Why is Cameron responsible for Britain's withdrawal from the EU?

Regardless of the result of the referendum on June 23rd, the 49-year-old British Prime Minister David Cameron will face the most violent and possibly fatal crisis in his once invincible political career.

From Britain's sudden lead in the support rate of leaving the EU to the shock of the pound and the financial market, from the intensified division within the Conservative Party to the death of Labour MPs in the street, from the Queen being told to support Britain's exit from the EU to Obama and Merkel's support for staying in Europe ... The referendum on Britain's exit from the EU seemed to be an episode six months ago, but today it has set off a storm in the British Isles and even Europe as a whole. As the initiator of this referendum, Cameron was also pushed to the center of the whirlpool by the storm he provoked.

To save the Conservative Party from the political downturn, Cameron, who was in full swing, did not expect that the desperate British withdrawal from the EU referendum could no longer make up for the divided Conservative Party; I didn't expect the momentum of Britain's exit from the EU to get such support in Britain. Regardless of the outcome of the referendum, this may be a "hurdle" that Cameron can no longer step over.

At that time, he was the savior of the Conservative Party.

Like most British politicians, Cameron, who comes from a financial family and has William IV royal blood, came out of the cradle of two politicians, Eton and Oxford. At Oxford University, Cameron studied for a degree in philosophy, politics and economics, which was called "PPE class". Although he seldom participates in political activities, he actively participates in community activities, including the Brinden Club, which is famous for its binge drinking and bohemian behavior. The "Pig Gate" scandal that broke out a while ago is the story of this club, and Boris Johnson, the former mayor of London and also a Conservative Party, is both his college classmate and the club's small partner (Johnson is Cameron's number one opponent in today's referendum).

△ Two good friends of Eaton and Oxford: Johnson and Cameron.

That year, Cameron's political journey was smooth. Although he failed to run for parliament twice, he was successfully elected as a member of the House of Commons on 200 1. More importantly, Cameron caught up with the opportunity of Conservative Party reform.

After several consecutive general elections failed to enter Downing Street, the Conservative Party not only suffered the longest opposition time, but also changed three party leaders in six years, and its political foundation was weakened. In order to rise again, the Conservative Party tried to change the image of a "nasty party" that had been ingrained since Thatcher. In this context, Cameron was successfully elected as the party leader in 2005 with his youth, baby face and standard political resume.

△ In 2005, "Baby Face" Cameron was elected as the leader of the Conservative Party.

The financial crisis in 2008 dealt a heavy blow to the Labour government, which has been in power continuously since Tony Blair. Cameron took the opportunity to lead the Conservative Party, defeated the Labour Party in the general election of 20 10, and formed a coalition government with the Liberal Democratic Party as prime minister. In 20 15, Cameron won the general election with an absolute majority, and was re-elected as prime minister with the help of the continued downturn of the Labour Party and the complete dishonesty of the Liberal Democrats.

All this seems to indicate Cameron's bright future. Yes, in nine months, he will become the longest-serving prime minister after Thatcher and Blair; As long as he can complete this term, by 2020, he will keep pace with these two people and become one of the longest-lived prime ministers in Downing Street 10. Now, however, all this needs to be accompanied by a premise: if Cameron can survive this referendum.

The so-called referendum is actually political speculation under heavy pressure.

Ironically, it was none other than Cameron himself who caused the storm.

In June of 20 13, 5438+0, he made a public speech and proposed a referendum on Britain's withdrawal from the EU in the future. 20 14 September, Cameron promised that if the Conservative Party won the next general election, a referendum would be held before the end of 20 17. 20 15 On May 7th, the Conservative Party won the general election successfully, and the referendum bill was passed in the House of Commons on June 9th. 20 16 On February 20th, Cameron announced that a referendum would be held on June 23rd.

Behind Cameron's promise, there is some helplessness of being "forced to Liangshan". In the late 1980s, Margaret Thatcher severely questioned the accelerating process of EU integration and refused to join the euro, which laid the foundation for the EU skepticism within the Conservative Party. For more than 20 years, this idea has gradually moved from the edge to the mainstream in the Conservative Party, and has many supporters among Conservative voters and Conservative MPs. The European debt crisis, the outbreak of the refugee crisis, the depression of the British economy, and especially the rise of the ultra-right British Independence Party (UKIP), which is anti-EU and anti-immigration, have intensified the controversy over the EU within the Conservative Party.

△ Nigel Farage Nigel Farage, leader of the Independent Party who stirred up British politics.

On 20 1 1 year, the National Assembly voted on the proposal of holding a referendum on Britain's withdrawal from the European Union signed by 1 more than ten thousand people. Although Cameron asked all the Conservatives to vote against it, 8 1 party member voted for it. It is under this pressure of public opinion that Cameron began to change his previous tough attitude and turned to compromise.

Behind this promise, there is an opportunity to gamble. Under pressure, Cameron thought hard and finally thought of a wonderful adventure-referendum. His plan is as follows: first, by promising a referendum, he can unite the two factions within the party; Then, with the referendum as a bargaining chip, he can put pressure on the EU and get a compromise; Finally, he can rely on the compromise of the EU to win the satisfaction of Britain's withdrawal from the EU and further win the support of the centrists to stay in Europe.

In the end, he can not only get away with it, but also prove that staying in Europe and enhancing Britain's special status can be described as killing three birds with one stone. What's more, at that time, the referendum should still have a chance of winning. Of course, there is another key step in the plan, that is, holding a referendum as soon as possible to prevent the European debt crisis and the refugee crisis from further affecting public opinion. Anxious to hold a referendum at the end of June is precisely to avoid the summer when the refugee tide is the worst; But Cameron did not calculate that there would be a terrorist attack in Brussels. What he could not escape was the refugee crisis, not the threat of terrorism.

From winning the general election in May last year to February this year, Cameron devoted himself to the negotiations with the European Union, mediating everywhere without stopping. From Bulgaria to Slovakia, he has visited more European capitals than any modern British prime minister in half a year.

/kloc-On the night of February, 2009, for two whole days, almost without sleep, Cameron finally announced an agreement with the European Union. In his report to the cabinet the next day, he said that the agreement would well consolidate Britain's "special status" in the EU, and announced that a referendum would be held on June 23rd, and he would "wholeheartedly" support Britain to stay in the EU.

The Conservative Party is becoming more and more divided.

However, according to Cameron's plan, nothing happened.

To Eurosceptics, the so-called best agreement is so feeble. In fact, even during the negotiations, some supporters of Britain's withdrawal from the EU said that any possible agreement was "a plate of porridge mixed with water" because Cameron's demands were so inadequate. In the view of Britain's exit from the EU, the most critical issue is immigration; For the EU, this is a red line that must not be touched.

Shortly after Cameron announced the referendum, his university friend and long-time colleague of the Conservative Party, Johnson, defected at the last minute and announced that he would join Britain and withdraw from the EU camp. Michael Gove, the Minister of Justice, and iain duncan smith, the pension minister who resigned because of dissatisfaction with the budget cuts for the disabled, formed the Conservative Party to support Britain's withdrawal from the EU front, which became the official camp of Britain's withdrawal from the EU.

△ Johnson and Cameron's tit-for-tat position on the issue of Britain's withdrawal from the European Union completely subverted their boat of friendship.

In other words, it is no longer the ridiculous British Independence Party and populist leader farage who stands on the opposite side of Cameron, but his own "teammates", with 13 1 member of parliament (40%) behind them. In the eyes of Eurosceptic members and voters of the Conservative Party, Johnson and others advocate not only Britain's withdrawal from the EU itself, but a new possibility. They also show another political possibility, such as the "shadow cabinet".

For some neutral people, Britain's withdrawal from the EU on the other side can blame the EU and immigrants for the bad status quo and draw cakes for the future. Cameron's "negative" remarks in this regard are not so beautiful-the statement that "the status quo is not good, but Britain's withdrawal from the EU will be even worse" is frustrating.

No matter how many economists, scholars and politicians bombard the media, it has no appeal to the people. After all, in the eyes of many people, these people are wearing a pair of pants, and what they say is not very credible. Otherwise, how can the economy not improve after eight years?

In the eyes of supporters staying in Europe, the whole referendum is simply a farce. Cameron gambled on the future of the whole country for the political interests of himself (among conservative supporters) and his own party (among non-conservative supporters), but instead gave the supporters of Britain's withdrawal from the European Union a bigger voice platform. Some people even questioned that Cameron spent millions of dollars to organize a referendum when public finances were so tight.

It must be hard for Cameron to see this gesture of unintentionally losing the game. I wanted to make peace with the party, but it aggravated the differences within the party; I wanted to get a compromise from the EU, but I got a discount. Originally, I expected that my publicity would improve the support rate of staying in Europe, but the more publicity, the worse.

△ On the cover of The Economist, Cameron is smoking a cigar, holding a poker and holding chips in front of him-Britain's withdrawal from the EU referendum means a big gamble for him.

Will the referendum become Cameron's hottest "political legacy"?

For Cameron, who is at the center of the whirlpool, the nightmare seems to be still behind. After the storm, it will not be a rainbow, but an irreparable ruin.

The rift within the Conservative Party is getting bigger and bigger under the baptism of the storm of Britain leaving the EU. Boris, Goff and others seem ready to accept or set up another door. The huge contradiction between the two parties in the party can be seen from the words of a Conservative MP who supports Britain's withdrawal from the EU to the Sunday Times: "I don't want to stab Cameron from behind, because I want to stab Cameron from the front, so I can see the expression on his face when he is stabbed ... but you need to twist the knife because we still want to pull it out and stab Osborne." It seems that even if Cameron has all kinds of abilities, it is difficult to fill this widening crack in the party.

If the British withdrawal from the EU party wins, then the British withdrawal from the EU party in the Conservative Party will never be willing to let Cameron, who supports staying in Europe, negotiate with the EU, and it is difficult for Europeans inside and outside the party to forgive Cameron for initiating a referendum; If you win in Europe, you will definitely have no advantage. Britain will never give up when it leaves the EU. It is estimated that about 65,438+000 MPs will vote of no confidence in Cameron.

Whether to return or stay, the bright road in front of Cameron has disappeared, replaced by a strange mountain road, and every step forward may fall off the cliff. And the mountain under his feet is shaking, and the Conservative Party is likely to split after the storm.

△ Britain goes to the EU, going or staying?

Behind Cameron is a divided country. After leaving the European Union, the British economy will face the great turmoil of the pound plunging and stock market volatility, which is likely to trigger another world economic crisis. Cameron can definitely go down in history with this "achievement" name. After staying in Europe, Britain's dissatisfaction with leaving the EU will further accumulate and even erupt. The tragedy that Labour MPs who supported staying in Europe before the referendum were stabbed to death in the street by supporters of Britain's withdrawal from the EU is an omen.

Long before the referendum, Cameron had split Britain into a country of rich and poor through continuous austerity policies and the biggest decline in living standards since the Victorian era, thus continuing Thatcher's career. The political and economic turmoil after the referendum will further shake the foundation of stability.

Behind Cameron is a precarious European Union. The European Union, which is still struggling in the debt crisis and refugee crisis, was kicked to pieces by the British referendum. It is estimated that there is no worse example than Cameron launching a referendum in a country that already enjoys preferential status to get a bargain. From Austria to Poland, from France to Slovakia, the rise of extreme right forces also indicates that the next referendum is just around the corner.

I wonder if Cameron will regret this. If only he hadn't made a compromise and promised a referendum. Think carefully, even if there is no referendum, who can say that there will be no other storms waiting for him?