Under the epidemic of not traveling, Japanese and Korean related enterprises seem to have been pressed the pause button.

The stock price plummeted and the loss was irreparable. During this "golden holiday", Japanese and Korean cosmetics companies tried their best to beat Shui Piao.

With the further outbreak of the epidemic in China, the offline and online consumption of the industry has been affected to some extent. In addition to the difficulties of domestic enterprises, the consumption channels supported by many consumers in China have also had a negative impact on the performance of enterprises.

Among them, the most discussed epidemic is undoubtedly the "hardest hit" of China tourists in Asia, including Japan, South Korea and Thailand. Many cosmetic companies were hit hard in the original golden period (Lunar New Year holiday).

Many large cosmetics companies in Japan and South Korea, including Shiseido, Amore Pacific, LG Life Health, etc. Its share price plummeted due to the epidemic, and many local duty-free shops in Japan and South Korea, including Lotte and New World, also tried to reduce losses by shortening business hours and closing stores. However, many professional analysts said that for these cosmetics enterprises closely related to the China market, this influence will continue in the next 2-3 months.

This paper integrates the latest cosmetic industry reports of Japan and South Korea to understand the current situation of severely affected channels in Japan and South Korea.

Japan's frontline battle report. ※。

"Senior, have you seen so few guests during the Spring Festival holiday since you worked?" Hao, who is in charge of consumer tax refund in Osaka Hankyu Department Store, Japan, asked his colleagues next to him.

"I think the number of people in shopping malls this year has at least' disappeared' by half compared with last year. It is also predicted that the number of holidays will increase and the sales staff will increase! " The elder couldn't help sighing and said, "I think there are more staff than people who come to refund taxes."

Similar to the situation of Hankyu Department Store, tourist attractions such as Tokyo, Osaka and Nara in Japan all experienced a sharp drop in passenger flow.

However, department stores and duty-free shops with huge passenger flow have been affected by the epidemic, and many local retailers are also helpless about the sudden consumption downturn.

△ Pedestrians wearing masks in the business district of Japan

In recent years, with the policy support of the Japanese government, the number of Japanese tourists visiting China has increased from 450,000 in 2003 to 8.4 million in 2065, accounting for 27% of Japanese tourists.

However, under the influence of the epidemic, the sales of beauty products, electronic products and electrical appliances retail stores, which were originally the focus of Japanese tourists' visit to China, all dropped sharply.

Laox, a Japanese discount and duty-free retailer, has stocked beauty products popular with China tourists in advance before the festival. Shiseido will recruit new China salespeople in its flagship store in Ginza, Tokyo, because it is expected that there will be "many tourists from China" during the festival.

In fact, most of China's 65.438+06 billion people were grounded because of a man-made disaster. Laox originally predicted that nearly 80,000 Japanese tourists would visit 38 flagship stores in Japan in the 20 days before and after the Spring Festival, but the fact is that the number of people entering the store is less than half of the 66,000 people in the 2065.438+09 holiday.

Since 20th of last month (during the first travel ban in China), the key Japanese Nikkei average index (225) has plummeted, and on 27th of the same month, it hit the biggest one-day drop of nearly 10 months. Share prices of Japanese retailers, cosmetics manufacturers, hotels and scenic spot management companies also fell across the board during this period. The benchmark Dongzheng index fell by 1.6% as a whole, and Shiseido Group also plunged by more than 5.5% on the 27th.

△ Affected by the epidemic, the share prices of many companies continued to fall.

Stephen Innes, chief market strategist of AxiCorp, said: "Next, including beauty retailers, stocks will continue to fall like dominoes."

A spokesperson for Shiseido said: "Although it is not yet possible to confirm how much the company has lost because of the travel restrictions of China citizens, Shiseido's stores in Wuhan have been closed, and because many companies that transport goods in Wuhan have been closed, the impact may be beyond imagination."

After experiencing a sluggish sales of 1 month, Japan reported that local sales may stagnate in the next three months, and some local cosmetics companies' sales expectations for 2020 have declined.

Recently, Meidi Kose Cosmetics Company, one of the three largest cosmetics manufacturers in Japan, lowered its sales and revenue forecast for fiscal year 2020 (April 26th, 20 19 to March 30th, 2020) under the influence of the epidemic. Meidi Kose lowered its estimated annual sales from 352 billion yen (about 22.4 billion yuan) to 330.6 billion yen (about 2 14 billion yuan) and its operating profit from 54 billion yen (about 3.4 billion yuan) to 45 billion yen (about 2.9 billion yuan).

Apart from the decrease of tourists from China, as of February 8, 89 cases of novel coronavirus infection have been confirmed in Japan, and many densely populated places, including Disney, have begun to restrict traffic. At the same time, the government also advises the public to disinfect and isolate in their daily lives.

△ Announcement of setting tips at the entrance of Japan Disneyland

All these factors have certain influence on the future sales of Japanese beauty companies, especially those companies that have penetrated into the China market, such as Shiseido.

Korea Frontier Report. ※.

Like Japan, South China is the first choice for tourists to travel on holiday, while China tourists have also experienced a sharp decline, and store sales are far below expectations.

Li Xunhuan, who works in Lotte Duty Free Shop in Seoul, is very happy that the business hours of the mall have been shortened since the 4th of this month.

"Our salespeople work in the store until 9 o'clock every day, and then clean up the counter and get ready to go home. Now that the shop closes at 6: 30, I spend more time with my family. For the current critical situation, the less I contact people, the more I can protect my own safety. "

Prior to this, Silla Duty Free Shop in Seoul and Lotte Duty Free Shop in Jeju Island had closed their shopping malls because of confirmed cases of novel coronavirus.

"In the last week, there were very few tourists from China who came to the mall, and compared with the long queues at the front of the store, everyone just walked around and didn't stop." Although there is not much business in the store, the loss is not terrible for more mall managers who are worried about the spread of the epidemic.

△ Jeju Island New World Duty Free Shop closes

The manager of Lotte Duty Free Shop in Seoul said: "Last weekend (February 1 ~2), the overall sales of the mall dropped by 30% compared with last weekend. This is the first time I have seen the sales of duty-free shops drop so much since I took office. The counters of popular brands such as Snow Show and Houshang in shopping malls were originally crowded, and now they have sounded the alarm because the sales volume has decreased by as much as 80%. " At the moment when the market was seriously affected, the KOSPI fell by 3.09% at 65438+1October 28th. In the same period, the share prices of Amore Pacific and LG Life Health also fell by 8.47% and 7. 12% respectively.

In addition to cosmetics companies, the Korean market is most affected by tax-free channels. Park Shin Ae, a researcher at KB Financial Securities, said: "Due to the outbreak of novel coronavirus, the share prices of Korean cosmetics companies will continue to fall in the next two to three months." New World, Silla Hotel and Lotte Shopping, the leading duty-free shops in Korea, also fell by 12.07%, 10.3 1% and 7.3 1% respectively.

In addition to reducing business hours, New World, Lotte and other duty-free retail stores also take strict hygiene measures such as setting thermal sensors at the door of the store and disinfecting hand sanitizer.

However, the sharp drop in customers still leads to serious losses in duty-free shops. Park Jong Daae, a financial investment researcher at Asiana, said: "The average daily sales of Silla Duty Free Shop in Seoul during the Spring Festival holiday is estimated to be about 9 billion won (about 53 million yuan), and the average daily loss caused by the epidemic is 65.438 billion won (about 600,000 yuan)."

△ Korean duty-free shops with significantly reduced consumers

Lee Ji Young, a researcher at Hanwha Investment Securities, said that during February 1 ~2, the sales of Lotte Duty Free Shop in three stores in downtown Seoul dropped by 30%.

According to the data of Korea Duty Free Association, the annual sales of duty-free shops in 20 19 reached 24.88 trillion won (about RMB1472.5 billion yuan), an increase of 3 1. 1% compared with 20 18, of which overseas people accounted for 83%.

However, in today's situation, Park Eun Kyung, a researcher at Samsung Securities, said: "The shrinking of tax-free channels in the first half of the year is inevitable, and now SMEs seriously affected by the epidemic are trying to seek government asylum."

Nowadays, with the increasing concern of the public, there are some good signs about the influence of the virus. Not only in China, but also in Japan and South Korea, the whole world is looking forward to the early arrival of this epidemic, and China can also survive as soon as possible.

In the near future, Weibo Hot Search will definitely have the topic # The epidemic is over #. Until then, all we have to do is wait at home. Come on, China!

note:

Nikkei: A stock price index compiled by the Nihon Keizai Shimbun. According to the stocks of 225 companies listed in the primary market of Tokyo Stock Exchange, the revised average share price reflecting the changes of Japanese market economy is calculated.

Korea KOSPI Index: Korea Composite Stock Index, which is the stock index of Korea Stock Exchange.

Source | Bloomberg, Korean Al Jazeera, Naver

Yonhap News Agency and Nikkei Asian Review