Background of Russian national energy and resources strategy formulation

Under the background of the world resource situation, the United States, Europe, Japan and other countries and regions began to adjust their energy and resource policies to ensure their own energy security and enhance their political and economic status in the international community. In the eyes of Russian leaders, energy production can strengthen the dialogue between Russia and the West, and can also be used as a trump card for Russian diplomacy with the United States. Russian leaders also hope to support their socio-economic transformation by adjusting their relations with the West, thus revitalizing the energy industry. Energy has become an important condition for Russia to participate in international cooperation, and international energy cooperation has enabled Russia to get rid of the crisis and embark on the road of revitalization. Energy industry is the foundation of Russian national economy and plays an important role in national political and economic life.

At present, the strategic pattern of international energy resources is undergoing profound changes, and Russia's energy policy is also undergoing important adjustments. Sino-Russian energy cooperation has entered a new stage. Facing the new situation, China should correctly look at the practical difficulties and long-term prospects of Sino-Russian energy cooperation, adjust its thinking in time, and formulate an overall strategy for energy cooperation with Russia, especially considering the balance between the international energy price trend and the domestic energy price policy reform. Determine the fundamental principles in energy cooperation price negotiations with Russia, coordinate the interests of China and Russia in energy development and transportation in Central Asia, and strive to achieve mutual benefit and win-win with Russia and Central Asian countries.

Judging from the geopolitical pattern after the Cold War, Russia's international security environment is not optimistic. In Eurasia, to the west, NATO, led by the United States, is expanding eastward and squeezing Russia's strategic space; To the east, the US-Japan alliance has been continuously strengthened-from purely defensive nature to a certain degree of westward attack; To the south, the United States, Japan and Europe based in the Middle East are gradually advancing to Central Asia, pointing directly at the "heart" of Russia. Faced with such strong pressure, Russia can only strengthen its position in international political and economic life by adjusting its energy strategy and carrying out energy diplomacy. In the eyes of Russian leaders, Russia's position in the world energy market largely determines its geopolitical influence. Oil and gas is not only an export commodity, but also an important means to promote foreign policy.

First of all, from a political point of view, after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Russia became a second-rate country in terms of social chaos and economic recession, both in terms of political influence and economic strength. Therefore, revitalizing Russia's greatness has become a top priority for the government. The Russian government has formulated a foreign policy of giving priority to developing relations with CIS countries and stabilizing Europe, and on this basis, it has implemented a double-headed eagle foreign policy focusing on the West and giving consideration to the East. Oil and natural gas are important sources of funds for Putin to show his strategy of enriching Russia, and oil diplomacy is Putin's trump card to build Qiang Bing's diplomatic space in the new era. On the map of Russian oil diplomacy, Europe is the traditional export market of Russian energy, and the EU imports 16% of oil and 4 1% of natural gas from Russia. Russia's main goal in the near future is to exchange oil cooperation for EU investment in its domestic infrastructure and industrial production, and to close Russia-Europe relations. This is reflected in Russia's energy strategy to 2020, and Russia regards the EU as a priority oil and gas partner. Putin also made it clear in 2004 that the establishment of a unified economic space between Russia and Europe is "Russia's main task in Europe", and the current focus is to accelerate all-round cooperation with the EU and realize the "Greater Europe" plan with the EU as soon as possible. Therefore, the oil and gas cooperation between Russia and Europe takes precedence over the cooperation between China and Russia. In addition, Russia has always distrusted China, fearing that a powerful China would pose a major threat to its security. This kind of worry has a good market in Russian decision-making. Ilan Berman, vice chairman of the Council on Foreign Relations of the United States, believes that Putin has realized that the increasingly powerful China will eventually become a strategic competitor of Russia, and the issue of building a crude oil pipeline to China needs careful consideration. Local governments in Siberia and the Far East put pressure on the Russian government on the issue of oil pipelines, which is also a factor that cannot be ignored in the obstruction of Sino-Russian oil and gas cooperation. For example, on May 13, 2003, Pulikovski, the plenipotentiary of the Russian President in the Far East, convened a joint meeting of the governors of the Federal District and wrote a "joint letter from the governors of the Far East States" to Putin, demanding the laying of the "Anna Line". In addition, Russian media often report China's population pressure on Russia and China's possible expansion to Russia in the future, which makes Russian public opinion wary of China.

In recent years, Russia's national strength has gradually recovered, and the strategy of implementing "energy diplomacy" and realizing national rejuvenation has become increasingly clear. Under the background of obvious improvement of political relations, Russia actively expanded its cooperation with the United States in the oil market, enriching the economic connotation for the "new strategic partnership". At the same time, Russia is also trying to expand its traditional energy cooperation with Europe. It is undeniable that the increase of oil production and export will expand Russia's political room for manoeuvre. The role of energy in ensuring Russia's participation in international cooperation is very obvious. In addition to abundant natural resources, Russia also has relatively developed basic science and cutting-edge technical resources, and still maintains rich human resources and educational potential. If the oil crisis is caused by political turmoil, Russia is likely to quell the crisis by increasing exports. This will not only help to expand oil exports, but also have a far-reaching impact on the relationship between Russia and the West.

Secondly, from the economic point of view, oil and gas export is the pillar of Russian economic recovery and growth at this stage. In recent years, thanks to the high world oil price, Russia's economy has recovered rapidly and has grown steadily for five consecutive years. However, the economic development between the eastern and western parts of Russia is very uneven. Although the eastern part of Russia is rich in resources, its economic development obviously lags behind that of the western part. Actively promoting Siberia and the Far East to join the process of economic integration in the Asia-Pacific region and promoting their economic development through bilateral and multilateral cooperation with countries in the Asia-Pacific region is part of Russia's 2 1 century economic development strategy. Therefore, based on economic considerations, Sino-Russian oil and gas cooperation should not only effectively promote the economic development of East Siberia and the Far East, but also conform to Russia's long-term energy strategy. Russian authorities believe that China's rapid economic development and huge demand for energy can really guarantee Russia's energy strategy of developing the Asia-Pacific market. However, China's technology and management level are low, and Sino-Russian oil and gas cooperation can greatly meet China's demand for energy, but its driving capacity for economic development in the Russian Far East and Siberia is quite limited. In this regard, the Russian media also reported. Russia's Independent published an article entitled "Does Russia need to be a vassal of China's raw materials in order to avoid China's expansion?" China is absorbing a lot of resources to maintain economic growth, and Russian rich resources may become the first choice for China's external expansion. No matter whether the expansion is through political, financial, economic or immigration means, Russia will become an energy vassal of China.

Russia's foreign trade exports, mainly oil and natural gas exports, have been deeply affected by the financial crisis in Southeast Asia. Since the financial crisis broke out in Southeast Asia in August 1997, markets all over the world have been impacted to varying degrees, and Russia has not been spared. The Southeast Asian financial crisis has reduced the demand for oil and natural gas in some Asian countries, which has greatly reduced the international oil and natural gas prices. This is a heavy blow to Russia, which is a pillar industry in the energy field. Its exports account for two-thirds of Russian exports and are Russia's main source of foreign exchange. With the recovery of the whole economy and the favorable factors such as high world oil prices, the Russian oil industry has developed rapidly in recent years. The rapid development of energy relations between Russia and the United States after the "9. 1 1" incident, the energy factors behind the Iraq war and the dispute over oil pipelines all show the important influence of energy factors on international political and economic relations in the new century. Under this international background, only by actively adjusting its energy strategy to adapt to the international environment can Russia gain the greatest political and economic benefits.

After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, great changes have taken place in Russia's economic and political situation. Since the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Russia's gross domestic product has basically declined year by year. In the 1990s, Russian industrial and agricultural production declined by more than 50%, production investment decreased year by year, and foreign debt and domestic debt intertwined, which led to a long-term recession of Russian economy. In the 1990s, Russia's investment in economic sectors decreased by 80%, of which investment in fixed assets decreased by 70%, and the material foundation of Russian economy was being destroyed. Russian President Vladimir Putin also has a clear understanding of this. In his article "Russia at the Turn of the Millennium", he pointed out that "Russia is currently facing very complicated economic and social problems. Throughout the 1990s, Russia's GDP dropped by almost 50%, and the total amount was only equivalent to110 in the United States and 1/5 in China. "

For a long time, the European part of Russia has been the main exporter of energy in eastern Russia. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the economy in the eastern region fell into crisis. Due to the decline in the exploitation of various raw materials, the increase in freight rates and the decrease in the output of resources in the eastern region, the development of some European economies has been seriously restricted. With the economic recovery, some resources in Europe are increasingly exhausted, and its economic development is more dependent on the development of resources in the eastern region. Therefore, it is more urgent for Russia to develop natural resources in the eastern region at this stage. At present, Russia is in a complicated political and economic environment. For the sake of economy and national security, it is wise to vigorously develop energy resources in the eastern region, and it is also a shortcut to get rid of economic difficulties.

Energy is Russia's superior resource. Russia has 0/3% of the world's oil resources and 45% of natural gas resources. However, like other economic sectors, the Russian oil industry has also experienced a painful process from recession to climb. During the period from 199 1 to 10 in 2000, the oil production decreased from 460 million tons to 323 million tons, the production capacity decreased by 282 million tons, and the drilling scale decreased by 2/3. Only in recent years has the Russian oil industry regained its vitality. Oil and gas industry is the leading sector of Russian economy, and it is also an important basis for foreign exchange earning through export. Russian oil and gas industry accounts for about 12% of industrial output value, 40% of Russian Federation's income and 60% of Russian total exports.

Russia's national financial and economic situation is extremely vulnerable to oil price fluctuations. Every time the world oil price changes by 1 USD, the Russian national budget will change by about 1 USD. For Russia, oil is a barometer of economic and financial income. The rise in world energy prices has stimulated Russia's energy production and export, which has become an important prerequisite for Russia's economic recovery and national strength enhancement. Since the economic transition, the development of Russian oil and gas industry is closely related to the adjustment of industrial structure and economic demand under the economic crisis. Russia's industrial structure adjustment should not only consider the long-term interests of economic development, but also obey the anti-crisis task in economic transformation. Russia's foreign debt burden is heavy, it is at the peak of debt repayment, and the economic situation is unbearable, not to mention the major adjustment of the country's economic structure. Judging from the economic situation of Russia in recent years, increasing energy production, expanding energy exports, increasing foreign exchange reserves and improving the ability to repay loans have become one of the main ways out for its economic recovery.

Russia's oil and gas industry is relatively developed and the most competitive sector. Under the situation that Russia's domestic demand is insufficient and it needs to rely on exports to stabilize the economy or even get rid of the crisis, the Russian government takes the fuel and energy industry represented by oil and gas as the leader of structural transformation, and by improving the equipment creation level of this department, on the one hand, it reduces production costs and improves the technical content of products; On the other hand, it will drive the whole and its manufacturing industry as a pillar industry to obtain the demand for fundamental innovation and development.

Shortly after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Russia began to formulate medium and long-term energy development plans and strategies, which were revised three times in 1995, 2000 and 2003 respectively. Since the end of 2003, especially after 2004, the Russian government has made major adjustments to its energy, oil and gas regulations and policies, as well as the development ideas of the oil and gas industry. In 2000, Russia compiled the Basic Principles of Russia's Energy Strategy in 2020, and in 200 1 year, under the auspices of former Minister Kalizhny, Russia compiled the Basic Principles of the Development Conception of Russian Oil and Gas Complex. In order to ensure the government's control over oil and gas resources, Russia nationalized energy enterprises through various channels and restricted foreign investment in energy enterprises. For example, in early July 2006, the Russian State Duma (the lower house of parliament) passed the Law on Natural Gas Export of the Russian Federation, stipulating that all Russian natural gas export business will be undertaken by state-owned companies. This law actually established Gazprom's monopoly on its own natural gas export.

According to the international energy development strategy launched by Russia in the new century, Russia will still use energy as a lever to strengthen its position in the world, use energy factors to develop cooperative relations with energy and economic organizations around the world, exert influence on energy and economy, and enhance its weight in the Middle East, Europe, especially the Asia-Pacific region. In the future, the main export strategy of Russia's fuel and energy sector will tend to enter the Asia-Pacific market, that is, to develop new oil and gas in East Siberia and the Far East, broaden export channels and ensure the export safety of oil and gas products.

According to Russia's energy strategy, the medium-term development strategic objectives before 2020 are: to ensure the expansion of reproduction, meet domestic demand, rationally exploit proven resources, strengthen the construction of transportation infrastructure, increase exports and expand its presence in the international market. To this end, the focus of Russian national policy will shift to the following directions: improving the investment environment; Building oil pipelines in new oil-producing areas; Support the development of small and medium-sized oil companies; Actively participate in the world oil market; Participate in oil projects in other countries.