What is the possibility of re-industrialization in the United States?

To tell the truth, there is no problem if you want to revive the American manufacturing industry and make the United States a manufacturing power again from a purely technical point of view. The manufacturing industry in the United States was once unique in the world. During World War II, the United States provided half of the arms for the anti-fascist camp. Think about how terrible this manufacturing capability is. For example, in 1943, a country in the United States built 52 aircraft carriers, almost once a week. Therefore, from a purely technical point of view, it is no problem for the United States to become a manufacturing power again.

But from the perspective of American hegemony, the problem is "big".

One of the important reasons why the United States can become a world superpower is that its currency is a common currency, and global trade, especially energy trade, is priced and settled in US dollars. When the dollar is printed, it needs to be spent all over the world to maintain the hegemonic position of the dollar and the hegemonic position of the United States.

What will happen if the United States becomes a manufacturing power again?

Labor costs in the United States are too high. Of course, high labor costs can also build a manufacturing power, so pay more! Increasing wages will increase enterprise costs, reduce enterprise profits and raise product prices. Do you still have a competitive advantage after the price increase of products?

Of course, if the products you produce are high-end technology products that only a few countries in the world can produce, such as large aircraft, high-performance aero-engines, high-end chips and so on. Then as long as your quality is good and your price is high, someone will buy it. For example, there are only two companies in the world, Boeing and Airbus. You can only choose one. Instead of buying Boeing, you can only buy Airbus.

But in the low-end field, consumers have more choices. For example, in addition to Apple and Blackberry, there are Huawei, Samsung, Xiaomi, OPPO, VIVO and so on. Consumers don't have to buy your apple, do they?

In addition, even if you want to buy an apple, the price of the same apple is still very different between China and the United States. The same IPhone 1 1, made in China, 6000 RMB. Can it be made in America? I can't! Look at Foxconn, which produces apples. Workers in China earn four or five thousand dollars a month, but in the United States, can you give four or five thousand dollars to American workers? That's a monthly salary of four or five thousand yuan! If the IPhone 1 1 made in US dollars sells for 6,000 RMB, I'm afraid you can't earn enough money to pay American workers, let alone pay taxes, pay various utilities and buy insurance, social security and medical insurance for American workers. So, you have to sell an American IPhone 1 1 for at least $6,000. This is the problem. The same IPhone 1 1 costs 6,000 RMB made in China and 6,000 USD made in the United States. Whose did you buy? This logic can also be applied to refrigerators, washing machines, air conditioners, televisions, microwave ovens, clothing and other products. Of course, your high price doesn't matter. My government can give people more money and then order all foreign products to be kept out of the United States, so that people can only buy "Made in America".

But in this case, what about your dollar hegemony? Over the years, the United States has been responsible for printing dollars, and then using it to buy goods from all over the world, so that the world can help the dollar spend money together, so that the dollar can maintain its dominance. If foreign goods are not allowed to enter the United States, the dollar will not go out. If the dollar can't go out, it will lose its position as the international currency hegemon. The hegemony of the dollar is gone, and so is the hegemony of the United States. If you let foreign products in, your products will have no competitive advantage. As a result of re-industrialization in the United States, many things were produced and no one bought them.

Who can think of a way to make American fish and bear's paw have it both ways? On the one hand, it sells a lot of American products, on the other hand, it scatters a lot of dollars. There is no contradiction between them. No one can find a way to kill two birds with one stone and let the United States have the best of both worlds. The United States can either give up its hegemonic position or become a manufacturing power again, and the two can only choose one.

The United States is the most developed capitalist country in the world, with a gdp of 2 1 trillion dollars in 2020. But in this 2 1 10,000, the GDP of tertiary industry accounts for 8 1.5%, and the proportion of manufacturing industry is only 1 1% after deducting mining and agriculture.

The American lawyer industry contributes 6% of GDP, which means that the annual lawyer fee in the United States is $654.38 +0.2 trillion.

In today's world, $654.38+000 billion is a threshold. There are 195 sovereign countries in the world. If American lawyers form a country alone, their GDP can crush most countries.

According to the statistics of the World Bank, in 2020, there are only 16 countries with global GDP exceeding $0/0 billion, namely the United States, China, Japan, Germany, Britain, India, France, Italy, Canada, South Korea, Russia, Brazil, Australia, Spain, Mexico and Indonesia.

All service industries do not directly create material wealth.

Because the US dollar is the main settlement currency in the world, if the United States insists on participating in the international cycle, it is not particularly important for the US economy whether the United States will re-industrialize, because it can exchange US dollars for cheap industrial products produced in China.

However, the Trump administration insisted on decoupling from China's economy and imposed high tariffs on China's products exported to the United States.

Reducing material trade with China means that the United States must create its own material wealth. So from this perspective, the re-industrialization of the United States determines whether the United States can win the trade war with China.

The re-industrialization of the United States is a plan that the last Trump administration was particularly keen to promote.

Although the Biden administration came to power, it stopped a series of policies during the Trump administration. However, in order to take care of domestic nationalism, Biden's government will still carry out the plan of re-industrialization in the United States.

However, it is physically impossible for the United States to truly realize re-industrialization.

Isolated systems can only maintain the state of increasing entropy, so heavy industrialization in the United States is actually a false proposition.

The correct proposition should be: Who can help the United States to re-industrialize?

In other words, he can't handle the re-industrialization of the United States alone. Therefore, the policy of the US government is to move large enterprises from all over the world to the United States as much as possible. But in fact, the current economic soil in the United States is no longer suitable for the survival of large enterprises.

The United States was once a great industrialized country, which was caused by a series of historical reasons. If we analyze this process clearly, we will understand why the United States itself can no longer industrialize.

At the beginning of last century, in order to solve the problem of mathematical proof, mathematician Hilbert put forward the axiomatic principle. The axiomatic principle in the most popular language refers to the minimum number of elements that a system must have to reach a clear conclusion and the relationship between these elements.

According to the axiomatic principle, a self-deductive system must have at least two elements, which must meet the requirements of independence and compatibility.

Applying to the proposition of national industrialization, these two elements: one is people and the other is environment.

Among them, man includes two independent and integrated elements, a great organizer and manager and a high-quality worker.

19 At the end of the 20th century, several of the world's greatest entrepreneurs appeared in the United States, namely Rockefeller, the oil magnate, Carnegie, the steel magnate, and JP Morgan, the investment banker.

Rockefeller founded Standard Oil Company, which was later split into more than 30 companies according to American anti-monopoly law, but these 30 companies eventually formed Mobil, Shell, BP and Chevron.

Carnegie, the king of steel, reformed the process of ironmaking and steelmaking, greatly reduced the cost of ironmaking and steelmaking, and directly reduced the price of steel from $0/00 per ton 12 per ton.

/kloc-at the end of 0/9, the American economy developed rapidly, and a large number of rural people poured into cities.

At that time, the urban architecture in the United States was similar to that in Europe, with brick and wood structure as the main structure, low building efficiency, few high-rise buildings, low land utilization rate and very crowded cities.

Carnegie steel has become the best building material because it can provide cheap steel in large quantities.

Steel can be prefabricated in the factory, as long as it is transported to the construction site and installed with rivets.

Steel structure buildings do not need scaffolding, which is the scaffolding itself. Besides, it doesn't need a huge construction site, and it won't produce noise or dust. At the same time, it doesn't need to wait for the concrete to solidify like a concrete building, and the time to build a steel structure only depends on the dexterity of workers' hands and feet.

So in just two years from 1900 to 1902, more than 100 tall buildings with steel structures were built in Manhattan, new york.

The famous Empire State Building took more than a year to build the world's tallest building with a height of more than 400 meters, just because it is a steel structure building.

Rockefeller and Carnegie are outstanding managers who stand out from the bottom workers, and only in a blank land at that time did they have a chance to be born.

According to the screening method, the larger the total number of samples, the better the screened individuals.

Therefore, entrepreneurs who stand out from the bottom workers are the best, because the poor and the bottom people are the biggest crowd.

At that time, the United States was a new country with weak traditional power, which attracted many very talented but penniless people. This is the advantage of immigrant countries.

Nikola tesla was born in a Croatian rural family. When he was in college, he was forced to drop out of school because he couldn't pay the tuition, so he went to work in Edison's company.

In essence, although Tesla is not a scientist, he is a great engineer who knows the essence of scientific theory and has deep intuition.

Tesla invented alternating current, which is very convenient to step up and step down, so it is easy to transmit over a long distance.

Thanks to the invention of Tesla, the United States realized electrification very early.

1930, there were 74 elevators in the Empire State Building in New York, USA.

After JPMorgan Chase acquired Edison Electric Company, he established General Electric Company, which became one of the four pillar companies in the United States. Morgan Consortium has created a brand-new capital accumulation model, that is, by acquiring and merging enterprises, investing in future scientific and technological projects to expand.

However, the investment-oriented expansion model has a premise that capital gains must be positive returns, while income and cost are closely related, and cost is closely related to market size.

China's power generation in 20 19 was 7.5 trillion kwh, while that in the United States was 4.4 trillion kwh. In terms of power generation, the market size of China is 1.7 times that of the United States.

Therefore, the re-industrialization of the United States is facing the problems of screening excellent managers and market scale cost competition.

Of course, the United States still retains considerable industrial manufacturing capabilities, especially in the manufacture of high-tech products such as computers, aviation and aerospace.

The United States does have considerable advantages, largely because it has not experienced a large-scale war for a long time. The Pacific Ocean and the Atlantic Ocean are moats in the United States. The United States has developed steadily for 200 years and its system is relatively reasonable.

However, no matter how complete the system is, it can't stop the tempering of the elderly. Moreover, the more complete the system, the stronger the inertia and the greater the rigidity.

The American destroyer Allie Burke was developed in the 1970s. By 2020, the destroyer Arleigh Burke has developed to the third generation, but the design team is still the same as in the 1970s, and the designers are all elderly people in their 70s and 80s.

Today's America is not as vibrant as it was 100 years ago.

The possibility that the United States can control China through re-industrialization is only 1. But it's impossible.

There is no such possibility. No country in the world has hollowed out its own industry and re-industrialized. If there is no such case, even if the United States wants to do so, I don't think it will do much. He has been encouraging the return of domestic and overseas production lines, but with little success.

The hollowing out of American industry is also quite serious. The added value of China's manufacturing industry accounts for only about 10% of GDP, while that of Germany and Japan, which insist on establishing a manufacturing market, is above 20%. In the process of industrialization, the proportion of China has reached 30%. It can be said that if the GDP of the United States remains unchanged and the proportion of manufacturing industry rises to 20%, the country's comprehensive national strength will be stronger.

Why is there no possibility of re-industrialization in the United States?

First, the scale of industrial workers in the United States has shrunk dramatically, and many previous industrial functions have also been transferred to the service industry. If the United States wants to forcibly promote industrialization, the first problem it faces is the lack of workers. Where can I find so many skilled and disciplined workers? After watching the American documentary "American Factory", I have a direct feeling that the industrial function, professional technical level and professional quality of the United States are not as good as those of China.

Second, the United States does not have a supporting industrial chain. The development of manufacturing industry has an indispensable premise, that is, a perfect supporting industrial chain. If there is no industrial chain, then everything needs to be imported, so the cost will be high and the products produced will not be competitive. What goods exported by China are so competitive abroad? The main reason is not the low labor price, but the perfect industrial chain, which makes the product price relatively low.

Third, Americans are reluctant to shift from low-labor service industries to manufacturing industries. Compared with the tiring manufacturing work, the service industry is very relaxed. At present, 75% of GDP in the United States is produced by the service industry, which absorbs more than 80% of the labor force in the United States. Moreover, the average wage in the service industry is not lower than that in the manufacturing industry. With the same income, who would want to switch from service industry to manufacturing industry?

Let's draw a conclusion first. The re-industrialization of the United States is almost impossible, because the reality of the United States and the world does not allow it to go back.

At the end of World War II, the United States led the world with its global industrialization capability. When was that? When all power is popularized, it is to introduce power applications in all fields. This stage is also called the second industrial revolution. At this time, the representative of advanced productive forces is the large-scale application of electricity to all aspects of production and life.

Now it's time to popularize silicon chips, that is, chip control applications have been introduced in various fields. This stage is also called the third industrial revolution. The representative of advanced productive forces is the application of large-scale chips to all aspects of production and life.

In the era of power popularization, the United States is a global leader. Now in the era of chip popularization, it is reasonable to be the world's boss with the scientific and technological capabilities of the United States. In this case, how can the United States go back to eat leftovers from the popularization of electricity? This is against the trend. As an elite country, the United States is unlikely to take this "anti-production" wrong route.

What the United States should do now is to lead in high technology, rather than compete with countries with advantages in labor. We should make a fuss about improving labor productivity. Therefore, former President Trump actually belongs to a loser who did not see clearly the development path of the United States. He wanted to run the country with a gun and tried to go against the trend, so he took office. I have to say that this error correction mechanism in the United States is really powerful, so that the United States will not run on the wrong route forever.

At this point, the future of the United States is to be an incubator of high technology all over the world, to study the lowest technology, and then to improve personal productivity by high profit margin, so as to maintain its dominance in the world. Therefore, the current president of the United States encourages high-tech immigrants, gathers the best brains in the world, gives the best conditions, and incubates the most advanced technology, which is the correct way for American rejuvenation. The perfect legal system and perfect protection of private property rights in the United States are making these high IQ talents flock to them. This is the antidote to the American renaissance, and that re-industrialization is actually poison!

Think about it, how expensive is the labor force in the United States? How does re-industrialization compete with other countries with low labor costs? Isn't this industrialization a leech that sucks blood in the American economy? In addition, all the production activities in the world now serve human beings, and the population that the earth can carry is limited, which means that the ceiling of industrial production has loomed. At this time, it is absolutely unwise for the United States to compete in this field where the ceiling can already be seen. Only by seizing the commanding heights of technology and profit can the United States be the boss forever.

Americans' wages are too high, and the products produced at their wages can't be sold to anyone.

To make matters worse, it's not just the high salary level. There are also workers' demands for labor benefits and other benefits, and the requirements for living standards will limit the re-industrialization of the United States.

To put it simply, for the American people at the bottom, if they are asked to do work with labor intensity far below the current average level, the work will either be boring or they will have to learn professional skills from scratch for a long time. They are willing to organize strikes or take to the streets to protest and March.

To say the least, for some people who are not enterprising, they can still live on high welfare, which is much better than being an assembly line worker.

What if the high welfare is cancelled? Then continue on the street.

Re-industrialization? It doesn't exist.

The United States wants to engage in "re-industrialization", which is a systematic project. In order to train technicians and engineers, it is necessary to set up an engineering school and a "Lan Xiang Technical School". Is there a teacher? Does anyone want to learn?

1. Cognition: Can the United States still be regarded as an industrial power today? First of all, it must be clear that the United States is of course an industrial power today. We often say that American industry is hollowed out, but it is actually inaccurate.

The United States still retains large-scale chemical industry, because it uses fewer people and has high profits. People are familiar with Dow Chemical DuPont Company and ExxonMobil Company. But he stopped producing a large number of ordinary products.

Of course, American industry is still very strong at present. For example, high-end industries, the United States has Boeing. By constantly raising the entry threshold, the original aircraft industry in many countries has been crushed, leaving only Boeing and Airbus. But if there is no support from the middle and low end, sometimes high-end industries will be embarrassed.

Phenomenon: In fact, the "re-industrialization" process in the United States has already begun, and the "re-industrialization" process in the United States has already begun. A friend of mine is now working as an engineer in the United States, and his company is building three fully automatic foundries in the United States.

Land in America is cheap (basically the same as free money) and energy is cheap (electricity is cheap, water is cheap, natural gas is cheap, not to mention oil). Then if it is a fully automatic production line, it will naturally come back to the United States. My friend's company has really started to slowly pull the production line back to the United States from China.

Religion has nothing to do with nationality. Everyone is working for a living, but the main purpose of American capitalists is to maximize profits, which will never change.

In the final analysis, the cost of fully automated factories in the United States may be lower than that in China, so it is natural for industries to return. However, it is hard to say how much it can flow back. After all, at present, the domestic Internet of Things industry revolution is in full swing, and it is not too early to draw a conclusion about which is higher or lower.

Third, the essence: re-industrialization in the United States is not impossible. The key depends on several factors. As the saying goes, anything is possible! The same is true of re-industrialization in the United States. In my opinion, the key to its success depends on several factors:

The first is the technical factor. Because of the high labor cost and strong trade unions in the United States, the China model is not applicable to the United States. China once proposed industrial upgrading when the labor cost was gradually increasing and the profit of labor-intensive enterprises was difficult, but it was later dropped. The premise of American re-industrialization is that capitalist entrepreneurs need strong technical support to make production highly automated and intelligent.

The second is capital support. The United States is financially developed and speculative. Wall Street and Jewish capital consortia are not interested in traditional industries. Cutting leeks in bonus hunter is their specialty, while American capital belongs to parasitic capital. Capitalists are not interested in investing in traditional industries, especially those with high investment, automation, intelligence and low profits. This is a problem to be solved by the US government.

The third is resources and energy. Traditional industries are unfriendly to the environment, polluting and consuming more energy, and the source of raw materials needs to be solved. It is difficult to establish a complete industrial chain. Of course, due to the vigorous development of shale oil and shale gas, American energy is cheap. The United States still has huge coal resources and needs to sacrifice the environment.

The fourth is trade. Will the global free trade system be destroyed? Otherwise, the traditional industries in the United States will face great competition and it will be difficult to survive under the impact of price wars. Therefore, the United States will adopt a trade protectionist policy and build trade barriers, and the free trade system will no longer exist. This act of reversing history against globalization will aggravate conflicts between countries, the world will be in turmoil, and it will be difficult for the United States to be immune to it.

However, the ideal is full, the reality is skinny, and both China and the United States are the same. The road to re-industrialization in the United States will be tortuous and arduous. The global economic recession will be a new normal, and the far-reaching impact of this change is enormous and unknowable.

The last sentence: it is a fact that the greed of capitalists hollowed out the United States. In fact, it is possible for the United States to re-industrialize, but there is no way for traditional low-end manufacturing to recover. Workers can't achieve re-employment by improving their academic qualifications, and capitalists tear the social structure of the United States in order to earn more profits for themselves.

Let's just say it's hard. It's too difficult.

Theoretically, American re-industrialization must meet the following conditions.

First of all, it seems impossible to have a unified political environment and commit to industrialization and the president. The Democratic Party will not do such a thing, and neither * * nor the Party is interested. The only person who is interested in getting to know Wang is still worried.

The second is to have a perfect education system. Train qualified engineers and skilled workers for industrialization. At least it is impossible to see America now. Capable local whites have to study finance or law. Now the United States is just eating old technology to attract some foreign talents. The key point is that in recent years, the United States has engaged in political persecution, and it is difficult for China science and engineering students to stay in the United States. What do other students majoring in finance and law want? Besides China people, which foreign students want to be engineers and workers who don't earn money? They all went to finance, law and software.

How many years ago, Boeing 747 was still a model, and now it is still flying with great security risks. Don't Boeing want to make a new model?

Why is it so difficult for the United States to restart the moon landing program? You know, even if the United States landed on the moon for the first time, there was still some. Even if the designers and manufacturers at that time died, at least there were drawings, right? But I can't arrive on time. Now I'm going to test the Russian rocket to the space station.

How to solve these two key problems? Personally, it is estimated that even if Sleeping King works hard now, it will take at least 20 years for the United States to complete re-industrialization, and the accumulation of talents alone is enough for the United States to work hard.

The United States has been deindustrialized for twenty or thirty years, and both technical engineers and skilled workers have been lost. At present, it is estimated that there are no vocational schools and vocational colleges to train skilled workers in the United States, so how can we find teachers? Even if great efforts are made to establish vocational schools, are the younger generation in the United States willing to go to vocational schools? In addition, senior officials of the US government shouted to move the production line back to the United States. These four-body, four-grain politicians are really full of unknown addresses, just open their mouths and come! It is easy to move one, two or even ten production lines back to the United States, but it is even more difficult to move the industrial chain back. No five or ten years is impossible. Finally, the labor force of American workers is the most expensive in the world. In other words, the production cost is also the highest in the world. Of course, some people want your sophisticated products, but if they are ordinary industrial products and daily necessities, who can afford them? Therefore, the so-called "re-industrialization of the United States" is a fake issue, which is simply impossible to achieve!

According to the original wishful thinking of American think tanks, as long as the United States controls finance (that is, dollar hegemony), high technology (intellectual property rights) and energy (mainly oil), and leaves bitter, tired, dirty and polluting industries to other countries, everything can be tolerated. The result was embarrassing. First, the American subprime mortgage crisis in 2008 broke this dream of the United States, and the plight of the grassroots white people (known as red necks) became a major problem in the United States. Trump narrowly beat Hillary Clinton mainly by this ticket warehouse. Secondly, this is an epidemic storm in COVID-19. Simple masks, protective clothing, ventilators, etc. Put the United States in a very passive and embarrassing position. It has prompted the United States to make up its mind to achieve re-industrialization on the basis of Trump's past industrial return. But, it's easy to talk about?

First, the current national conditions in the United States are simply not suitable for capital investment 1 industry. Capitalists aim at the ratio of input to output, that is, they are always pursuing the maximization of profits. They prefer countries and regions with large market, low labor cost and favorable social environment for enterprise development.

The biggest problem in America is labor cost.

(1), American workers work five days a week and eight hours a day. There are holidays, and no one can afford them. And there is a tendency to work hard in the direction of 5 days and 6 hours. Not even one more minute, double overtime.

Due to fierce market competition, enterprises need to work overtime frequently. And there is no overtime pay, or the overtime pay is low. This is obviously a big conflict.

(2) The hourly wages of white-collar workers and blue-collar workers in the United States are several times higher than ours and much higher than those in some backward countries.

The working environment of American workers is quite demanding, and the investment of capitalists is definitely much more.

In the United States, trade unions in all walks of life are defending workers' rights and interests, which is prone to collective strikes, which really makes capitalists feel nothing but fear.

The distribution cost of five insurances and one gold for American employees is also several times higher than that of countries outside Europe. This requires the company to pay the bill.

Second, the capital forcibly brought in by the United States in recent years can only cope with running errands many years later. 1, has entered the United States a few years ago or has returned to the United States.

Our industrial projects have been put into production one after another, and these bosses are miserable, and most of them are in labor and capital difficulties.

Due to the military and technical strength of the United States, some enterprises have to set up factories in the United States. However, who will seriously do something that makes less money and is difficult to make money? ! Unless it is an American boss with particularly strong American nationalism.

With the development of society, capitalists have long been internationalized. In other words, they have basically regarded the whole earth as their home and the whole world as their investment option. Are there any capitalists with particularly strong American nationalism?

Objectively speaking, from a technical point of view, if the United States is re-industrialized, it will be no problem for the United States to become a manufacturing power again. But re-industrialization in the United States is almost impossible. Take the GDP division of the United States in 2020 as an example. In 2020, the GDP of the United States is 2 1 trillion dollars, but in this 2 1 trillion dollars, the GDP of the tertiary industry accounts for 8 1.5%. Excluding mining, agriculture, forestry and animal husbandry, the proportion of manufacturing industry is only 1 1%. The American lawyer industry alone contributed 6% of GDP, that is, more than 1 trillion dollars. There should be no more than 20 countries in the world whose GDP reaches 1 trillion dollars. All service industries do not directly create material wealth. Therefore, the United States cannot do the following. Re-industrialization in the United States is almost impossible.

First, there should be enough industrial workers in re-industrialization, and these industrial workers should also have the spirit of hard work. These Americans have obviously left. Now the United States is "politically correct" and "liberal democracy". Obviously, there are not so many qualified industrial workers.

In order to re-industrialize, America can never reduce the production cost. At present, the manufacturing industry in the United States relies on high technology to maintain additional production costs. Take the plane as an example. There are only two manufacturers of civil airliners in the world, either Boeing or Airbus. If Comac China develops smoothly, their good days will soon come to an end.

Third, a complete industrial chain is needed for re-industrialization, and a complete industrial chain is needed for reconstruction in the United States. Then the manpower and material resources needed are not trillions. This requires enough people, enough money, enough market and enough time. Obviously, these are not available.