The gap of endowment insurance is so big, how can we plan in the future?

Recently, Dai Xianglong, chairman of the National Social Security Fund Council, admitted frankly at the Boao Forum that there is indeed a gap in pensions, and a stone has stirred up a thousand waves, and the topic of social security has become a hot topic. How is the pension gap caused? How to fill this gap? Although we are talking about the previous generation of social security, this concept is too macro. How big is the pension gap for ordinary people? Ms. Yang, 6 1 year old, retired in 2006. At present, her pension is above average among her peers. "Before she retired, the human resources department of the unit calculated an account for me privately. I have paid my own pension for more than ten years after retirement, but after ten years, I will use the insurance of my children's generation. " According to Ms. Yang, her father never paid pension insurance. Previously, the pension was entirely borne by the factory, but with the implementation of pension insurance, her father's pension was transferred to the social pension department. Because there are not so many financial subsidies, the money in Ms. Yang's personal pension account is used to pay her father's pension. When Ms. Yang retired, the money in her personal account was only enough to pay her pension for about 10 years. In this way, she will use other employees' personal pension accounts. My social security is supporting the previous generation, and I may be supported by the next generation in the near future, but my daughter is an only child. According to the stupid calculation method, her social security should be able to support her parents and herself, so her burden is heavy. Ms. Yang is very worried about the future pension. This is the trouble of ordinary retirees, and from a macro perspective, Ms. Yang's trouble is also the trouble of pension gap. In the medium and long term, the aging population is the main factor leading to the gap between pension income and expenditure. The aging population will directly change the scale and proportion of pension payers and burden groups in China, and then have an important impact on pension revenue and expenditure. The existing model shows that at present, in the urban pension system, about three workers support 1 elderly; By 2050, it will become about 1 labor support 1 elderly people. Because the dependency ratio is greatly increased, it is difficult to reduce the substitution ratio, which will lead to a large pension gap. According to the calculation, in the next 38 years, the accumulated gap of basic pension for employees in urban enterprises brought by population factors is equivalent to 57% of 20 1 1 annual GDP, and the accumulated gap of pension for institutions and institutions brought by population factors is equivalent to 20 1 1 4% of annual GDP. Obviously, without reform, the pension system will not be sustainable. Delaying retirement is a great loss. The old-age insurance system in China was born out of the labor insurance system arranged by enterprises in the planned economy era. Before the reform, employees didn't have to pay pension insurance, which created a current situation: those who didn't pay before had to misappropriate the pension paid by the latecomers. Therefore, people who are paying old-age insurance will inevitably worry that our money is used to pay other people's pensions. How should we solve our own pension gap in the future? Although national financial subsidies can fill the deficit in personal accounts, with the advent of an aging society, financial subsidies cannot fill the gap indefinitely, so delaying retirement age is put on the agenda. Dai Xianglong made it clear that measures such as extending retirement age and pension payment period can be taken to achieve balance of payments. He pointed out: "Now I retire at the age of 60, and I may retire at the age of 63 in the future." However, the problem of pension gap in China can never be solved by delaying the retirement age, at least for quite some time. Facing the problem of providing for the aged with a population of 654.38+0.3 billion, the disadvantages of solving the pension gap by extending the retirement age far outweigh the benefits. Some experts have calculated that there are at least 6 million retirees in China every year. If you delay retirement, you will eat the jobs of 6 million working-age people every year. In addition, China's economic growth rate may drop from about 10% to below 7%. Every drop in GDP 1 percentage point will reduce employment by about 1 10,000 people. Based on this calculation, about 3 million jobs will be lost every year. Two factors devour the jobs of 9 million people every year. The more serious reality is that140,000 people in China can't find jobs every year. Promoting employment is the primary task of economic development. In such a severe employment situation in China, it is not worth the loss to delay the retirement age rashly for the so-called pension gap. It is completely a strategy of sacrificing the small and losing the big at the expense of young people's work, even regardless of social stability. Social security funds should also open source and reduce expenditure at Boao Forum. Dai Xianglong suggested that the state increase the allocation of state-owned assets and expand the national social security reserve fund. Professor Lin, director of the Public Finance Research Center in China, Peking University, and director of the Finance Department, is opposed to using dividends from state-owned enterprises to supplement the pension gap, but he thinks that using state-owned assets is essentially the same as issuing government bonds. One is less assets, and the other is more liabilities. The consequence of these two practices is that the state-owned net assets are reduced, and it is "sitting on a big empty seat." However, Bai Chongen, vice president of Tsinghua University Economic Management Research Institute, believes that the government should increase the dividends of state-owned enterprises to supplement the social security gap. "At present, the dividends of state-owned enterprises mainly operate in the state-owned assets system, and most of them are used as investments. If this part of the dividend can be used to supplement the social security fund, the burden of social security will be reduced accordingly. " Bai Zhongen said that it is an international practice for state-owned enterprises to pay dividends to the government. In recent years, the overall operating conditions of China's state-owned enterprises have further improved, with large total profits and rapid growth. Increasing the dividend ratio of state-owned enterprises can not only effectively solve the social security fund gap, but also control the investment scale of state-owned enterprises, which is conducive to the rational distribution of capital gains and labor income. In addition, Professor Lin also suggested that other old-age security systems should be reformed as soon as possible to ensure social equity and sustainability. At present, the pension of administrative institutions in China is borne by the state finance, and the replacement rate is as high as 90%, which is far from the replacement rate of employee pension. Apart from the large income distribution gap, there is also a large pension gap in China. At present, the problem of providing for the aged of ordinary people is mainly "uneven suffering". Therefore, another problem that the pension system needs to solve is the "dual track system". The endowment insurance of administrative institutions should be incorporated into the national employee endowment insurance as soon as possible. Civil servants and a considerable number of people in institutions do not have to pay old-age insurance when they are in office, but they can receive higher pensions than employees in enterprises after retirement. Most of their pensions are paid by the state finance, while ordinary retired workers can only rely on their own accounts. Obviously, this system itself is also one of the reasons for the gap. When the dual-track system still exists, delaying the retirement age will easily lead to secondary social injustice, and it is inevitable to encounter a rebound. The "dual-track system" reform that has been clamoring for many years is lagging behind, and delaying the retirement age is also a desire to rest. How to reform the pension system is a major concern of the people of the whole country, and it needs a long-term consideration. We shouldn't always pull the alarm and run the red light. How to dispel public concerns about fairness? How to make the reform results benefit the people? Solving the problem of providing for the aged is the most direct, fundamental and practical embodiment. If the people are old and worried, everything is empty talk.

Further reading: How to buy insurance, which is good, and teach you how to avoid these "pits" of insurance.