest rate rises due to the uncertainty of domestic and international situation, especially the pressure of RMB exchange rate, it may bring the risk of fundamental overshoot. The so-called fundamental overshoot means that not only the sales volume has dropped significantly, but also the house price has dropped significantly. CITIC also believes that it is unlikely that the benchmark interest rate will rise. Moreover, even if the benchmark interest rate rises, the policy will not overshoot in time.

Founder Securities: Real estate fell in a small cycle but not deep.

Ren Zeping Ren Zeping, chief economist of Founder Securities, said in the report "Soft Landing of China Economy" that based on the judgment of "L-shaped economy" in 20 15 years, the economic picture of China in 20 17 years was deduced, and the basic conclusion was that China's economy might "soft landing" and there would be a "double dip" in 20 17 years.

Regarding the trend of real estate in 20 17, Ren Zeping said that during the National Day, real estate control policies were introduced intensively, and real estate sales in10/1month dropped sharply. Considering that the transmission lag from sales to investment is about 6 months, the decline of real estate investment may be around the second quarter of 20 17. However, it is estimated that this round of real estate investment correction may not be deep. It is estimated that the growth rate of real estate investment will be 1%-3% and 438+07 in 2065, mainly because the growth rate of real estate investment in the early stage was mainly driven by first-and second-tier cities, and the destocking in third-and fourth-tier cities exceeded expectations.

Ren Zeping believes that the future real estate will decline in a small cycle, but the magnitude is not deep, and the investment growth rate will not be high, while the replenishment of inventory and the financial resonance between China and the United States will partially hedge the impact of the decline in real estate investment.

Guotai Junan: 20 17 Real estate investment is neither sunny nor cold.

Guotai Junan said in a recent report that there was no sunny day in the real estate industry in 20 17 years. In the case of high sales, investment and start-up base in 20 16, the industry as a whole faces great downward pressure in 20 17. With the intensive introduction of multi-city control policies on National Day, it marks that real estate has entered a new round of purchase restriction cycle, which will inevitably curb demand in the short term. The decline in sales will drag down the investment side, and the growth rate of new construction area will also show a downward trend month by month; Especially in the first half of 20 17, due to the high base in the same period, the overall downward pressure on the plate was relatively large.

On the policy side, the expectation of short-term regulation is still tightening, and the policy attitude in 20 17 is uncertain, mainly depending on the macroeconomic and property market operation in the first half of 20 17. With the improvement of tolerance for economic downturn, the overall regulatory policy tightening is expected to be higher.

Guotai Junan also said that 20 17 real estate investment is not a cold winter. It is expected that monetary policy will remain loose, so there is no need to worry too much about the downside risks in the real estate sector. Monetary policy will systematically and widely affect the expectations of the real estate market. Therefore, under the expectation that monetary policy is still loose, the downward pressure on the overall economy will be even greater, and real estate as a pillar industry is unlikely to undergo major adjustments.

Guotai Junan predicts that the overall growth rate of real estate investment in 20 17 will face greater downward pressure due to the high base in 20 16. The growth rate is expected to be within 2%, and the year-on-year growth rate of sales is within 10%.

UBS: This round of real estate adjustment is milder than 20 14.

Wang Tao, Chen Lan and Zhong Hui, special chief economists of UBS Securities, predicted in "China Economic Perspective 20 17- 18 Macroeconomic Outlook of China" that the current real estate policy regulation and the potential uncertainty of supply and demand may drag down real estate investment and construction again in 20 17. However, the current decline in real estate inventory and moderate construction activities mean that the new round of adjustment will not exceed 20 14- 15.

UBS said that this year's strong real estate sales have overdrawn some future demand, and the continuous introduction of real estate control measures means that real estate activities are likely to weaken in the future. From a fundamental point of view, China's high rate of housing ownership and slow urbanization should not support such a strong growth in sales. Residents also overdraw part of the demand for house purchase in advance, mainly because they are worried that the house price will be too high in the future, or grasp the time window with low tax and loan costs.

UBS predicts that real estate sales will slow down more obviously at the end of this year and next year, and the growth rate in 20 17 will slow down to 0-2%. With the obvious decline of real estate sales growth in 20 17, it is expected that construction and investment will also slow down.

UBS said that this round of real estate market adjustment should be more moderate than 20 14- 15 years. Based on several factors: the decision-makers don't want a big adjustment in the real estate market and the growth rate slows down, so the real estate control measures so far are generally mild, based on the policy of the city; The level of real estate inventory decreased overall compared with two years ago; The recovery of real estate construction and investment this year is slow and moderate, so the subsequent decline should not exceed 20 14- 15.

UBS predicts that the real estate market will continue to adjust slowly in 20 18, with the slowdown of urbanization, the decline of investment demand and the early overdraft of housing demand. At present, residents' housing price expectations have begun to weaken.

(The above answers were published on 2016-11-28. Please refer to the actual purchase policy. )

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