Wuxi's New Deal "Trap" Yangtze River Delta ushered in a new round of regulation and upgrading.

In order to curb speculative real estate speculation and fill the policy gap, on August 30th, Wuxi, Jiangsu Province issued the Notice of the Office of the Municipal Government on Further Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market in our city (hereinafter referred to as the Notice).

The Notice issued this time further upgraded the purchase restriction policy. On the basis of the existing housing purchase restriction policy, the restrictions on the number of divorced families buying houses have been increased. If the husband and wife are required to buy commercial housing within two years after divorce, the number of houses they own shall be calculated according to the number of houses owned by the family in the urban area of this city before divorce. While meeting the reasonable housing demand, people should be prevented from obtaining the qualification of buying houses through "fake divorce".

At the same time, Wuxi New Deal also tightened the tax-included content and loan policy of housing transactions, and severely cracked down on the speculation of the concept of school district housing and the bid-up of second-hand housing prices.

In fact, in the Yangtze River Delta region after the epidemic, key cities such as Hangzhou, Shanghai and Nanjing took the lead in starting the property market, and then Ningbo, Nantong, Changzhou, Xuzhou and Wuxi around these cities also started one after another.

Previously, on August 26th, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development (hereinafter referred to as "the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development") held some urban real estate work meetings in Beijing. The meeting demanded that the main responsibility of the city should be effectively implemented, the work initiative should be improved, and targeted measures should be taken in time to ensure the realization of stable land prices, stable housing prices and stable expectations.

It is noteworthy that six cities including Shenyang, Changchun, Chengdu, Yinchuan, Tangshan and Changzhou also attended the meeting. Among them, Changzhou, which was "interviewed", ranked 12 nationwide in June this year with a 0.8% increase in second-hand house prices, ranking third in the province, surpassing Nanjing and Wuxi.

Governance and upgrading of the Yangtze River Delta

Wuxi's purchase restriction upgrade is expected by the industry. According to the analysis of local market participants and industry analysts in Wuxi, there are three reasons:

First of all, since June, the local auction market in Wuxi has hit record highs. Foreign real estate enterprises entered Wuxi local auction market on a large scale, and Suntech, Yuzhou and Dafa entered Wuxi for the first time. It is a fact that in the past five years, the land price in Wuxi has gradually increased, and the land price has increased faster and faster. In 20 19, the total land supply in Wuxi was 47,906.73 mu, and the total transfer fee was 73.269 billion yuan, up 21.14% year-on-year; In 2020, Wuxi plans to sell 520 hectares of residential land (including 300 hectares of commercial residential land) and 50 hectares of commercial service land. It is estimated that the transfer area of ordinary residential land will increase by no less than 50 hectares in 2020 compared with the previous year.

The land market is heavy, and housing enterprises are moving at the wind. At the beginning of June, a piece of land in Wuxi Harmonious Mouth Plate triggered 20 developers including Shimao, Zhuo Yue, Jianfa, Zhonghai, Yin Cheng, three sheng, Jinke and Poly to register for competition. After three hours of fierce fighting and 154 rounds of bidding, three sheng Group won the bid at18.52 million yuan, and the floor price was 1954.

Why is Wuxi land market hot in August? In addition to the strategic layout needs of small and medium-sized housing enterprises in cities around the metropolitan area, Wuxi's property market sales and rising house prices are also helpful. Since July, the transaction volume of new and second-hand houses in Wuxi has both increased, the prices of several real estates have been raised, and some sectors even have no houses for sale. In fact, there is no shortage of houses in Wuxi. In June 2020, the area of commercial housing for sale in Wuxi was 48 1.44 million square meters, up 2.6% from the previous month. According to the average sales situation in the past six months, the clearance period is 1.35 months, which is 0.6 months shorter than last month.

Secondly, the market pressure is high and the credit policy is not loose. M2 growth rate returned to the high level of 1 1%, and new loans reached a new high in the first half of 2020. In terms of capital cost, in the first half of 2020, interest rates were cut twice: data show that since 2020, the real interest rate (1 annual LPR) has been reduced by 30 basis points, from 4. 15% to 3.85%; The property market interest rate (5-year LPR) was lowered by 15 basis points, from 4.8% to 4.65%. However, personal credit has not been loosened simultaneously, and the down payment ratio and mortgage base have not weakened this year. Especially with the introduction of the "three red lines" policy, there are signs of tightening from credit to capital in the market, and Wuxi is no exception. Where does the hot money come from? This is a matter of great concern to the regulatory authorities at present.

Finally, the illegal inflow of funds into the housing market has always been the focus of supervision. Not long ago, the CSRC concentrated on exposing 258 illegal fund-raising platform institutions. At present, it is to prevent hot money from flowing into the stock market and the property market. July 165438+

Wuxi is not an isolated case. Looking at the whole country, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Shenzhen and Chengdu all have a high proportion of subscribed houses, and there is a large-scale lottery in Jiangbei, Nanjing. Cities around these high-energy cities have also started to catch fire. Wuxi's regulation and upgrading is not the first case in the Yangtze River Delta. Insiders pointed out that Wuxi pays more attention to policy patches.

An industry insider pointed out that this round of regulation and upgrading in second-and third-tier cities in the Yangtze River Delta has both market characteristics and differentiation. Nantong is mainly due to the promotion of investment enthusiasm brought by the improvement of urban energy level, and also promotes the promotion of sales. From the second half of last year to the first half of this year, the Nantong market has hardly cooled down.

Due to the fierce competition in Suning, the land price has become higher, and the profits of housing enterprises have been squeezed, and they have begun to look for other profit highlands. From the perspective of investment rotation, Wuxi, Changzhou and Xuzhou are weak second-tier and strong third-tier cities in Jiangsu, and these cities have also begun to heat up in this key city in the echelon. Since June, the growth rate of first-hand housing in Changzhou has accelerated. The prices of several newly-opened properties are above 6.5438+0.6 million yuan/square meter, and several high-priced markets with 20,000 yuan/square meter have entered the market. In this year's land auction, Changzhou has auctioned 15 plot, and the floor price exceeds 1000 yuan/square meter, and the land price has increased significantly. Like other cities, Changzhou property market also has the phenomenon of continuous price increase of second-hand houses, overheated land auction and loose credit.

Wuxi and Xuzhou are similar, and the rise in land prices has also driven the entire sales market to a certain extent.

Demand side or shrinking

At the meeting on August 26, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development proposed that we should attach great importance to the outstanding problems in the current real estate market and always tighten the string of real estate market regulation. We must adhere to the problem orientation, make precise policies, and solve problems from the source. Cities with prominent contradiction between housing supply and demand should increase the supply of housing and land, support reasonable demand for self-occupation and resolutely curb speculative real estate speculation.

Under the adjustment and upgrading, the demand side may shrink. Zhang Li, a native of Changzhou, will get the pre-sale certificate in the near future, but she has a hunch that Changzhou will have a New Deal before the project opens. Zhang Li already has a suite in his name. If Changzhou has a new policy, involving the down payment of the second suite, her ability to pay will be problematic, so it is possible to give up the purchase.

Take Ningbo as an example. In June, 2020, the number of new residential buildings in Ningbo rose by 1.33%, surpassing Shanghai, Hangzhou, Dongguan and other cities, ranking first in the country. In June, the average price of second-hand houses in Ningbo rose by 1.6% month-on-month, ranking second among core cities and fourth among 62 cities in China. The average price continued to rise, reaching 2367 1 yuan/square meter at the end of June.

On June 24th, 12 housing enterprises flooded into Ningbo. After 6 hours and 495 rounds of fighting, Greentown finally won the plot JD07-05-08 (Minglou Lot) in Yinzhou District at a price of 32,520 yuan /m2, setting a new floor price record in Ningbo.

On the evening of July 6th 10, the four departments of Ningbo jointly issued the Notice on Further Maintaining and Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market in our city, and put forward ten new policies to stabilize the real estate market. The New Deal expanded the scope of Ningbo's purchase restriction, adjusted the bidding rules for residential land transfer, and strictly controlled the floor price. Subsequently, the transaction volume of Ningbo property market began to shrink, and the inventory of second-hand houses rose, resulting in oversupply.

After Wuxi's purchase restriction upgrade, will the transaction volume of the property market face a decline? The aforementioned insiders pointed out that the gradual warming of the Wuxi property market has released a signal of tightening, and the next September will be the policy digestion period. Wuxi's land market and housing market as a whole will tend to be stable, and prices will not fluctuate too much.

In the second half of the year, under the pressure of withdrawing funds, housing enterprises will definitely speed up shipments. Head housing enterprises and medium-sized housing enterprises, including Shimao and Xuhui, made it clear at the performance conference of the interim report that supply should be accelerated in the third quarter. Then, with the previous urban inventory, the second-and third-tier cities in the Yangtze River Delta will face the problem of destocking in this round of adjustment and upgrading.

For the housing enterprises that accelerated land acquisition in the first half of the year, in addition to reducing leverage and expanding financing to ensure the safety of funds, they also have to face the possible shrinking market demand after this round of regulation and upgrading.

On August 3 1, at the interim results conference of Xinli Holdings, Chen Kai, co-chairman, chief executive officer and executive director of the company, pointed out that the investment demand of the industry will be squeezed in the future, the profits of housing enterprises will be squeezed, and the competitive pattern of the industry will also undergo tremendous changes.