House prices in Shenzhen skyrocketed for a year. Can college students afford to leave at high prices?

What kind of chain reaction will Shenzhen's high property prices bring? With such a high growth rate of property prices, will Shenzhen become an "uninhabitable" city? Why is Beishangguang not as good as Shenzhen? Will Guangzhou and other Pearl River Delta cities follow in Shenzhen's footsteps and take off?

Diffuse "panic buying" mentality

At the end of 20 15, the cold wave just arrived, and the rain in early winter chilled Qiu Min's heart. Looking at the rising house prices around him, Qiu Min was deeply frustrated and felt that he had done nothing in the past two years.

Qiu Min hasn't returned to his hometown in Hebei for the Spring Festival for four years. In recent years, he has invited the old people from his family to Shenzhen for the Spring Festival. Although it is a rental house, the family gets together and the rental house also feels at home.

However, Pengcheng has made him a "new Shenzhen native" who has struggled in the local area for nearly eight years more and more unfamiliar. "Yes, our economy is very dynamic, our industrial structure is very reasonable, and there are many rich people. However, the price of real estate doubles or triples every year, and there is no place in the world that rises like this, which makes people feel no sense of belonging. "

"If you don't buy it again, you can't afford it in this life!"

However, if you don't buy, you can't afford it. Some time ago, Qiu Min wanted to snap up a 90-square-meter educational real estate in Bantian, Longgang. At the beginning of the year, it was still 26,000 yuan/square meter. By the end of the year, he went to buy it, and it was already 40 thousand yuan. A 90-square-meter house is 6.5438+0.26 million yuan more than the original budget. According to his annual income of about 300 thousand, it is equivalent to working for four years in vain. He thought that 3.6 million could buy several villas in his hometown. After a little hesitation, the house will be gone! He was also scolded by his wife for his lack of courage.

Another story about selling a house happened in Cheng Yijia of Old Shenzhen. She has been in Shenzhen for more than 30 years, originally living in Sha Tau Kok, and later moved to a community near Xiangmihu. In August this year, my daughter said that she needed funds to invest in a project. After discussion at home, I bought this 120 square meter house for more than 800,000 yuan in 2000. Now the appraisal price is close to 6 million, which has increased seven times and almost reached the top. So, Franz Chen decided to sell the house! In August 1 1, it was listed at 5.9 million yuan. Someone made an inquiry that day and looked at the house. That night, the intermediary replied: The other party wants it!

Within a day, Franz Chen sold the house. I thought it was the end of a "grand slam", but recently Cheng Yi was a little at a loss. Her former neighbor told her that her apartment is now worth 7.9 million yuan!

About 4 months, I lost 2 million.

Shenzhen people are not surprised by this story of "buying a house without buying it" or "selling a house in one day", but the mentality of "panic buying a house" behind it is very intriguing.

Judging from the experience of all cities in history, houses are bought up and not bought down. The more you go up, the more you rob, and the more you go down, the more nobody cares. Shenzhen undoubtedly participated in this snapping up. June 2065438+June 20051October to June 2065438+June 20654381October, the supply area of first-hand houses in Shenzhen was 6.302 million square meters, and the transaction area was 5.9809 million square meters, which basically depended on supply.

Heaven on the left and Shenzhen on the right?

This young city has always been famous for its vitality and cruelty.

"Why have a good life, still feel so sad? Living in two rented rooms in the city center, I have been in a bad mood. For this 80 square cube, I will spend nearly 4 million yuan. My family can't save this 4 million even in 30 years. Why do a couple with higher education have to work for this poor landlord with no education for 30 years to change this poor house? It's so annoying. " Wang Dong's post on Tianya caused quite a stir.

After graduating from graduate school, she worked in Shenzhen, and the husband and wife earned more than 400,000 yuan after tax. At present, Shenzhen, with high housing prices, forces her to buy a house in Dongguan, pay the house and rent, raise children, foster parents and keep a car, accounting for more than half. "If you save money every year, it will be hundreds of thousands, so you can't keep up with this crazy house price."

Although a professional manager of a local real estate company in Shenzhen, who did not want to be named, is a "vested interest" in Shenzhen's high housing prices, he also privately revealed his concerns to reporters:

The future of Shenzhen needs the support of many high-quality talents, but high housing prices have overdrawn their future reserve capacity and pension capacity. Such a property market is really worrying.

Shenzhen has a young population, and the "post-80s" have become the main force in buying houses in Shenzhen. However, how many post-80s can afford to buy a house in Shenzhen by themselves? More is to sell the house in my hometown, or get old, or be heavily in debt, and realize my dream of buying a house in Shenzhen. "Futian's new site is not less than 7. 1 10,000 square meters, and even the second-hand dilapidated buildings in the 1980 s have to be 4. 1 10,000 square meters."

Many Shenzhen people interviewed said that the "crowding-out effect" brought by high living costs and fierce competition has emerged. In the secondary company of a listed company, every year, college graduates quit because they can't stand the high housing prices in Shenzhen, and the turnover rate in these two years is as high as 17%.

Of course, there are people who leave and come back. New people keep pouring into Shenzhen and leaving.

It is worth noting that a month ago, on June 5438+065438+ 10/5, Xu Qin, the mayor of Shenzhen, talked about housing prices at the press conference of China International Hi-tech Fair on June 17. He believes that high housing prices are a big problem that needs to be studied in Shenzhen, which must be faced correctly and solved actively. He said that it is necessary to carry out in-depth talent housing projects to balance housing prices, which is also a problem that Shenzhen should actively explore and solve in the 13 th Five-Year Plan.

Reportedly, the sales price of talent housing projects is about 50%-70% of the market price. "We hope that through innovation, entrepreneurship and creation, we will continuously improve product quality and enterprise efficiency, create more added value, make the created value rise faster than the house price, enable citizens' income to pay the existing cost of living, and continuously improve the quality of life". Xu Qin said.

Is Guangzhou-Shenzhen property price comparable?

As the "Gemini" of the Pearl River Delta, Guangzhou and Shenzhen are often compared.

More than one Shenzhen person despises and proudly throws such words: Guangzhou is the Guangzhou of Cantonese; But Shenzhen is the national Shenzhen. They believe that people from all over the country come to Shenzhen to buy houses, which has led to the rise of housing prices in Shenzhen.

However, most people in the industry believe that Guangzhou and Shenzhen are not comparable in terms of housing prices. Shenzhen has a small land and a large population, which is not comparable to other first-tier cities in China. According to the analysis of insiders, this round of housing price growth in Guangzhou seems to be slow, because Guangzhou can effectively spread the demand for housing to Zengcheng and Huadu, while the plates in Shenzhen are so big and the conditions are slightly better, and there is almost nowhere to find them.

However, the current crazy gathering of capital in Shenzhen property market has attracted the attention of a considerable number of people in the industry. Cai Suisheng, president of the Board of Directors of Guangdong Real Estate Association, declined the interview, saying that the current situation in Shenzhen needs more observation.

In his column, Ban Qiu also quoted the outside view that the population growth in Shenzhen has slowed down, and the financial industry, high-tech industry and Internet industry, which had developed rapidly before, have all started to decline, and private financial capital may face collapse. With the overall economic downturn, Shenzhen's "outstanding" situation will definitely change, and it is likely to drop by 15% by the end of the year. The industry believes that housing prices in Guangzhou are relatively safe.

Will the skyrocketing in Shenzhen be replicated?

According to the monitoring data of China Index Academy, the average price of 20 15 10 new houses in Shenzhen is 40 120 yuan/square meter. The average listing price of second-hand houses continued to rise, reaching 45,603 yuan/square meter, up 3.6% month-on-month and 5 1. 1% year-on-year. Among 70 cities, Shenzhen property market still ranks first in the year-on-year growth list, accounting for 40.5%. Second-hand housing prices rose by 36.8% year-on-year, still leading the country. Judging from the market of each district, the average transaction price in Nanshan District is the highest, which is 56,463 yuan/m 2.

However, the transaction activity of the second-hand property market has dropped sharply. According to the data provided by relevant departments, in June 5438+ 10, the second-hand housing market in Shenzhen showed a rise in volume and price, and the transaction area decreased by 42.8% from the previous month. It reflects the weakening of buyers' willingness to enter the market and a strong wait-and-see mood. Second-hand housing owners' expectations for the market outlook are still high, which leads to a continuous increase in prices, but the volume of transactions continues to decline.

Where is the Shenzhen property market going?

Almost all people in the industry talked about "3? 30 New Deal ". That is, on March 30th this year, the People's Bank of China, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, and the China Banking Regulatory Commission jointly issued the Notice on Issues Related to Individual Housing Loan Policy, which adjusted the minimum down payment ratio for second homes to not less than 40%. Later, with the housing prices in Shenzhen, the "Japanese CD" reappeared in the rivers and lakes. "Originally, Shenzhen was sparsely populated and there was no need to save the market. As a result, most wage earners really can't afford a house. " An industry insider who did not want to be named commented on this.

(The above answers were published on 20 15- 12-25, and the current relevant housing purchase policies should be based on the actual situation. )

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