Is the UK's "Brexit" negotiations stuck in a "swamp zone"?

Nearly a month after the "truce", the second round of British "Brexit" negotiations began on the 17th at the EU headquarters in Brussels, Belgium.

Analysts believe that as the "Brexit" negotiations enter a "tough period", the disputes between the two sides around core issues will gradually heat up. Under the constraints of many factors, the difficulty of negotiations will also increase sharply. As the deadline approaches, time is running out for both parties to bargain.

“Here comes the hard nut to crack”

According to the schedule announced by the EU, this round of negotiations will start on the 17th and end on the 20th.

Both parties are well prepared: after the first round of negotiations, the EU has published 14 position papers, covering jurisdiction, nuclear materials and protection devices, the status and rights of EU institutions in the UK, etc. issues; the UK has published three major position papers, covering issues such as UK-EU relations and cooperation between the UK and the European Atomic Energy Community.

The British media used the term "the first comprehensive dialogue" to describe the second round of negotiations. In their view, the first round of negotiations is just an "appetizer" and the second round of negotiations is the "real deal". In the words of Michel Barnier, the EU's chief Brexit negotiator, the start of the second round of negotiations means "a hard nut to crack is here."

Barnier once warned the UK that if it cannot take the lead in making progress on the three core issues of "citizens' rights", "breakup fees" and "EU-UK border", then the British government is eager to "break up" The "new free trade relationship between Britain and Europe" and other issues reached before the "Britain and Europe" will not be discussed at all.

Contradictions and differences are getting bigger and bigger

Analysts believe that the differences between the two sides are currently fermenting in two dimensions: "vertical" and "horizontal". The original contradictions are deepening and new contradictions are emerging one after another. .

First of all, the disputes between the two sides on core issues continue to intensify. As far as citizens’ rights are concerned, the EU hopes that the rights of citizens of the remaining 27 EU countries living in the UK will remain “business as usual” before the UK leaves the EU.

However, the plan proposed by the UK "surprised" the EU: before the deadline, EU citizens who have lived in the UK for five years will obtain "settled status" and can continue to stay in the UK. Enjoy the same treatment as British citizens in terms of medical care, education and pensions. EU citizens who have lived in the UK for less than five years before the deadline will be allowed to stay in the UK until the five-year period is reached. Citizens of EU countries who arrive in the UK after the deadline and before the official "Brexit" will be given a "grace period" of approximately two years. During the "grace period", they can only be regarded as "immigrants".

It is worth noting that the British government has not yet determined a "deadline".

Peter Serra, a defense lawyer at the Scottish EU Affairs Advisory Center, believes that by setting deadlines and grace periods, the British government is actually preparing to "treat" EU citizens in the country "differently" from British citizens, which is different from the EU A far cry from the requirement to “maintain the status quo.”

On the issue of "breakup fees", the EU emphasizes that the UK must comply with the financial obligations it committed as a member of the EU. British Foreign Secretary Johnson recently responded forcefully, saying that the EU's demand for excessive "Brexit" costs from the UK is "blackmail" and the UK cannot accept it.

At the same time, more conflicts between the two sides in other fields are also emerging. Regarding the relocation of EU institutions, the EU has previously announced that it has approved the relocation process of the European Banking Authority and the European Medicines Agency from London, UK. The British side prefers to keep the headquarters of these two major institutions in London and intends to discuss this issue in the "Brexit" negotiations.

In addition, the UK hopes that the EU will quickly introduce a "package of safeguard conditions" to ensure the relevant rights of 1 million British citizens in the EU. However, the EU believes that this matter is quite complicated and should be considered in the long term.

Time is tight and tasks are heavy

There are many conflicts, but time is running out. The negotiating parties may only have more than a year left. According to EU law, the EU and the UK need to complete Brexit negotiations before March 29, 2019. Barnier hopes that the final version of the "Withdrawal" agreement can be completed by October 2018, so that the European Parliament and the European Council can approve the agreement before the deadline.

Recently, France and Germany have become closer, and the EU has strengthened its position coordination on the "Brexit" issue.

It is foreseeable that the EU will straighten its back in future negotiations, and the extent to which it can demonstrate its willingness to compromise will become one of the key factors affecting the negotiation process.

Looking at the UK, various domestic factions are arguing over the path to "Brexit", and the government's internal position is not unified. Therefore, compared with the EU, the UK will face more constraints in this round of negotiations.

The debate between various factions in the UK over "hard Brexit" and "soft Brexit" has been ongoing. British Finance Minister Hammond said on the 16th that in order to better protect the country's economy, the British government recognized that "Brexit" requires transitional arrangements.

However, the British media has doubts about the extent to which Hammond's remarks represent the position of the British government. Hammond voted against the EU referendum last year and has been regarded as a "soft Brexit" supporter in Theresa May's cabinet.

Analysts believe that Hammond's remarks further exposed the differences within the British government on the path to "Brexit", which may lead to the "derailment" of the "Brexit" negotiations.

Former British Cabinet Secretary Gus O'Donnell commented that there seems to be no agreement on "Brexit" among British cabinet members, let alone between the United Kingdom and the European Union. He believes there is little hope that the two sides can reach an agreement through negotiations before the March 2019 deadline.

The EU has been putting pressure on the UK, hoping that the UK can "seize the time" and promote the implementation of the "Brexit" negotiations as scheduled, so as to achieve the goal of completing the negotiations within two years.