What is the Russia-Georgia conflict?

I will talk about four aspects about this Georgia-Russia conflict.

I. Characteristics of the Georgian-Russian conflict

1. Georgia is active and Russia is passive.

It can be seen from the news that Georgia launched an active attack on Tskhinvali, the capital of South Ossetia, and claimed to have controlled Tskhinvali, the capital of South Ossetia. This shows that Georgia is ready to provoke a war conflict.

Georgia took the initiative and Russia responded quickly. It shows that Russia also has this plan. After all, the conflict in South Ossetia has always existed and has been in a state of war. It is impossible for Russia not to have a war plan in this regard.

2. The timing is very sensitive.

The war broke out at the opening moment of the Olympic Games. During the Olympic Games, countries have always advocated a truce.

During the Olympic Games, Georgia launched an active attack, which showed that it was very lucky.

3. Asymmetric power.

Russia, as a powerful country, and Georgia, as a weak military country, are asymmetrical in military, political and economic aspects.

4. The main force of participation.

The supporting forces behind Georgia are the United States and the European Union, and the supporting forces behind South Ossetia are Russia. Of course, China is also involved, and we can become Russian supporters politically.

This profoundly shows that the contradiction in South Ossetia is not only the contradiction between Russia and Georgia, but also the contradiction between big countries vying for strategic positions, which is a point of geopolitical strategic confrontation among big countries. This also determines the future development direction and trend of the conflict in South Ossetia.

Second, the strategic intentions of all parties.

1. The strategic intention of the United States.

As a weak country, Georgia dares to challenge Russia's strategic interests. Last time I dared to detain Russian missiles and armed personnel, it showed that Georgia had something.

Georgia's role, in the eyes of the United States, is not great. There are two main functions: one is to use Georgia to contain Russia and use Georgia as a pawn to restrict Russia's development and South Caucasus strategy. However, Georgia is too weak to undertake the heavy responsibility of restricting and consuming Russia. Therefore, when playing this card, it should be timely and appropriate. Timely means at the right time, otherwise it may be eaten by Russia. The doctrine of the mean mainly plays a political role, in other words, it is mainly used to disgust Russia, tarnish its international image and arouse the vigilance and vigilance of the former Soviet Union countries against Russia.

The second is to use Georgia to provoke the contradiction between Russia and the EU. In this regard, I mentioned in some articles that the United States is trying to provoke contradictions between Russia and the European Union. Kosovo's independence, South Ossetia and anti-missile issues in Central and Eastern Europe are all triggers to provoke the strategic conflict between Russia and Europe.

Under the current strategic situation, the United States urgently needs to attack the euro. To attack the euro, it needs to start a war. Kosovo and Georgia are possible options.

Therefore, the United States instigated Georgia to take the initiative to attack South Ossetia at this time, indicating that its strategic intention is obvious, that is, to provoke a strategic conflict between Russia and Europe, and even a strategic conflict between NATO and Russia.

2. The strategic intention of the EU.

For the EU, France and Germany are hiding something. Because the strategic intention of China, France and Germany in the EU does not represent the strategic intention of the EU. There are many small countries in the EU. Most of these small countries prefer to rely on the United States rather than France and Germany in national security, mainly due to geopolitical strategic factors and historical contradictions.

For Georgia, it is related to the energy security and pipeline direction of the Caspian Sea in the future, so the EU will pay attention to Georgia.

To some extent, France and Germany in the EU do not want to confront Russia at present, which shows that France and Germany, which have strategic ambitions in the EU, have little strength and determination to support Georgia strategically.

This is a direction that Russia can develop, that is, moderately win over and divide the EU and avoid the intensification of contradictions between Europe and Russia.

This determination and strength should be resolved by political means under the situation of strong provocation by the United States and under the strategic situation that the United States wants to crack down on the euro.

3. Russia's strategic intention

For Russia, restoring the territory and sphere of influence of the former Soviet Union is its persistent goal. Recently, Russia has shown a strategic posture of global military presence, which shows that Russia's hegemonic strategic thinking has not changed, and Russian culture determines that it will not give up its hegemonic intention unless it has no chance.

For Russia, Georgia is a chicken rib to restore the territory of the former Soviet Union. If killed well, it can deter the former Soviet neighbors who want to take refuge in the United States, the European Union and even China.

Moreover, controlling Georgia can better grasp the future energy pipeline of Caspian oil to the EU. Russia's strategic focus is to integrate the Caspian oil system and enhance its control over Caspian oil in the next step.

Therefore, Georgia is a contradiction that Russia cannot bypass, and it also determines Russia's strategic determination and will. When the time is right, it will become very determined.

4. Georgia's strategic intentions

Georgia is a tiny place, and its fate determines that it can only rely on big countries to survive. Either take refuge in Russia or in the United States or the European Union.

Georgia is now relying on the United States, because in their eyes, the United States is still the most powerful, and the United States can support them and benefit them.

However, Georgia knows that the cost of confronting Russia is very small, so its strategic will to confront Russia alone must be indecisive and firm. Taking advantage of the Olympic Games to attack South Ossetia suddenly shows the adventure and strategic passivity of its military action.

The so-called strategic passivity means that Georgia is only blindly implementing the strategic intention of the American master. Although there are certain military preparations, there is no overall strategic planning at all. What if we occupy South Ossetia? What if Russia strikes back? How much strategic support can the United States provide to Georgia? And so on, are all strategic overall issues that Georgia must consider when it takes the initiative to launch an attack. Judging from the current strategic situation, Georgian policy makers simply do not have a comprehensive strategic plan in this regard, because they do not understand the current trend of world strategy and the trend and internal reality of the struggle of world powers.

Three. Possible outcomes of the Georgian-Russian conflict

Judging from the strategic intention and power situation of the above four parties, this conflict will be stopped in time, but the crisis will not end and will erupt again at any time.

The first possibility: Russia completely intervenes in Georgia and then achieves a political solution.

Under the current strategic situation, the United States is unable to give Georgia firm and powerful military support; The EU will not be able to support Georgia militarily, even if it is unwilling to learn from the Kosovo war and wants to challenge the hegemonic interests of the United States. This determines that although Georgia has the right to wage war, it has no right to end it.

To some extent, Russia has always adopted a strategic policy of playing hard to get. Last time Georgia detained Russian missiles and armed personnel, Russia refused to send them, which shows that Russia is showing weakness. The fundamental purpose of weakness is to wait for the opportunity to repair Georgia in a timely and appropriate manner.

Georgia's strategic role, weak strength and insufficient strategic support determine that Georgia seems to take the initiative to attack, but in fact it falls into the strategic trap of Russia and is doomed to pay a heavy price. This is the fate of small countries.

When Russia completely controls South Ossetia and completely weakens Georgia's main force, Russia will use the United Nations to solve this crisis.

Therefore, the key factors that determine this war crisis are the degree of Russian control over South Ossetia and the degree of attack on Georgia's main forces.

When these two goals are achieved, it is time for Russia to use the United Nations to solve this crisis. Or bilateral negotiations between Russia and Georgia to resolve this crisis.

The second possibility: the war escalated and NATO intervened, forming the Kosovo war model.

The key to the escalation of the Russian-Georgian conflict war is to see whether the EU's strategic determination and will are strong.

Judging from the current strategic situation, the EU is well aware of the strategic intention of the United States, and it is estimated that the EU will not be fooled. After all, Russia today is different from Russia in the past, and the United States today is not as powerful as the United States in the past.

Therefore, it is unlikely that this war will escalate, because the strategic determination and will of the United States and Europe are not strong, and the strategic will is not completely unified.

The EU will rely on the United Nations to ease the crisis, and the United States will rely on NATO to give Russia enough strategic pressure to control the crisis.

As for Russia, because it knows the truth of the United States, because it is backed by Shanghe, because it has an oil dividend, and because its strength has recovered, it has a strong determination and will to fight.

Fourth, the countermeasures of all parties

1. American countermeasures.

The strategic intention of the United States determines its strategic countermeasures, that is, within the United Nations, the European Union and NATO, the strategic intention is unified to contain Russia's military actions; Support Georgia militarily, so that it can do the greatest possible harm to Russia, and even evolve into a lasting terrorist activity to consume Russia.

Our next step is mainly to look at the diplomatic activities of the United States, especially within the United Nations, the European Union and NATO, as well as the import of Georgian military equipment and the extent of the attack on Russia, so as to make evidence and judgment.

2. EU's countermeasures.

France and Germany in the European Union will not firmly support Georgia's strategic will, nor will they firmly confront Russia's strategic intention directly. This determines the differences within the EU and NATO.

Our next step is mainly to look at the intentions of China, France and Germany in the EU at the United Nations, within the EU and within NATO. It should be said that Germany's strategic proposition should mainly focus on relying on the United Nations to solve it, or directly negotiating with Russia to solve it.

3. Russia's countermeasures.

Russia's countermeasures should be to "control South Ossetia, weaken Georgia's military strength, win over Central Europe and ignore the United States".

Controlling South Ossetia has achieved the strategic goal before the conflict and maintained a state of losing ground; Weaken Georgia's military strength, lay the foundation for recovering Georgia in the next step and prepare for negotiations; To win over the EU is to divide and disintegrate NATO and avoid its own strategic passivity. Ignore the United States because you know that the mastermind behind it is the United States. And, of course, China's support.

4. Georgia's countermeasures.

Georgia's response is to threaten Russia with people's war and even terrorist attacks. Judging from the remarks made by the Georgian President on the first day, this is a prescription prescribed by the United States, and it also shows the strategic attitude that the United States does not want direct military intervention.

Therefore, the fate of Georgia's pawns in this conflict is doomed, and so is its loss.

5. China's countermeasures.

China's support for Russia is affirmative, but the ways and intensity of support are different in size and degree. Within the United Nations, China can secretly support Russia and give it political support. China can also act as a mediator between Europe and Russia, bring about conflicts between Georgia and Russia, and make Russia, Europe and China reach an agreement to isolate the United States.