What are the chances of winning the new energy first?

Source? |? Automobile grand view

Driven by the wave of the new four modernizations, Volkswagen, once ridiculed as "only building fuel vehicles", finally played its first card in the new energy vehicle market in China.

165438+1On October 3rd, Volkswagen brand pure electric SUV model ID.4 was unveiled in Shenzhen.

As an important product of Volkswagen's electrification layout, ID.4 is not only the first mass-produced model of Volkswagen's pure electric ID family in China, but also regarded by the industry as a symbol of the positive contest between the traditional automobile giants and the new forces of building cars.

According to the planning of Volkswagen brand, ID.4 will be produced by FAW-Volkswagen and SAIC-Volkswagen at the same time, named ID.4? Curly hair and ID.4? Ten.

It is worth noting that these two models are based on Volkswagen's latest MEB platform and E3 electrical architecture. From the public's point of view, MEB platform performs better in software infrastructure control and OTA implementation.

"Compared with competitors, Volkswagen ID series has many advantages," said Feng, CEO of Volkswagen China. Advantages include brand, design and cruising range. "This kind of resources and coverage are not available to many competitors. We hope that Volkswagen will become the first choice brand of new energy vehicles in China. "

"In order to open the market quickly, a two-car strategy was adopted." In the eyes of the industry, several plug-in hybrid models launched by Volkswagen in the early stage are only transitional products, which failed to knock on the door of the domestic new energy vehicle market. "Now the new energy vehicle market is gradually recognized, and the public also wants to use ID. Home has a share in the new energy vehicle market in China. "

However, judging from the reality that Diss, the proponent of the "all-round electrification transformation strategy", is vacillating on the high-tech route, many software and hardware problems need to be solved urgently, and the new force of building cars is growing gradually, it is not easy for Volkswagen to use ID series to "change the gameplay of pure electric market".

As a global automobile giant, it is not too late for Volkswagen to transform into electrification.

However, it started in a passive form.

20 16 Volkswagen was exposed to be suspected of falsifying automobile exhaust emission data. Volkswagen Group, which was deeply involved in the "emission gate" scandal, was not only severely punished, but also CEO Wendeng and several senior executives were forced to step down and even faced jail. At the same time, the reputation of Volkswagen has also been greatly affected.

In order to save the public in from the mire, the decision-making level of Volkswagen Group started Herbert Dis (Herbert? Diess) is the new CEO of the group. I hope he can lead the public out of the "emission gate" quagmire.

Under the great pressure of "emission gate", Diss put forward a comprehensive electrification transformation strategy.

At the end of 20 18, Michael Jost (Michael? Jost) said in an interview with the media that after 2026, Volkswagen Group will no longer develop new internal combustion engine platform models.

When the speech came out, it caused great shock in the industry.

Subsequently, Diss invested heavily to open the modular platform of Volkswagen MEB electric vehicle and the research and development of ID series vehicles based on this platform.

In the face of outside doubts, Diss believes that the future of Volkswagen lies in ID models and should be transformed immediately. According to media reports at that time, "Diss made it clear that only EV based on lithium battery is the future solution, and neither hybrid nor hydrogen fuel cell is the future development direction. Even he threatened the association and Mercedes-Benz and BMW by withdrawing from the German Automobile Industry Association. "

However, Diss's radical play of putting his life and the life of Volkswagen Group on ID series models has not made Volkswagen a leader in the new energy vehicle market.

In 20 19, luxury brands headed by BBA, independent brands and joint venture brands headed by BYD, Geely, GAC New Energy and "Japanese Three Musketeers" increased their layout and launched more pure electric vehicles. Although the actual performance of many models is not excellent, the emergence of a large number of pure electric products has gradually ignited the desire of domestic consumers.

Faced with the strength of many brands and the recovery of the market, the public at this time is very troubled.

As the first model of Volkswagen's electrification transformation, due to software problems, ID.3 cannot be delivered on schedule. Even after the production started, the problem could not be solved, resulting in a large number of new cars having to wait for the perfection of the software in various rented parking lots.

It was not until this year that Volkswagen officially launched the ID series. The price of ID.3 was announced in July, and the product was delivered in September. Subsequently, the first ID.4 for China market was pre-sold on1October 3 165438+. If one word is used to describe the electrification pace of the public, "turtle speed" is very appropriate.

It is worth mentioning that, influenced by the overall electrification strategy of Diss, Golf 8, as a corporate symbol, has also seriously affected its listing due to software problems, and mass dealers have complained about it.

Perhaps the outbreak of various problems led to Edith's forced departure.

As a heavy product of Volkswagen MEB electric vehicle modular platform, it is also the first mass production model of ID. The family is in China, although there are still many key information not disclosed, but from the known data, this car is really coming.

From the aspects of hardware level and vehicle design, ID.4 is not inferior to any electric vehicle launched by traditional car companies, and the 550-kilometer NEDC cruising range is also more competitive and attractive at this time node.

So? Volkswagen ID.4 won a lot of praise as soon as it appeared.

However, Volkswagen ID.4 is not without slots.

Insiders pointed out that in the era of intelligent electrification, the new cars of major brands can't open a real distance in driving performance and endurance, and the core of product competition will focus on intelligent cockpit, intelligent network connection and automatic driving.

These are precisely the shortcomings of traditional car companies, and Volkswagen is no exception.

Some industry organizations pointed out that although the brand-new MEB platform has many advantages, it has excellent performance in system integration and software infrastructure control, but compared with new car-making forces such as Tesla, Tucki and Weilai, as well as brands such as Geely Geometry and GAC New Energy, Volkswagen still has a certain gap in software architecture level.

"Volkswagen is about 0/.5 years behind Tesla/KLOC." The new energy and power equipment team of Industrial Securities believes that in terms of software research and development, the new forces of building cars, including Tesla and Weilai, have advantages over the public in terms of concept innovation and talent recruitment.

The actual product strength of Volkswagen ID.4 also confirms the views of the industry.

In terms of intelligence, the two domestic versions of ID.4 can only be said to keep up with the current mainstream configuration level. Among them, technologies such as L2 autonomous driving, dual-screen, voice interaction and AR-HUD that Volkswagen is proud of have already been mass-produced by a number of independent brands and new car-making forces.

The new energy and power equipment team of Industrial Securities said that the Volkswagen MEB platform is divided into three architectures: ICAS 1, ICAS2 and ICAS3. Although L3-level autopilot can be achieved, it is only equivalent to Tesla's current level.

On the in-vehicle system, ID.4 not only does not use Android system, but also lags far behind the products of domestic mainstream new energy brands such as BYD, Geely Geometry, GAC New Energy and Weilai in terms of UI interface, interaction mode and application richness. At the same time, the above team also pointed out that ID.4 is not expected to be fully implemented in OTA (Remote Update) of firmware and software functions, and only some core functions can be realized for the time being.

At the same time, according to foreign media reports, hundreds of software testers can find about 300 software vulnerabilities on ID.3 every day. From this point of view, ID.4 may have many problems in software.

It is worth noting that the cruising range of ID.4 is also slightly lower than that of Tesla models? 3 is better.

It is understood that ID.4? The battery capacity of the first version of CROZ is 84.8kWh, ID.4? The battery capacity of the scheduled version X is 83.4kWh and the cruising range is 550 kilometers. Although the battery capacity of the two models has been ahead of many competing products and slightly higher than the overseas version of 82Kwh, in terms of battery life, ID.4? Curly hair and ID.4? X is not as good as the model with a battery capacity of only 76.8kWh? 3 single motor long battery life version, the latter NEDC battery life 668 kilometers.

In addition, the performance of Volkswagen ID.4 in hardware is not satisfactory.

Public information shows ID.4? X front wheel hub with disc brake and rear wheel hub with drum brake.

Compared with disc brake, drum brake can reduce the production cost, but it also has the defects of easy overheating and poor braking effect. Statistics show that at present, cars and SUVs with a price of more than 6,543,800 yuan almost don't use drum brakes, but Volkswagen's practice of using drum brakes on 250,000-class models with a view to future technology is really eye-popping.

In the face of doubts, Volkswagen also responded: "Most electric vehicles use front wheel brakes, and the number of brakes is less than that of fuel vehicles. In most cases, the motor alone is enough to slow down. "

Needless to say how far-fetched this explanation is.

Looking at the domestic pure electric new energy vehicle market at this stage, it should be the 200,000-level market in the main battlefield, but it is still depressed.

Despite this, in the industry's view, it is not easy for Volkswagen to gain a foothold in this market segment with ID.4

According to the list released by the passenger car market information association, among the top ten models in the pure electric vehicle market, only Tesla models are sold in the range of 200,000-250,000. 3 and BYD Korea EV.

But next year, this market segment will no longer be "cold". It is understood that 202 1 except Tesla models? 3. In addition to introducing modified models and further exploring prices, brands such as Lectra, Roewe R, Dongfeng Lan Tu and SAIC "L" will launch pure electric vehicles aimed at the high-end market.

Faced with this situation, ID.4 will not be officially listed until the first quarter or even the second quarter of 202/kloc-0? X and ID.4? CROZZ, what kind of competition pattern will it face, and how to break the market advantage built by the new force of head-making cars is a realistic problem that the public has to consider.

Compared with the intensification of market competition, the reliability of ID.4 will be a greater obstacle to the rapid development of the public in the domestic new energy market.

Public information shows that the launch process of Volkswagen ID. The electric car series is not going well. Take the first model ID.3 as an example. On may 20 19, Volkswagen ID.3 began to be pre-sold. However, due to the power failure of 12V battery, the vehicle could not be started, the central control panel was down, and the keyless entry system failed. It was not officially delivered until September this year.

Consider ID.4? Or are there many technical similarities with overseas ID.3 and ID.4? X and ID.4? It is not known whether CROZZ will delay the delivery after listing, or whether there will be many problems in reliability.

In addition, the public seems to have some "regrets" about the "comprehensive electrification transformation strategy" set before.

In July this year, Audi CEO Markus Duzman (Markus? Duesmann) said in an interview with the media that the internal combustion engine will remain active for a long time to come, so Audi will continue to increase its investment in the research and development of internal combustion engines. And Ralph Brandstadt (Ralph? Brandest? Tter) also said that the Volkswagen brand will be active in the field of fuel vehicles for a long time in the future.

The vacillation of the technical route may also make the goal of "becoming the first in the new energy market" full of variables.

Although there are "internal troubles and foreign invasion", the public is not without a chance of winning.

In addition to the "VW" logo recognized by domestic consumers, the unique two-vehicle strategy, brand-new production plants and relatively mature sales and service system are all advantages for Volkswagen to expand the new energy vehicle market.

Moreover, by the end of 2020, the plan of "increasing the number of super charging stations to more than 250, including 3,600 charging piles, covering the whole country 16 cities" will also become a dividend for Volkswagen to gain a firm foothold in the new energy vehicle market.

It seems that for this reason, the public is quite confident in their new energy prospects.

In its global electrification strategy, Volkswagen proposes that by 2025, 80 brand-new electric vehicles will be launched, achieving an annual output of 3 million electric vehicles, of which the China market will account for at least half. According to the relevant contents in the New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (202 1-2035), by 2025, Volkswagen's market share of new energy vehicles in China will reach about 25%.

At the release site of ID.4, Feng also said: "We believe that ID.4 will really change the gameplay, and we firmly believe that the ID family can completely change the automobile market."

In this regard, some insiders said: "ID4. After the subsidy, the price does not exceed 250,000 yuan, and its price has dropped to the fuel vehicle range of Volkswagen. Coupled with the common car tactics of the public, it should be possible to circle some markets. "

This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.