How to solve the problem of social security replacement rate in China

The replacement rate of old-age insurance is an important indicator reflecting the basic living security level of retirees. Therefore, determining the appropriate replacement rate of old-age insurance has become one of the key issues in the design of old-age insurance system in China, and it is also a basic work to improve China's social security system.

Influencing factors:

The main factors affecting the replacement rate of old-age insurance are: payment standard (including payment base and payment rate), payment period (depending on the initial payment time and retirement age), collection period (depending on retirement age and life span), pension investment return rate, salary one year before retirement, salary growth rate, etc.

1, pension insurance payment standard. The payment standard of endowment insurance is an important factor affecting the replacement rate of endowment insurance, including two factors: payment base and payment rate. The payment base is determined by the payment salary, which is determined by the initial payment salary and the annual salary growth rate.

The basic old-age insurance combines social pooling with individual accounts, and the expenses are borne by enterprises and individual employees. The specific social insurance monthly payment base of individual accounts is generally determined according to the monthly average of employees' wages in the previous year, and is determined once a year. Once confirmed, it will not change within one year. According to the State Council's Decision on Improving the Basic Old-age Insurance System for Enterprise Employees, employees pay according to the proportion of 8% of their average monthly salary base in the previous year, and enterprises account for 20% of their total annual salary in principle. However, in actual implementation, according to the local actual situation, all localities have formulated the proportion and base of payment in their own regions.

The current system, especially the upper limit of payment base, means that the growth rate of pension insurance payment will be slower than that of wages, which will reduce the replacement rate of pension insurance. The provisions of the lower limit of the payment base may affect the current consumption of low-income industries. If the wage growth rate of low-income industries is lower than the national average for a long time, the payment will be made according to the lower limit of the current payment base, which means that the payment of endowment insurance will be faster than the wage growth rate, thus improving the replacement rate of endowment insurance.

2. Payment period of endowment insurance. The payment period is equal to the average retirement age minus the starting working age. Judging from the payment years, the average payment time tends to be shortened due to the extension of the average education years of employees. According to statistics, in 1990, the average length of education in China was 5.5 years, in 2000 it was 7. 1 year, and in 2005 it was 8.5 years. It is estimated that by 2020, the average length of education in China will be about 1 1 year.

With the shortening of the average payment time, the replacement rate of endowment insurance in China is facing downward pressure. Therefore, to improve the replacement rate of old-age insurance, on the one hand, employees can be given limited retirement age options, on the other hand, they can also consider lowering the starting working age.

3. Years of endowment insurance. The pension period is equal to the average life expectancy minus the pension age (retirement age). With the continuous development of economy, the average life expectancy of China people is also increasing, from 43.46 years in 1960 to 73.5 years in 20 10. It is estimated that the average life expectancy in China will reach 77 years in 2020. With the extension of life expectancy, if the retirement age remains unchanged, the number of years of receiving pensions will increase. Correspondingly, the replacement rate of China's old-age insurance has decreased.

4. Return on investment in endowment insurance. The investment return rate of pension is related to the investment requirements (safety, liquidity and profitability), investment field and investment level of pension. The higher the return on investment, the higher the replacement rate of endowment insurance.

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