The Classic Battle of Futures Suzhou Red Bean Event

1. Introduction of adzuki bean futures market

Adzuki bean is a kind of small miscellaneous grains with high protein, low fat and many nutrients, and its planting area in the world is relatively small. China is the country with the largest planting area and the highest output of adzuki beans in the world, with an annual output of 300,000-400,000 tons, a considerable part of which is exported to Japan, South Korea and Southeast Asian countries. Japan is the largest consumer of adzuki beans in the world, with an annual consumption of 6,543.8+10,000-6,543.8+2,000 tons, while the annual output is only 60,000-90,000 tons. Most of the adzuki beans are imported from China, and the import volume plays a decisive role in the price trend of adzuki beans in the international market.

There are 10 kinds of high-quality adzuki beans in China, such as Zhuhong adzuki beans (also known as Tianjin adzuki beans, mainly distributed in Tianjin, Hebei, Shanxi and Shaanxi), Tangshanhong (Yutian, Tangshan and its nearby areas in Hebei), Baoqinghong (Baoqing, Heilongjiang and its surrounding areas) and Dahongpao (Qidong, Jiangsu). Among them, Zhuhong adzuki beans enjoy a high reputation in Japan for their unique excellent quality. The annual output of adzuki beans is about 60,000 tons, mainly exported to Japan, South Korea and Southeast Asian countries.

The output of adzuki bean is greatly influenced by natural conditions, climate change and market demand at home and abroad, and the price fluctuates frequently. In the early 1950s, Japan introduced adzuki bean futures contract trading for the first time in the world. The adzuki bean futures contract of Tokyo Grain Exchange has become the most influential adzuki bean futures market in the world after nearly half a century of transformation, supplement and perfection.

Since 1990s, China has been exploring how to use adzuki bean futures trading to serve production and circulation. Eight exchanges including Beijing, Shanghai, Dalian, Changchun and Hainan have launched adzuki bean futures trading, among which Tianjin Stock Exchange and Suzhou Stock Exchange are the most active. In this round of market variety adjustment, adzuki beans have been preserved and will be listed and traded on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange.

II. Summary of adzuki bean futures trading

Phase I: 65438+September 0994-65438+1October 0996, online.

Due to the successful example of adzuki bean futures trading in Tokyo Grain Exchange and the leading position of vermilion adzuki bean produced in Tianjin and its vicinity (1993 exported more than 50,000 tons of adzuki bean to Japan through Tianjin Port), Tianjin Stock Exchange took the lead in launching adzuki bean futures contracts for trading in September. The subject matter of the transaction is Tianjin adzuki bean, which can be delivered instead of Tokyo Grain Exchange, and Baoqinghong and Tangshan Red adzuki bean can be delivered at a premium. In June 1994, 165438+ 10, it is stipulated that ordinary adzuki beans can also be delivered at a premium.

Shortly after Tianjin Red went public, the price went down step by step, from 5600 yuan/ton in the 503 contract to 3680 yuan/ton. After the listing of the 507 contract, futures prices fell all the way because of the continuous downturn in the spot market. When its price dropped to around 3,800 yuan/ton, the bulls bought a lot of cash in the spot market on the one hand, and absorbed enough chips at the low level on the other hand, gradually pushing up the futures price. With the participation of hot money in the market, since mid-May, the trading volume and positions of 507 contracts have begun to enlarge. At the beginning of June, the bulls began to exert their strength and pulled two daily limit boards, which rose to 5 1, 5 1 yuan/ton. In order to curb excessive speculation, the exchange issued a series of documents on the 6th, 7th and 8th to increase the trading margin. On the 9th, market bulls pushed forward the futures price to 5000 yuan and 4980 yuan. By 9: 30, all the terminals in the market were closed. The next day, the exchange announced that the 9 th trading was invalid and the 507 contract was closed for two days. Subsequently, the exchange took measures to require members to close their positions. This is the "Tianjin Red 507 Incident".

65438+June 0995-65438+1October 0996 Suzhou Red Futures came from behind.

Suzhou Commodity Exchange officially launched adzuki bean futures contract trading on 1 June, 19951day, and the subject matter of the transaction was second-class adzuki bean. Due to the sluggish spot market of adzuki beans, the Su Hong 1995 series contracts faced huge firm pressure as soon as they were listed, and the warehouse inventory continued to increase, which led to a new low futures price of 95 1 1 hitting a low price of 1640 yuan/ton. The depressed futures price, 1995 red bean production reduction and other bullish news prompted a large amount of funds to enter the market. With the listing of 1996 contracts, the main bulls took advantage of the defects in the delivery terms of the exchange and the restrictions on positions, and deliberately forced positions on 1996 series contracts with the support of bullish news. The futures price of 9602 contract started at 3380 yuan/ton in the middle of June 5438+1October, and rose to a high of 4 155 yuan/ton on October 9, and then fell back to sort out, and entered the skyrocketing stage in June 5438+February. 65438+February 15, the SSE informed that it was forbidden to deliver old beans and new beans, and the inventory announced in June 19 was only 5450 yuan/ton. The bulls took the opportunity to speculate wildly, and the price rose from 3690 yuan/ton to 5325 yuan/ton in the past month. Short sellers suffered heavy losses and exploded many hedgers at the same time.

1996 1.8, China Securities Regulatory Commission thinks that Suzhou adzuki bean contracts and trading rules are not perfect, and requires all positions to be lightened, and no forward contracts can be opened after 9608. On 1.9 and 10, Suzhou Red stopped trading without opening the market, which made the bulls with high positions face the risk of short positions and huge losses. After that, the Soviet Stock Exchange launched a series of compulsory liquidation measures, and futures prices fell sharply. On March 8, the CSRC issued a notice to stop the trading of adzuki bean futures contracts on the Soviet Stock Exchange.

Phase II:1February 996-19971October, the exchange revised the delivery terms, the 9609 incident broke out, and the exchange strengthened risk monitoring.

After the Suzhou adzuki bean incident, adzuki beans originally stored in the delivery warehouse of the Soviet Stock Exchange flooded into the Tianjin market. In order to prevent risks, the maximum delivery volume stipulated by Tianlian Institute is 60,000 tons. The bulls then concentrated their capital advantages, unified deployment, and manipulated the market by means of knocking, moving positions, exceeding positions, etc., which made the contract of 1996 show the trend of several consecutive short positions, which eventually led to the 9609 incident, which once again sounded the alarm for the risk supervision of the exchange. At the end of that year, stimulated by the dim import quota of Japanese adzuki beans, the futures price rose further, and the 9705 contract reached 6800 yuan/ton at the beginning of 1997. Before the Spring Festival of 1997 to the end of 10, the futures price showed a downward trend to seek support, which failed to reverse the trend.