A n experienced person talks about investing in real estate, will house prices plummet?

The protagonist of this paper is a new first-tier city with a population of over 6.5438+million, and its population density ranks among the top 6 in China. In his view, the current property market is too complicated, and it remains to be seen whether house prices will plummet.

Since 20 1 1, A Jun has maintained the efficiency of buying a house and allocating assets every year. Basically, subway (within 1.2 km)+core business+school district is the core logic of distribution. He bought four suites in the last four years and handled two houses in the same period, and he can see a slight increase of 5% every year, in other words, in 2000. A villa community in Li Ka-shing recently bought a promotion through an intermediary. Some high-quality real estate sales have not been liquidated for 4 years.

1, stock investment will be more difficult to make money.

Personally, I don't expect that there will be a mainstream investment market at present and in the next three years, and I am prepared to speculate on 20% positions. All cash is safe: USD (you know the exchange strategy)+cash wait and see.

2, sell the extra house, or eat noodles forever!

It is estimated that it happened at 20 15 and 10 at the earliest, with a minimum of 6 months and a maximum of 3 years, and the property market may fall into a liquidity trap. Financial risks and real depression-leading to rising unemployment rate and L-shaped economy-vicious circle of property market. Borrow a joke: The biggest risk point of China's economy is that the risk is quietly shifting from the subject with the ability to take risks to the subject without the ability to recognize risks.

Classification of redundant houses:

1, a house that does not live;

2. luxury house;

3. A house with a loan.

Can also be popularly understood as:

1, except for those planned to live;

2. In addition to being able to buy in full, it is best not to go to mortgage to buy a house at present.

In 20 15, China encountered unprecedented troubles. In the world financial history, there has never been a trillion-dollar government bailout, and the stock market is still fleeing collectively. After the financial crisis in the United States, Japan and Asia, house prices in the United States and Hong Kong fell by 50% and in Japan by 80%. In other developed countries suffering from the financial crisis and the disappearance of demographic dividend, house prices have been falling.

Worst case: always eat noodles! Unless you are engaged in a career: medical care, aviation, five-star tourist attractions, public office, emerging high-tech industries, etc. If you reach out to buy a house in a state-owned enterprise or a traditional industry, you may eat noodles forever.

3. How complicated is the situation? The old rich are cautious, but the new rich come late!

A few years ago, due to the government's regulation of real estate, or the uncertainty of international reasons, the property market always went up after adjustment. Except for ghost towns that have fallen, most house prices have not fallen, but sales may be extremely slow.

Many people may not understand this paragraph: at present, the owner of each house with a market price of 20 million yuan has at least one redundant house in the area, there are a large number of house bulls (speculators) in China, and a large number of old rich people in China come from the real estate chain. In the event of a real estate crisis/liquidity trap, the mid-to high-end luxury residential market (similar to a miracle) will suddenly die. Just ask a few friends, the newly-built luxury villa community in the past three years is vacant on a large scale, and the occupancy rate is extremely low. Except for the core area of the core city, most of the second-hand luxury houses are sold out! There are countless houses sold at a loss in the non-luxury market, and intermediaries will not sell houses with less losses at all. The so-called sellers lack the core logic to attract buyers.

The housing market is also divided into two factions: blue chip and creative game: the housing bulls (high net worth people) are not worried about property tax and housing registration at all, and the logic of luxury bulls is simple. Hold the house until a new generation of rich people rise and sell it to him! This is the logic of national luck. The country prospers in luxury houses, and luxury houses flourish in the property market. Policy tools such as property tax are only a matter of cost of ownership, and more rich people will always take over.

At present, it seems that the old rich tend to be cautious, and the new rich come late!

Why the old rich are so cautious:

The elderly and the rich often travel around the world, and their children, relatives and friends spend a lot of money shopping overseas. The information and anxiety they got in the past three weeks are how the yen depreciated by 40% and where is the RMB going? Hurry to avoid danger. Since 10, his investment logic and allocation strategy have been reversed. Not only will he not buy a house, but he will even become a fence sitter. For some established immigrants and overseas allocation elites, he will speed up the sale of assets and enter the established overseas investment model.

So everyone can only guess that at this moment, check the logic of underground banks and capital flowing into Hong Kong. Then see if it speeds up.

Where is the new rich man? Maybe, but not as many as the fence sitters.

The property market is too complicated at present. Please watch your step.

(The above answers were published on 2015-09-11. Please refer to the actual situation for the current relevant procurement policies. )

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