Sisso Europe Review

Editor's Note This article is a column 13 of Siso European Review jointly launched by the European Research Team of Shanghai National Institute of Global Governance and Regional Studies of Shanghai International Studies University and the International Department of Papers.

The Socialist Party and the Harmony Party, the two traditional left and right parties in France, have decided on candidates for next year's presidential election, and both of them are women.

Can the traditional left-right party, which has been declining in recent years, regain its glory by two female generals? The French presidential election in 2022 is approaching.

At present, the two traditional political parties, the Socialist Party and the Republican Party, have decided their respective presidential candidates, and both of them are women.

The traditional French left and right wing parties have been in power in turn for nearly 60 years.

However, after the end of the Cold War, the cohesion of political parties based on class/stratum gradually declined, and French society and even the whole of Europe were constantly impacted by economic crisis, immigration and terrorism, and the influence of populism further expanded. The left-wing socialist party and the right-wing * * * and the party have gradually lost their traditional influence.

20 17 French presidential election, these two political parties were eliminated before the second round of presidential election, and the political pattern of alternating governance of left and right political parties in France came to an end.

20 17 French President elected a self-proclaimed centrist President Macron.

Although the "non-left and non-right" open government has absorbed the elites of the left and right factions, it has also intensified the further division within the traditional left and right factions with serious differences.

As Macron's self-proclaimed "beyond the left and right political differences" movement "March with the country" shows signs of lack of stamina, more than half of his campaign promises have not been fulfilled. Obviously, the emergence of the new party cannot immediately solve the various problems facing France.

All these factors bring more uncertainty to the upcoming presidential election in 2022.

Although there are only less than five months left before the presidential election, French politics is still dominated by the pattern of division, showing an unprecedented "fragmentation".

At present, it seems that next year's election may also be the last chance for the traditional left and right parties to revive, and both parties have also put forward female candidates to make a final effort.

So, will France elect the first female president in history next year? It is difficult for the socialist party to enter the second round of elections. The Socialist Party still hasn't recovered from the 20 17 election defeat.

Recent polls show that the second round of the 2022 presidential election may not form an alliance with the left.

However, the leftists still haven't given up their dream of the leftist candidates entering the second round of the presidential election.

Anna Hidalgo The French Socialist Party recommended Anna Hidalgo as a candidate this time.

The 62-year-old female candidate was elected mayor of Paris on 20 14-this was the first time that a woman was in power in Paris, and she was re-elected in 2020.

Hidalgo officially announced his candidacy in Rouen in June 5438+00, and recently won the support of the Socialist Party.

Judging from the qualification of its socialist presidential candidate, it seems that a certain understanding has been reached within the socialist party.

After the fiasco in the last general election, the Socialist Party directly decided to support Hidalgo as the presidential candidate, in order to avoid further division within the party, and also to unite the forces within the party as soon as possible and attract local voters.

However, the split within the Socialist Party still exists, and Arno Montebu, a socialist who served as the Minister of Economy in Hollande's government, also announced his participation in the presidential election as a non-partisan person.

Because Hidalgo's resume is similar to that of former President Jacques Chirac, she was elected as Prime Minister by the Socialist Party.

Chirac/kloc-was mayor of Paris in 0/7, and195 was elected president of France.

Hidalgo thinks that her experience in managing the French capital can surpass that of many competitors.

However, the background of the mayor of Paris has not only brought her prestige and status, but also become her weakness: in an era when people are generally hostile to the urban elite, foreigners' arrogant impression of the capital Paris may be a disadvantage.

On the other hand, during her tenure as mayor of Paris, she took strong climate measures to improve the quality of life of citizens, such as extending bicycle lanes, pushing cars out of the capital, and turning Paris into a green "15 minute city", that is, everything residents need can be found within a short walking distance.

These strict environmental policies are controversial.

Opponents believe that these measures are completely elitist, which further proves that Paris is becoming a city for the rich.

However, Hidalgo's personal experience is also a powerful campaign card: she is a descendant of working-class Spanish immigrants and grew up to be the mayor of Paris through personal struggle.

She chose the shipyard in Rouen, northwest China, rather than the luxurious city hall to announce her candidacy. In her speech, she mentioned her growing experience in the workers' residential area in Lyon, and "I hope all children in France will have the same opportunities as me".

The Socialist Party believes that the failure of the last election was largely due to the disappointment of the French people when the former president and socialist Hollande came to power, and Macron's "solo flight" also took away a considerable number of supporters of the Socialist Party.

They hope that Hidalgo's reputation and political contacts as the mayor of Paris for many years can gather support and avoid the tepid situation caused by Education Minister Amon as a candidate before 20 17.

However, at present, the overall political atmosphere in French society is to the right, and the left-wing parties are not dominant even if they unite.

In this election, the left-wing parties are still difficult to unite, and three far-left parties "New Anti-Capitalism", Workers' Struggle Party and "Unyielding France" have also put forward their own presidential candidates.

At present, polls show that Hidalgo, as a socialist candidate, can only get 7% to 9% of the votes in the first round of presidential voting in April next year, and there is almost no possibility of participating in the second round of competition.

Valerie Pecresse Pecresse has become a serious challenge for Macron. At the +0-4 National Party Congress from June 65438 to February 65438, the traditional right-wing party * * and the Party voted to confirm Valerie Pecresse as "the first female presidential candidate elected by the parties of Charles de Gaulle, Pompidou, Chirac and Sarkozy".

Pecresse, 54, is a professor of constitution at the Paris School of Political Science. He is an adviser to former President Jacques Chirac. He was elected as a member of the National Assembly in 2002 and was re-elected in 2007.

During Sarkozy's presidency, she served as minister of higher education and research and government spokesman in Fillon's cabinet.

* * * and the party's primary election experienced four TV debates, and the competition was fierce. The final result is not exactly the same as that of the poll.

In previous polls, Beltram had the highest voice, with more than 700 young people and Republicans calling for voting for Beltram.

According to their view, Beltram is the only one who can defeat the extreme right in the second round of elections, compete with Macron and prevent the traditional right from dying out.

However, Beltram failed to advance to the second round of intra-party elections.

Since then, the other three unsuccessful candidates have expressed their support for Pecresse, who won the title of * * * and the candidate of the party with absolute advantage in the second round of elections.

The result of the inner-party election is also related to the accusation that the right is facing compromise with the far right.

Pecresse and Beltram, two right-wing heavyweights, left the Party in 20 19 and 20 17 respectively and returned to the Party in order to participate in the presidential primary election.

The right wing is very unstable, and as the primary election approaches, the quarrels and differences within the party intensify.

Reno Mouselli1October 24th, the mayor of Provence-Alpes-C? te d 'Azur region in southeastern France, announced his resignation from the party. He condemned Joti Jean, a member of the National Assembly who was competing with Pecresse for the party's presidential nomination, and the party's slide to the far right, calling Joti a "false nose of the far right".

In this candidate election, three people who lost in the first round turned to support Pecresse for fear that the traditional right wing would turn to the extreme right.

Pecresse's advantage lies in her absolute support in * * * and the Party.

In 20 17, she was supported by party candidates Fillon, * * * * and party chairman Christian yakubu. Beltram also expressed support for Pecresse, followed by former President Nicolas Sarkozy, who was very influential in the right-wing camp.

Beltram himself served as French Minister of Labor and Minister of Finance, and he is very experienced in solving the problems brought by * *.

And * * * and the grassroots forces in the party are far stronger than Le Pen's "National Alliance" or Macron's "* * * and the progress of the country".

In the French town elections and Senate re-election in 2020, the * * * Party maintained its basic position, holding more than half of large and medium-sized cities and still occupying a majority of seats in the Senate; In the regional election of 20021,* * and members of the party also won the seats of presidents of five regional parliaments in France 17, and their grassroots strength should not be underestimated.

* * * The confirmation of the candidate by the Republican Party has greatly encouraged right-wing voters, which may pull back wavering voters and attract more voters to vote.

According to ELABE's latest poll, Pecresse's support rate has risen sharply after the right wing decided on the candidate, second only to Macron, and it is expected to surpass Macron in the second round election.

In his televised speech, Pecresse criticized Macron's ruling performance, including that the large-scale referendum after the "Yellow Vest" movement did not get feedback, and the reform policy followed the traditional right-wing reform policy, but was restricted by the left in the party, so that the reform was not thorough and did not achieve the expected goal.

These criticisms are very threatening to Macron.

As a traditional rightist, she also partially absorbed some extreme right views such as anti-immigration, and did not rule out the possibility of grabbing some votes from Macron and the extreme right.

Pecresse's disadvantage is also obvious: the scandals of Sarkozy and Fillon still hit the right, and the people's negative views on * * * and the party have not disappeared.

However, these two * * * and party dignitaries were able to give her the greatest support in the election.

Poll data show that only half of Pecresse's potential voters are sure to vote for her, and the rest are still wavering.

Generally speaking, the voter turnout in recent presidential elections and municipal and regional elections is not high, and the people's disappointment with the current political parties and politics has lasted for a long time.

How to rebuild the image of himself and the Party, how to convince swing voters and how to mobilize more voters to participate in the election will become the main problems that Pecresse will face next.

Perhaps Pecresse's greatest strength is the weakness of its competitors.

Poll data show that every time * * turns heavy, Macron's support rate drops.

At present, the five-wave overlapping holiday is coming, and it is not known whether Macron can be reversed. In the eyes of the people, Le Pen, the far right, is facing the impact of Zemur, who is known as "Trump of France".

Is it possible for * * * who reached an understanding with the * * Party to fully support Pecresse as the first female president in French history? The answer will gradually become clear in the coming months.