Will pensions rise in 2023? How much can it go up?

Since 2005, employees' pensions have been rising continuously 18 years. Now, in 2023, as many places indicated that they would continue to adjust pensions for retirees, the economy and prices rose, and the social security fund also maintained a stable operation. According to the provisions of the social security law, the pension level of retirees should be raised in a timely manner according to the average wage increase and price increase of employees. Then it is highly probable that the pension will continue to be adjusted in 2023. Then, if the pension is adjusted in 2023, how much increase can it achieve? This is a concern of retirees. Let's take a look at the pension increase since 18, including the per capita pension and the corresponding increase. Please see the picture below: Since the pension increase in 2005-2007 was adjusted according to a certain proportion of the average social wage, I won't discuss it here. From 2008, the increase of pension reached 10% and continued to 20 15, and the per capita pension also doubled during this period. From 20 16, the increase of pension entered an inflection point and was in a downward channel, showing a downward trend year by year. This year is indeed a bit special, because retirees from government agencies and institutions began to participate in the pension increase together with enterprise retirees. Specifically, it rose by 6.5% in 20 16, 5.5% in 20 17, 5% from 20 18 to 2020, 4.5% in 20021year and 4% in 2022. Why is there such a change in the increase of pension, and it is decreasing year by year? There are several main reasons: 1. After years of increase, the pension has reached a high base, such as per capita pension 1, 5 1, 1 yuan, and per capita pension is 2987 yuan. The former rose by 10%, that is, the per capita pension rose by 1, 5 1 yuan. If it goes up by 10%, the per capita increase is 298 yuan, which is too big. 2. China's GDP growth rate is also slowing down as a whole, and the past double-digit growth is also difficult to achieve. 3. Population aging is accelerating. The Health and Health Commission has said that it is expected that the total number of elderly people aged 60 and above will exceed 300 million during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, accounting for more than 20%, and will enter a stage of moderate aging. Around 2035, it entered the stage of severe aging. The acceleration of population aging will undoubtedly increase the payment pressure of social security funds. ? In this regard, we can also take a look at Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security's explanation that the increase of pension has dropped from 10% to 6.5% in 20 16 years: considering the new normal of China's economic development and the new situation of aging population. Pension adjustment should not only effectively protect the basic livelihood of retirees, but also not exceed the affordability of all aspects of the economy and society. On this basis, if the pension rises in 2023, how much can it rise? Judging from the upward trend and corresponding support, pensions are likely to increase by 3.5% in 2023 for the following reasons: 1 Starting from 2022, the future 10 will usher in the largest retirement tide in history, and 2023 will be the peak of this wave of retirement. The data shows that in 2022, there was the first negative population growth in the past 6 1 year, but the elderly population increased by16.02 million, and the population aging accelerated. 2. In 2022, the GDP growth reached 3%, and the per capita wage income was 20,590 yuan, an increase of 4.9%. Compared with 20021,the GDP increased by 8.4%, and the per capita wage income increased by 9.6%, both of which decreased. 3. In terms of price, the CPI rose by 2% in 2022, and the performance was also moderate. To sum up, the signal of pension increase in 2023 has been released, and this year it will be increased continuously for 19 years, and there is basically no big suspense. However, retirees are also more concerned about the increase in pensions. Judging from the increase over the years, the increase in pensions is also in a downward channel. In addition, the economy and prices rose moderately last year, and the population aging accelerated. Pensions are likely to increase by 3.5% in 2023, lower than last year. What do you think of this?