? Dai Xianglong talked about "delaying the retirement age": directly delayed from 60 to 65 years old This is a misunderstanding

"The only constant in the world is change", said the ancient Greek philosopher Heraclitus.

In 2021, the new crown epidemic repeated, the political situation is volatile, the economic landscape accelerated reconstruction, global inflation caused market concerns ...

The era of great change, the international situation is treacherous, the domestic situation is equally extraordinary, the development of the operation of the commercial banks, the aging of the population, the contradiction between the income and expenditure of pensions, the delay in the age of retirement, the difficulty of loans for small and micro enterprises, The promotion of rural revitalization ... many questions need to be answered.

How do we identify trends and cycles in an era of great change?

The implementation of state ownership of large banks is conducive to the realization of the internationalization of the banking industry

Financial support for the real economy in the context of the large commercial banks how to achieve integrated management? To help the long-term development of the financial industry, the bank how to internationalization?

As an experienced financier, Dai Xianglong has served as governor of the People's Bank of China. Talking about the integrated operation of commercial banks, Dai Xianglong believes that integrated operation is not equal to mixed operation. In the future, we can consider the large commercial banks in China have carried out the integrated operation of the pilot work to summarize.

For the internationalization of the banking industry, Dai Xianglong said that the international large banks to implement state holding, this mode of operation is conducive to meet the needs of large enterprises in financial services, reduce risk, but also conducive to competition abroad. "But we should treat it differently according to China's national conditions and summarize it as a way to determine the main principles, organizational methods, basic steps and regulatory approaches for large banks to achieve integrated operation in the future."

Interpretation of the Central Economic Work Conference: prudent monetary policy gives enterprises psychological expectations

The Central Economic Work Conference was held on December 8-10 in Beijing. For which the monetary policy, Dai Xianglong said, sound monetary policy with a routine policy, the nature of the central policy. But the economy is not the same every year, so gradually joint mobilization, fine arrangements, moderate adjustment.

For the change in the expression of monetary policy, from "flexible and precise, reasonable and moderate" to "flexible and moderate, to maintain a reasonable abundance of liquidity", Dai Xianglong interpreted that such a monetary policy to tell the enterprise a psychological expectation, the central bank this year will increase lending. "This maintains abundant liquidity, removes unnecessary pressure, and maintains the smooth adjustment of the economy. This is a very good and very right kind of expression, which I very much agree with."

Increase support for small and micro-enterprises The first thing to do is to solve the problem of whether you can get a loan

The implementation of the "three pillars of old age" system can not be completely dependent on the state's basic pensions

For the sake of the people "How to solve the problem of pensions and whether retirement should be delayed? Each seemingly small issue is closely related to thousands of social individuals.

As the former party secretary of the National Council for Social Security Fund, Dai Xianglong said that, in the context of population aging, the "one-child system" into "encouraging multiple-child system", can slow down the aging of the population. For the resulting contradiction between the income and expenditure of pensions, the system should seriously implement the state's "three pillars of pensions" system, and can not rely entirely on the state's basic pensions. At the same time to find ways to increase the value of various pensions, in addition, the state should also prepare a reserve, in the peak of population aging, used as a transfer to supplement the pension gap. In response to the delay in the retirement age, Dai Xianglong emphasized that some people do not understand, worrying that it is a one-time delay from 60 to 65 years old, which is a misunderstanding. He said, "At that time, I once proposed at the Boao Forum, five years to extend one year. By extending one year in five years, it will take 25 years to postpone from 60 to 65."

Distribute the profits of supply and marketing and credit cooperation to the farmers to make the farmers more prosperous

From poverty alleviation to rural revitalization, the new changes in the river and mountains in full view, how to make the farmers more prosperous for the country's economy and people's livelihood is still of profound significance.

Dai Xianglong proposes to engage in farmers' cooperatives as well as supply and marketing cooperatives and credit cooperatives, and transfer this part of the profit back to the farmers, so that the farmers are more affluent. This is an important aspect of promoting farmers' income and rural revitalization. Both large and medium-sized banks should be allowed to engage in more small and micro-enterprise lending, but also to create a cooperative financial system, where farmers take shares, farmers manage, and only serve farmers, and the effectiveness of their financial services will be greatly changed.

The following is an excerpt from the interview with Dai Xianglong:

01

Commercial bank integrated operation is not equal to mixed operation

Phoenix Finance : You have just mentioned in the opening speech of the summit, due to the extensive use of financial technology, now large commercial banks it is the trend of excess personnel and facilities.

Dai Xianglong: The comprehensive management of large commercial banks is diversified. The first is a full-fledged bank, which has set up a banking department, an insurance department, and a securities department to carry out operations. Bank of Communications was established at the beginning of this model, but the risk is very high. Therefore, except for the German implementation, many countries in the world basically do not adopt the model of full-fledged bank.

The second is that commercial banks invest in the development of insurance and securities as subsidiaries, but the business is all separate.

The third is what happens in many countries around the world, where banks are completely separate from insurance and securities, and banks don't invest in insurance and securities.

China has learned the lessons of the past risks of commercial banks in the integrated operation, and has practiced separate business operation and separate supervision. At present, large commercial banks can carry out integrated pilot, some banks run insurance companies, securities companies and other non-bank financial institutions.

It is worth noting that there is a difference here, integrated operation is not equal to mixed operation. Comprehensive operation is not that banks can run insurance and securities within the bank, but investment to run insurance and securities. That is, large commercial banks set up banks, insurance, securities as subsidiaries in accordance with the law, but they are still subject to separate business operations and separate supervision.

Now due to the development of financial technology, large commercial banks are beginning to have a surplus of staff, services and facilities. Just now I asked the chairman of a large commercial bank, he said it is not a trend, it is now a surplus. At the end of last year in the country's total assets of financial institutions, the banking industry accounted for 90.5%, the insurance industry accounted for only 6.6%, in the whole of the social financing scale of equity financing accounted for only 2.9%. Therefore, I believe that insurance and securities should be developed, and at the same time the costs of large commercial banks should be lowered. I think that in the future, we can consider, the large commercial banks in China have carried out the pilot work of integrated management to summarize.

But as of now, there is no rush. I note that the regulator is still particularly insistent on professional operation and professional supervision, which is right.

But we are talking about the longer term, not 5 or even 15 years. We are going international. Internationally, large banks are practicing state holding, so what are the benefits? It is conducive to meeting the financial service needs of large enterprises, and it is conducive to reducing the risk of large banks, and it is also conducive to competing abroad. But this matter should be carefully studied, according to China's national conditions, differentiated, summed up, in order to determine the future of large banks to achieve the main principles of integrated management, organization, the basic steps and regulatory approach.

02

Solve the contradiction between the income and expenditure of pensions

Appropriate delay in the retirement age

Phoenix Finance : As a very experienced financier. You have served as party secretary of the National Council of Social Security Funds. In the face of the current trend of population growth, how do you think we should solve the problem of pensions?

Dai Xianglong: China's population is gradually aging, according to international standards, compared with many large countries belongs to the central level, but it is developing very quickly, so there is pressure on the economic development and the balance of income and expenditure of pensions. To solve the problem of pensions, the Party Central Committee and State Council has many policies.

The first is to turn the "one-child system" into an "encouragement of multiple-child system", which can slow down the aging of the population. Population aging is, in a way, social progress. With better medical and health care, people can live longer, so it is also a progress. But it brings with it a greater contradiction between the income and expenditure of pensions.

Second, in order to solve this problem, we need to seriously implement the "three-pillar" system of old age pensions established by the state. Three pillars, the first pillar is the employer, the enterprise, according to the proportion of the state to pay the basic pension, the state to co-ordinate the use of, called the basic pension. In the second pillar, the State encourages and supports enterprises to engage in annuities, and institutions to engage in occupational annuities, as a supplementary type. The third pillar, the state proposed to engage in personal pension savings measures. Three pillars to support the pension system, can not rely entirely on the national basic pension, which is the system to solve the pension problem.

Third, we need to find ways to preserve and increase the value of the various pensions that we have extracted, whether it is the first pillar or the second pillar. The biggest problem of preserving and adding value is to establish professional organizations to accept investments. Our country already has a lot of such institutions, the general growth rate, the rate of return on investment is above inflation, higher than the inflation of two, three, three or four percentage points.

Fourth, the appropriate postponement of the retirement age. This issue I said more than 10 years ago, when some people still do not quite understand, especially those manual laborers, he was 55 years old retired, so he asked him to postpone his retirement he was very opinionated, but I can understand. At that time, I once proposed at the Boao Forum that the retirement age be extended by one year in five years. By extending the retirement age by one year in five years, it will take 25 years to postpone the retirement age from 60 to 65. However, some people do not understand, worrying that it is a one-time 60 years old to 65 years old, this is a misunderstanding. At present, the relevant provisions of the state has released that signal, to take a very flexible way, very humane to properly delay the retirement age.

Fifth, the state should have a reserve. I don't know when the population reached the peak of aging, lack of funds, so there must be a reserve. 2000, the State Council decided to set up a national social security fund, this social security fund is actually a social reserve fund. Its purpose is to be used as a transfer fund to replenish the funding gap in the event of a shortfall in pension income and expenditure at the peak of population ageing. Its sources are the financial allocations, the equity allocated by state-owned enterprises, and so on, as well as many other enterprises, and its size has now reached about 2,500 billion dollars. In addition, if the pension is too much, for fear of its depreciation, the Social Security Council also accepts the commission to help keep its value added.

Taking the above measures, I think the problem of population aging and the problem of pension balance at the peak of population aging can be solved.

03

Interpretation of the Central Economic Work Conference

Phoenix Finance: The Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 8th to 10th, and the tone of the prudent monetary policy has remained unchanged, but its expression has changed. The original expression was "flexible and precise, reasonably moderate", but this year it was changed to "flexible and moderate, to maintain a reasonable abundance of liquidity". Why do you think there is such a change?

Dai Xianglong: First of all, let me say the word prudent monetary policy. 1998, China had a deflation, exports fell, prices began to fall. In this case, our country decided to introduce a positive fiscal policy, that is, to increase some more deficits and more fiscal spending. At that time, it was reasonable to say that, in terms of monetary policy, we should also introduce a proactive monetary policy and lend more money. However, the Central Government did not mention this at that time because there were a lot of bank loans at that time, and the production and operation of industrial and commercial enterprises mainly relied on banks, and there were a lot of bad debts. It would not be good to mention active monetary policy again and actively release loans.

So in 1999, the State Council's government report put forward, the implementation of prudent monetary policy. What does this prudent monetary policy mean? It was actually a positive monetary policy under the circumstances. Although the word is not used, it actually increased the money supply appropriately at that time, and increased loans appropriately; although it was called prudent in name, its substance actually still contained a little bit more loan issuance because of deflation. This word is used to now a **** used seventeen or eighteen years, are used prudent monetary policy. Why? Because our country 20 years prices are more balanced growth, are in 2% or so, there is no big ups and downs, there is no inflation, deflation, there is no cyclical economic fluctuations, so the monetary policy does not need to be changed into a positive, there is no need to change this way. In fact, this kind of prudent monetary policy carries the nature of a regular policy, a central policy. But each year the economy is not the same, so the implementation of sound monetary policy, each time gradually joint mobilization, fine arrangements, moderate adjustment, which is not the central policy will not move, remain unchanged, but appropriate adjustment.

This central economic work conference put forward, the implementation of prudent monetary policy. The last few sentences are very important. In the past is to keep the money supply moderate, this word in a way is more neutral, how much is moderate, this is more neutral. But this time moderate mentioned to increase the supply of money in the market.

Phoenix Finance : Yes, liquidity is reasonably abundant.

Dai Xianglong: to maintain a reasonable abundance of market money supply. Note that in the past it was called moderate, this time it is called abundant. That is to say to some extent, in fact, as an expectation that the government, the central bank will appropriately increase the loan, compared with previous years will increase a little more. Then later on, the reserve requirement ratio was lowered by 0.5 percentage point, releasing 1,500 billion dollars, which shows that it is consistent with the monetary policy statement. Such a monetary policy tells everyone, tells enterprises a psychological expectation, tells them that the central bank will increase lending this year and increase the money supply. This keeps liquidity abundant, subtracts unnecessary pressure, and maintains a smooth adjustment of the economy. This is a very good and very right kind of expression, I very much agree.

Phoenix Finance : good, understand, it stabilizes the market sentiment right?

Dai Xianglong: Yes.

04

First of all, to solve the small and micro-enterprises can not be loaned money

Phoenix Finance: the central economic work conference also proposed to guide the financial institutions to increase the support of the real economy, especially small and micro-enterprises, scientific and technological innovation, and the development of green, how do you see this point?

Dai Xianglong: In the past five or six years, many documents of the Party Central Committee and State Council have proposed to strengthen support for small and medium-sized enterprises, especially small and micro enterprises. What is this because? Small and medium-sized enterprises are a lot of, a lot of employment a lot of tax revenue is dependent on it, because small and medium-sized enterprises can also be for large enterprises, the center of the development of enterprises to do supporting, which is very important for the stability of economic development. Therefore, the Party Central Committee and State Council proposed to engage in financial inclusion, the Agricultural Bank of China to set up three rural services, in addition to the regulatory authorities also proposed to increase small and micro-enterprise loans, increase the proportion of the increase, this is correct. I think it is good to emphasize more. From now on, it seems that due to the national policy advocacy, coupled with the conscientious implementation of financial institutions, small and micro-enterprise loans have improved a lot of multi-pronged approach to change a lot.

On the other hand, I think the service to small and micro-enterprises should not only increase the loan again, but more importantly, improve the way of service, the interest rate should be appropriate, too low, the bank will lose money. In addition, in fact, the first thing to address the ability to get a loan, can not be very easy to get a loan, followed by talking about other needs.

05

Talking about rural revitalization to make farmers richer

Dai Xianglong: In addition to supporting large and medium-sized banks and small and micro-enterprises, the problem should also be solved institutionally, that is, to develop a new type of cooperative finance. Our rural credit unions are not cooperative finance anymore, they have been commercialized and turned into commercial banks to better support the development of the rural economy, which has proved to be right, but this does not mean that China does not need to have cooperative finance. Now the central government has considered turning rural credit unions into commercial banks, but the rural cooperative economy still needs to be developed. The central document has been put forward for decades to develop the cooperative economy, and it is not possible just to engage in farmers' cooperatives, which only produce agricultural products and sell them, with a very low return and a high risk.

Let the farmers production cooperatives also engage in agricultural processing, can engage in mutual financial assistance, production cooperation, **** enjoy cooperation, credit cooperation trinity, so that you can supply and marketing cooperation, credit cooperation, part of the profitability of the share to the farmers. Our first few years of agricultural processing alone, the country has 1,300 billion in profits, rural commercial banks, cooperative banks, credit unions profit is 250 billion. If you engage in farmers' cooperatives and at the same time engage in supply and marketing cooperatives and credit cooperatives, you can transfer some of these profits back to the farmers and make them richer. This is a very important aspect of promoting farmers' income and rural revitalization. Therefore, both large and medium-sized banks should be allowed to engage in more small and micro-enterprise loans, but also to create a cooperative financial system, farmers into the shares, farmers management, only for the farmers, their financial services efficiency will be greatly changed.