Multi-agency comprehensive analysis: In September, the non-agricultural sector broke out again that the Fed 1 1 monthly code reduction was hopeless.

According to the data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday (10.8), the number of non-agricultural employees in the United States increased by194,000 in September after seasonal adjustment, and it is expected to increase by 500,000, with the previous value of 235,000. In September, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.8%, the lowest since March 2020. It is expected to increase by 5. 1%, with the previous value of 5.2%.

According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the number of new non-agricultural employment in August was revised from 235,000 to 366,000; In July, the number of new non-agricultural employees was revised from 6.5438+0.053 million to 6.5438+0.09110,000. The number of people employed in public education has dropped this month. In September, the number of non-agricultural employees increased by 6.5438+0.94 million, and the unemployment rate dropped by 0.4 percentage points to 4.8%. Employment opportunities in leisure and hotel industries, professional and business services have increased substantially. After the revision, the total number of new jobs in August and September was 654.38+0.69 million higher than that previously reported.

Huitong Com quickly commented that the non-agricultural population exploded194,000 in September, which was significantly less than expected, and the Fed 1 1 month may be difficult to reduce. The report on non-farm employment in September showed that the number of employed people increased by 6.5438+0.94 million, far less than the expected 500,000. September's non-farm employment data is the only employment report available to the Federal Reserve before its policy meeting on1October 2-3.

In September, the number of non-agricultural employees in the United States only increased by 6.5438+0.94 million, which was worse than that in August and far less than the expectation of an increase of 500,000 given by all sectors of the market. At the same time, the unemployment rate hit a new low since the outbreak of the epidemic, at 4.8%. The data shows that the lack of employment will of the American people has not been reversed, although most of the federal unemployment benefits have ended in the same month. As a result, on the one hand, the employment growth rate is slow, on the other hand, the labor shortage makes the wage inflation level rise further, which will also make the Fed's policy orientation even more difficult.

Forexlive, a financial website, commented that in September, non-agricultural farmers said that the employment growth in September brought the overall employment level back to the level in February 2020 (before the epidemic). However, the employment rate in September (that is, the employment rate of1population aged 5 and above) was 60.9%, which was 0.9 percentage points lower than that in February 2020, because the population increased by 1.4% in the past 19 months.

Bloomberg analysts commented on non-agricultural Matthew Boesler in September. According to the revised data, the leisure and hotel industry actually added 38,000 jobs in August, instead of the zero net growth first reported last month. Another 74,000 people were added in September. This is still much lower than the running speed in previous months, but it may not be as bad as previously feared.

In September, the growth rate of non-farm employment in the United States further slowed down, and the unemployment rate continued to decline, only because the employment participation rate of the whole society further declined, and many low-paid and hard jobs that required outdoor field work or close contact with customers were still difficult to fill.

The global director of interest rate strategy of TD Securities commented that in September, non-agricultural companies said that despite the cold data, the threshold for the Fed to continue to reduce its bond purchases was "very low". As long as the data is higher than zero, the Fed will reduce its bond purchases. The market has digested the expectation of reducing the size of bond purchases. The most important thing now is when they will start raising interest rates.

Joseph, an analyst at Fxstreet, commented that the US economy seems to be booming in other aspects in September, but the second bad employment report will not prevent the Fed (at least not yet) from starting to reduce its bond purchases. In fact, the Federal Open Market Committee can reduce bond purchases and wait for things to develop.

Olivia lochman, an analyst at Bloomberg, commented on the non-farm payrolls data in September, saying that the sluggish employment growth for several months showed that there was a tug-of-war between employers and job seekers-employers urgently needed employees to meet the demand, but job seekers were unwilling to return to the workplace. However, when companies raise wages, the reopening of schools and the end of federal unemployment benefits should lead to an increase in recruitment in the coming months.

This article comes from Huitong. com