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The global auto industry is in the shadow of the COVID-19 epidemic. As of March 30th, hundreds of automobile factories in 26 countries have stopped production, and more than140,000 automobile workers are facing employment problems. The next chain reaction may lead to a decrease of 654.38+06% (about 654.38+058 million vehicles) in global automobile production in 2020, which is close to the annual sales of the whole European market. Overseas factories have collapsed one after another, but automobile factories in various parts of China have basically resumed normal production, and many automobile companies also regard China as a safe haven.

The darkest hour

The following is the situation that the car factory stopped production.

From a regional perspective, most automobile factories in North America, Europe and Southeast Asia (including Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and Thailand) are in a state of suspension, which is the most densely populated area for automobile manufacturing.

Almost no brand manufacturers are spared. Volkswagen, Daimler, BMW, PSA, Renault, Volvo, FCA, Ford, GM, Tesla, Hyundai and Japan have all closed their factories one after another, and there is no exact time to resume work.

In addition to the large-scale closure of automobile factories, parts suppliers such as Bosch and Chinese mainland have not been spared. On March 20th, Bosch and China, the world's first and second largest auto parts suppliers, announced that they would stop production in Europe. Earlier, Magna and Michelin had announced the suspension of some European factories.

China may face a second shock.

In China, it's a different story. In March, with the weakening of the epidemic, the resumption of production in various industries is proceeding in an orderly manner. In Hubei province, which was most affected by the epidemic, the production order of vehicle manufacturing and parts enterprises began to gradually recover. Among them, the first-level suppliers of Wuhan automobile enterprises approved to resume work 100%, and the overall rate of resuming work exceeded 95%. The supply chain risk caused by the supplier's failure to return to work has been basically relieved. Wuhan Development Zone, where spare parts enterprises are the most concentrated, had 175 industrial enterprises as the first-class suppliers of Dongfeng, and started 173, with an operating rate of 98.86%.

Although China's automobile factories have almost fully resumed production, the automobile industry chain has the characteristics of high degree of global integration, long chain links and many participants. It is almost impossible for a single country or region to complete all the supply chain layout, and there are still a large number of auto parts, materials and equipment that need to be purchased from abroad. Among them, the United States, Japan and Germany basically monopolize the core part of the whole automobile industry chain, especially in the supply system of automobile parts, Germany, Japan, South Korea and the United States are the main importers of automobile parts in China.

According to customs statistics, the transaction volume of auto parts in China last year was $367 1 1 billion. Among them, the total transaction volume of Germany, Japan, South Korea and the United States reached US$ 24.645 billion, accounting for 6.7 1%. It can be said that if all the automobile supply chain enterprises in these countries stop production and supply, it will directly threaten the production of domestic automobile enterprises and even cause a "secondary impact" on China automobile industry.

In addition, with the large-scale outbreak of COVID-19 epidemic overseas, it will also affect the pace of automobile import and export, and China's automobile export volume will be further affected after March. However, due to the suspension of production in overseas factories, the sales of imported models in China will be affected and the delivery will be delayed. According to the forecast of China Automobile Strategy and Policy Research Center, the export volume of whole vehicles will drop by about 5% this year, and the export of spare parts will drop by about 10%.

China's strategic position in the market has been further improved.

At present, the domestic epidemic situation is in the best control state, and the national level and various provinces and cities have successively introduced policies to stimulate automobile consumption. Therefore, the income of multinational automobile enterprises will be more dependent on the China market, and China will play a more important role in the future development of the global automobile industry.

Recently, Herbert Diss, CEO of Volkswagen Group (Herbert? Diess) said: "Volkswagen has sales all over the world, but at present there is no sales or income outside China, and during this period, we still have to bear high fixed costs, about 2 billion euros per week. Although the demand in China has rebounded again, the output is only half of that before the crisis. " In the middle of this month, at the online communication meeting of Audi ag 2020 media, Diss also said: "The China market is recovering faster than other markets and will play an important role in the subsequent development of the Group. Our investment confidence in China has not been affected by the epidemic. I believe that by the end of this year, the China auto market will have better results. " Between the lines, it fully expressed Volkswagen Group's recognition of the epidemic prevention work of the China government and placed deep expectations on the China market.

Confidence in the China market is also attributed to Daimler CEO Kang Song Lin (Ola? Kallenius) dares to refuse to apply for the financial aid plan of the German government. In an interview with European media, he said: "Daimler has sufficient cash flow at present and does not need to apply for state aid." What really makes him optimistic is that Mercedes-Benz's factory in China has been fully resumed, most dealers have reopened, consumers have returned to the market, and consumer demand is picking up.

In addition, Gao Le, President and CEO of BMW Group Greater China, said at the March 18 financial report conference: "Although the epidemic will have a great impact on 2020, especially in the first half of the year, the overall situation in China is still optimistic. The BMW Group is very optimistic about the medium and long-term development of China, will continue to promote all investment projects in China, and is also discussing increasing investment in China. " This speech fully demonstrated the BMW Group's "love" for China.

According to relevant forecasts, in 2020, affected by the COVID-19 epidemic and other factors, global automobile sales are expected to drop by 3.5%-4%. Due to the epidemic, automobile enterprises in Europe, America, Japan and South Korea cannot recover their production capacity and sales volume in a short time, which will ultimately affect the overall sales volume.

However, various industrial enterprises in China have resumed production and work, and promoting consumption has become one of the key concerns of the government. Different provinces and cities have successively introduced relevant policies to stimulate automobile consumption, which have been preferential and simplified in taxation and transactions. The Ministry of Commerce of China pointed out at the press conference on March 28th that the automobile is a strategic pillar industry of the national economy, with a high proportion of automobile consumption, large growth space and strong driving efficiency, which is the main content of upgrading the consumption structure.

In 2020, the sales volume of China automobile market will decline for the third year. However, with the global spread of the epidemic, the strategic significance of China market will be more and more profound. With the expansion and upgrading of market supply, consumption upgrading, consumption network, consumption ecology, consumption capacity and consumption environment, China is expected to play the role of leading the global automobile industry out of the shadow of the epidemic.

This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.