America may be stronger, but it is hard to be great. Why do you say that?

Like his predecessor, Trump is fully aware of the urgent need to adjust the international role of the United States, but he stubbornly chooses to retreat-this must not be an option for a big country.

2018 65438+1October 20th, for many people, this is just the beginning of another weekend, but for the United States, this is Donald Trump's 365th day in charge of the White House. When the first year of Carter's administration just whizzed by, both the United States and the whole world were reviewing and evaluating the so-called "making America strong again."

The economy is improving and social contradictions are frequent.

As far as the United States is concerned, the biggest highlight of Trump's first year in office occurred in the economic field without any suspense. The lowest unemployment rate since the new century, seemingly good GDP growth rate, strong performance of securities and financial markets, and almost all mainstream statistics prove that the US economy is improving. The reason is, of course, a huge driving force for long-term recovery, and measures such as focusing on the economy and deregulation since the Trump administration took office have continued to inject vitality into the market. Although these measures risk triggering a financial bubble again, they are still playing a positive role at least so far. The tax reduction legislation finalized at the end of 20 17 is only a major political victory of the trump administration, but it can also be regarded as a major key commitment in the economic field.

It is worth pondering that the obvious improvement of the economy has not brought real stability at the social level. In the first year of Trump's administration, the United States was completely involved in the unstable vortex of frequent social contradictions. From the racial violence in Charlottesville, to the shooting in Las Vegas, to the terrorist attack of a truck hitting a person in new york ... the unexpected events wrapped in the traditional ills and practical difficulties of American society are overwhelming.

In the face of social problems, the Trump administration has chosen to either adhere to useless traditions and partisan positions or adopt a more extreme "nativism" agenda. The most typical performance is the so-called "immigration ban", which represents the Trump administration's extremely conservative position on immigration issues. For this "immigrant country" that calls itself a "melting pot", it is doomed to be subversive. In other words, the Trump administration has intensified social cracks in the past year, and this trend will not change in the next three years.

The "de-multilateralization" of diplomacy and the healthy development of Sino-US relations.

As far as international affairs are concerned, the Trump administration has been committed to promoting the rebalancing of American economic interests and security strategy since it took office, that is, "exchanging strength for economic interests" rather than "exchanging strength for international leadership". On the fourth day of his inauguration, Trump announced as promised that he would not push forward the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP), which is widely regarded as the best portrayal of the trend of "de-Obama" and "de-multilateralization" of his foreign policy. In fact, like his predecessor, Trump is fully aware of the urgent need to adjust the international role of the United States, but he stubbornly chose to retreat-this must not be an option for a big country.

In the geopolitical sense, Trump settled in the Middle East on his first visit in late May of 20 17, highlighting the strong callback, and implementing the * * * rare and traditional tendencies within the party and Trump's core team preferences. However, it is undeniable that this strong callback did not reproduce the internal balance in the Middle East that the United States expected in the past, and did not even create enough space for the "return" of the United States. Even if there are different levels of unconventional decisions on the Iranian nuclear agreement and the "Jerusalem issue", it is difficult to judge the effect of actively setting and leading the agenda at present.

After completely declaring that Obama's "Asia-Pacific strategy" is a thing of the past, the Trump administration revisited the so-called "Indo-Pacific" concept on the occasion of its first visit to Asia-Pacific in June 5438+065438+ 10. Such hasty action highlights that the Trump administration has to continue its Asia-Pacific strategy, but it must be different from Obama's embarrassment. This also reveals the great difficulty for the Trump administration to seek a fulcrum between the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific region.

In terms of allies, the Trump administration competes with allies, forcing them to bear more burdens, but on the other hand, it also accepts the "cornerstone positioning" of allies. This duality is reflected in the expression that "American priority does not mean that the United States goes it alone". However, from NATO to Japan and South Korea, even if allies still can't get rid of the United States in their security demands, they gradually show centrifugal force in their real needs such as economy and development.

In the relationship between major powers, Trump's initial attempt to promote the transformation of US-Russia relations was dragged down by American domestic politics. In contrast, under the strategic guidance of the two heads of state, Sino-US relations have steadily moved from a good start to a benign development, which is hard to come by. However, it must be noted that China and Russia are listed as "strategic competitors" in the "International Security Strategy" report released by the Trump administration at the fastest speed in history. This expression, full of cold war zero-sum thinking, has obviously risen in the United States and has a great market, which largely shows that there is still great uncertainty in the Trump administration's foreign strategy and diplomatic decision-making.

"Governing the country by Twitter" rewrites the general rules of American presidential politics.

While there are gains and losses on internal and external issues, Trump himself and his government continue to cause controversy in American politics. The lowest level poll in history, which has been going hand in hand since the first day in office, has become the most powerful basis for Trump's bad comments. On the occasion of the first anniversary of the ruling, the "infighting in the small circle" that had gradually subsided was once again destroyed by a popular bestseller (Fire and Fury: Inside the Trump White House); The absence of many important positions in the federal government has also obviously limited the professional decision-making of the Trump administration.

Although the tax reduction legislation was finally passed, it does not mean that Trump has completely reconciled with Congress and the party-building forces, or even that Trump has enough policy professionalism. The so-called "TongRumen" investigation, which began to ferment after being elected, often adds new plots and becomes the key for the establishment to continue to shape Trump's policy and decision-making style toward Russia. In the face of these criticisms, Trump's best weapon is Twitter, which always sounds within reach. This negative "endless campaign" broke through the criticism of the elite and traditional public opinion, firmly absorbed the support of the basic party and key voters, and then rewritten the general rules of American presidential politics.

Trump has clearly told the world in his first year in power that Trump does not represent most Americans; Trump is a product of polarized politics and is strengthening the fact of polarization; Trump's United States is undergoing unilateral adjustment regardless of the general trend of the world. Lonely adjustment may make the United States "stronger", but it is difficult to be "great". Ironically, polls show that even if the election is postponed to more than a year later, Trump will still be in the White House, not Hillary. It can be seen that this script about America may have been written long ago.